ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[HurrMark]

Here is a question...I know in a hurricane the worst time for surge is when the cyclone hits at high tide. Is it different in this situation since the storm will be many miles south and the fetch would be going on for many miles towards the west...from what I can see, 'Sandy's landfall will be at roughly 2 AM Tuesday, which is getting close to low tide at the Battery. If it works the same in this case, that may be the saving grace for New York.

Depending on exactly the center crosses the coast will be key to some degree...but all extra-tropical surge models show very severe water level rise at the Monday evening high tide...records in many areas. Add onto that 10-15 waves into the beach and the damage is going to be really really bad...I cannot stress enough the danger from the surge from southern NJ to RI including all of Long Island, Long Island Sound and New York City.

So what exactly would keep the surge from topping the banks at the Battery? A more NW landfall?

[ozonepete]

I am so often here checking on what the Caribbean has to face and to get advice and comment (and support) from other members - from elsewhere in the Caribbean but certainly the majority of whom are in the USA. I find it bizarre that now I'm looking to see what danger my aged aunt in North Haledon, NJ is facing from a still tropical hurricane!!

It's almost the second anniversary of Tomas (30 October 2010) which was one rough 24 hours for St Lucia. Good luck to all friends facing this storm and indeed to all Americans over the next few days. Believe me, we're all shouting for you. Be safe.

I couldn't agree more. Now its our time here in the Caribbean to offer support and encouragement to our friends and family in the NE and I have plenty.
I am following this closely.
Be careful up there!

Thanks very much guys. It's usually the other way around. Very rare to see a threat this big headed right at us. I am really concerned about the coastal flood and wave damage to the area's beach communities. Just hope they play it safe and evacuate.

[CajunMama]

Here's the online version for the newspaper for Monmouth and Ocean counties, NJ, The Asbury Park Press. http://www.app.com

Gannett only lets you view so many articles so if you run out of free views, check your cookies and clear app.com cookie and you can start all over again.

[Weatherguy173]

what do you think about the rainfall predictions in NE New Jersey?

[wxman57]

How bad could this thing possibly be?

I mean, it won't be as bad as say...Ike will it?

anyone?

Your question is too ambiguous to answer.

[ozonepete]

Here is a question...I know in a hurricane the worst time for surge is when the cyclone hits at high tide. Is it different in this situation since the storm will be many miles south and the fetch would be going on for many miles towards the west...from what I can see, 'Sandy's landfall will be at roughly 2 AM Tuesday, which is getting close to low tide at the Battery. If it works the same in this case, that may be the saving grace for New York.

Depending on exactly the center crosses the coast will be key to some degree...but all extra-tropical surge models show very severe water level rise at the Monday evening high tide...records in many areas. Add onto that 10-15 waves into the beach and the damage is going to be really really bad...I cannot stress enough the danger from the surge from southern NJ to RI including all of Long Island, Long Island Sound and New York City.

So what exactly would keep the surge from topping the banks at the Battery? A more NW landfall?

Only a landfall east of NYC can help now. Then we'd have NW winds at the Battery and we'd be ok. But none of the models are showing that.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Only a landfall east of NYC can help now. Then we'd have NW winds at the Battery and we'd be ok. But none of the models are showing that.

Don't you mean west of NYC?

[ozonepete]

Only a landfall east of NYC can help now. Then we'd have NW winds at the Battery and we'd be ok. But none of the models are showing that.

Don't you mean west of NYC?

No. I mean east of NYC. If the center crosses the coast east of NYC, over central Long Island for example, the counterclockwise winds aroung the eye (or LLC) will cause winds to be north to northwest over NYC which will push the water AWAY from the Battery and out of New York Harbor towards the southeast.

If the center comes in to the south and west of us the winds will be southeast which will push the water into New York Harbor and over the seawall at the Battery. Unfortunately that's the expected scenario.

[HenkL]

Please don't underestimate the surges. Too many people did so in 2008 when Ike went down from a cat 4 to cat 2 ('oh, only 2') before reaching the Galveston area. Sandy also is a very large storm, which pushes enormous amounts of water to the shores.

[KBBOCA]

A really wild pic from the outerbanks of North Carolina posted in the comments at Wunderground tonight.



I never knew sea foam could be whipped up and blown around like that!!! It looks like shaving cream!

For more pix from the outerbanks, see comment 154 on this thread
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2279

[WeatherGuesser]

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 70.9W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES

[jaxfladude]

Prayers bump....

[galaxy401]

That picture looks like a heavy snowstorm! Amazing how strong the waves are! They really got to be careful...

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Only a landfall east of NYC can help now. Then we'd have NW winds at the Battery and we'd be ok. But none of the models are showing that.

Don't you mean west of NYC?

No. I mean east of NYC. If the center crosses the coast east of NYC, over central Long Island for example, the counterclockwise winds aroung the eye (or LLC) will cause winds to be north to northwest over NYC which will push the water AWAY from the Battery and out of New York Harbor towards the southeast.

If the center comes in to the south and west of us the winds will be southeast which will push the water into New York Harbor and over the seawall at the Battery. Unfortunately that's the expected scenario.

Ah I see, sorry I got east & west mixed up (guess I've been looking at this screen too long). Indeed, every model is showing the storm center making landfall over NJ most haven't been showing a Long Island or Mass. landfall for roughly two days now. My thoughts & prayers are with you.

[SouthFLTropics]

Beech Mountain Ski Resort in North Carolina is already reporting snow falling there. I feel like I'm living in bizarro world with snow being mentioned in an NHC advisory.

SFT

[jeff]

Here is a question...I know in a hurricane the worst time for surge is when the cyclone hits at high tide. Is it different in this situation since the storm will be many miles south and the fetch would be going on for many miles towards the west...from what I can see, 'Sandy's landfall will be at roughly 2 AM Tuesday, which is getting close to low tide at the Battery. If it works the same in this case, that may be the saving grace for New York.

Depending on exactly the center crosses the coast will be key to some degree...but all extra-tropical surge models show very severe water level rise at the Monday evening high tide...records in many areas. Add onto that 10-15 waves into the beach and the damage is going to be really really bad...I cannot stress enough the danger from the surge from southern NJ to RI including all of Long Island, Long Island Sound and New York City.

So what exactly would keep the surge from topping the banks at the Battery? A more NW landfall?

At this point...it appears little..the center would need to pass east of that location with N and NW flow and that looks highly unlikely at this point.

[HurrMark]

Yeah, that's what I thought. The Weather Channel (Brian Norcross of all people) says the timing of the landfall to high tide is critical for lower Manhattan, but I didn't think that was acritical factor in this case...thanks for confirming.

[Terry]

From Rodanthe on the OBX. I've seen several photos of homes being threatened on knocked down out there.
Tomorrow morning high tide will be especially bad on the sound side. Not unusual for them, but still sad to see.

[k-man]

I haven't posted here in years since moving back to NJ in 2007. We're in Red Bank NJ now and it seems like we're in for an historic storm. I've lived through hurricanes here on the Jersey Shore and was here for Irene last year. This one seems like a whole different level.

All east bound traffic to the barrier islands stopped today at 4 pm. Only essential traffic after midnight tonight. All schools and offices closed for Monday and Tuesday.

Wind is really picking up already this evening. I'll be happy to report in as I can with real conditions from my iPhone once we lose power. Everyone here seems to be taking this storm seriously.

Best of luck to all!!

[KBBOCA]

Having just posted on the IKE values above for wind and surge, it will be interesting to see whether using those numbers (more than the SSHS) proves to be helpful. Not wanting to reignite that debate here - there's a thread on Talking Tropics for that.

However, the fact that this is not a traditional hurricane MAY turn out to be a blessing. There is not much of the "oh this is just a category 1 storm" that I'm hearing of now. Somehow folks (at least in NJ and the NY Metro) seem to be more focused on the specific risks. I think that's a good thing, and predict this storm may signal the beginning of a substantive change in how storm dangers are communicated to the public. Sure the SSHS should still be used, but clearly communicating the specific dangers relative to wind, rain / inland flooding, storm surge, etc. is so important. And I think for this storm, that bridge may have been crossed. Hope so.