ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aycAvOR5Tlk&feature=share&list=UUJalVvzDyEpGjD4HtnOVkVA[/youtube]

[Ken711]

Once Sandy makes landfall, will it slow down like Isaac did in Louisiana? Any conditions to move it faster on its landfall track?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I have an eerie feeling tonight, a feeling that I've had only twice before. Once was in 1992 (when I was getting ready to ride out Hurricane Andrew in South Florida) and once was in 2005 (watching the preparations for Hurricane Katrina on CNN). I don't mean to freak anyone out, just stating how I feel. Stay safe everyone, my prayers are with you.

[ozonepete]

I drew up a little graphic to show the big difference as to whether Sandy landfalls east or west of NYC. The forecast path is the second one which of course is much worse.

THIS WOULD BE BETTTER BUT IS UNLIKELY:


THIS IS THE FORECAST:

[clipper35]

ozone nice map but you have that center of sandy that far north into nj most forcasts are now saying southern new jersey yoy know something that we dont?

[KBBOCA]

Words you don't expect to see together: this headline from NJ.com

"Sandy still a category 1 hurricane, still a 'worst-case scenario,' experts say"
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/1 ... rt_m-rpt-2

category 1 and worst-case scenario. Not usually in the same sentence like that!

[KBBOCA]

The storm is still far from the NJ coast, and it is not yet raining there, but already there is coastal flooding.



From here: http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2012/1 ... rt_m-rpt-2

[Caribwxgirl]

I haven't posted here in years since moving back to NJ in 2007. We're in Red Bank NJ now and it seems like we're in for an historic storm. I've lived through hurricanes here on the Jersey Shore and was here for Irene last year. This one seems like a whole different level.

All east bound traffic to the barrier islands stopped today at 4 pm. Only essential traffic after midnight tonight. All schools and offices closed for Monday and Tuesday.

Wind is really picking up already this evening. I'll be happy to report in as I can with real conditions from my iPhone once we lose power. Everyone here seems to be taking this storm seriously.

Best of luck to all!!

All the best to you and family.

[curmy]

Hi Everyone! I've been a long time lurker and decided I would post before we lose power...

I'm about 25 miles inland "as the crow flyes" from Lewes/Rehobeth, Delaware. Currently, we are getting light rain and light wind. We started our preps on Thursday, which basically consisted of taking "everything" out of the shed and attic. The generator started on the first pull, Thank you God! You name it, we got it. Didn't need to go to the store one thing! We are now done and ready.

We are rural and are on well water, so we will be the last to get power back on. We spent all day yesterday filling 50 gallon jugs with water and 5 gallon containers. Solar showers are filled too. I'm doing all my baking today. The pine-apple upside down cake looks devine
The pantry full of home canned foods are a blessing at a time like this.

I just heard on the local tv that mandatory evacs are underway in Ocean City and the Delaware beaches (kent county). I've also gotten several emails from Verizon advising that connectivity might be an issue during the storm. Duh, Ya' think? So, I went to my inbox and sure enough, I can't send or receive messages....No big deal, but I will miss being online and losing the satellite. The weather radio, battery operated tv, and library will fill the gap.

Thanks to everyone for all you do here. It means alot!

Regards,
Curmy

Howdy from just across the state line (Caroline County MD). Our power has already flickered once and I noticed some issues with Verizon earlier today but OK at the moment, as is Comcast. I got a chuckle when I got a robo-call from them earlier today with instructions that, should I lose connectivity, I could check their web site for updates.

Howdy backatacha! I see they have closed all the schools for Monday and Tuesday. The Choptank River might be problematic, along with all the rivers and tidal tributaries along the Chesapeake Bay. I remember when a few storms did a number on all of them.

Say Hi to the NCHS Bulldog for me! Many fond high school football memories there! Stay safe.

Regards,
Curmy

[ozonepete]

ozone nice map but you have that center of sandy that far north into nj most forcasts are now saying southern new jersey yoy know something that we dont?

I have said since Thursday evening, given the model output, the center comes ashore between Long Beach Island and Sandy Hook. But landfall anywhere from Atlantic City northward to NYC will be devastating at the coast from central Jersey to most of Long Island. Just does not look very hopeful.

[ROCK]

http://news.yahoo.com/storm-sets-off-fr ... 01851.html


so frantic rush for supplies seems a little late to me...

[chaser1]

...
1) I have family up in Woodmere (Long Island), NY. I have been pouring over model info, slosh models, etc., as well as been on the phone trying to urge them to evacuate given that they are less than a mile from Motts Creek which connects to the North Bay in S. Long Island. I am really fearful of the possibility of standing water in their house for perhaps a 24 hr. (or longer) duration - dependent on timing with astronomical tide, direction of landfall/wind direction, etc. Despite their awareness of my tropical meteorological knowledge, they are reluctant to evacuate to be with other family not too far away and out of (storm surge) harms way...

Unfortunately, the graphic below doesn't cover inland water, just the cost of Long Island south of Woodmere. I believe they're on the western side of Woodmere, as I see Motts Basin on the map. I don't know anything of the elevation of that part of Long Island, but I would think that their location could well be flooded.

Hey Wxman, I think your right on their risk in Woodmere. I was looking at the same map and found it odd how only coastal areas were represented as risk areas. Some time ago I came across a very nice (free) android app that lets you either type in an address or simply touch the screen while very zoomed in, and it will accurately provide elevation that is accurate up to a few inches =/- of accuracy. My Aunt in Woodmere is just North of Peninsula Blvd (on Andover Lane). At least by my calculations of her property (and others within blocks of her), she is at 6' abve sea level. I have serious concerns that the possibility exists that she and others nearby may have 1-2 feet of standing water in their homes during tomorrow nights high tide around 8:30pm.

[Time_Zone]

How bad could this thing possibly be?

I mean, it won't be as bad as say...Ike will it?

anyone?

Your question is too ambiguous to answer.

The storm is getting alot of hype....basically we know it's going to be bad I was wondering just how bad it's likely to be.

[monicaei]

Gcane- I cant get the URL for the YouTube from my iPad, but I want to link to another site. Can you put it up, or give me a YouTube search term?

[jinftl]

Excellent state-by-state break down by current forecast thinking from Pro Met (Angela Fritz) at wunderground - the surge threat and the large scale of this event still seem most likely to be Sandy's legacy...along with downed trees and power outages from prolonged t.s. force winds with some gusts to hurricane force esp. near the coast.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/angela ... ntrynum=30



Massachusetts

• Storm tide and surge: Up to 4 feet of storm surge on top of tides, with a 10-20% chance of surge exceeding 5 feet.

Storm tide forecast for Buzzards Bay, MA is 7-8 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Woods Hole, MA is 6-7 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Nantucket, MA is 6-7 feet.

• Wind: 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. The strongest winds will occur Monday afternoon and evening
• Rain: Widespread totals from 1.5 to 3 inches, with isolated amounts up to 5 inches
• Inland Flooding: Significant urban and small stream flooding is possible, which could linger into Tuesday.
• Power outages: Spotty power outages are possible as wind takes down branches and trees



Rhode Island

• Storm tide and surge: 4 to 5 feet of surge is possible on top of tides, with a 10-20% chance of surge exceeding 5 feet.

Storm tide forecast for Newport, RI is 8-9 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Providence, RI is 10-11 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Block Island, RI is 7-8 feet.

• Wind: 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. The strongest winds will occur Monday afternoon and evening
• Rain: Widespread totals from 1.5 to 3 inches, with isolated amounts up to 5 inches
• Inland Flooding: Significant urban and small stream flooding is possible, which could linger into Tuesday.
• Power outages: Spotty power outages are possible as wind takes down branches and trees



Connecticut

• Storm tide and surge: 6 to 9 feet of surge is possible on top of tides, with a 60% chance of surge exceeding 5 feet west of Bridgeport. Surge will be worse as you move west along the Connecticut coastline.

Storm tide forecast for New London, CT is 8-9 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Bridgeport, CT is 14-15 feet.

• Wind: 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. The strongest winds will occur Monday afternoon and evening
• Rain: Widespread totals from 1.5 to 3 inches, with isolated amounts up to 5 inches
• Inland Flooding: Significant urban and small stream flooding is possible, which could linger into Tuesday.
• Power outages: Power outages are possible as wind takes down branches and trees



New York

• Storm tide and surge:
Long Island Sound -- 6-7 feet on top of tide with a 50% chance of exceeding 7 feet. Storm tide forecast for Port Jefferson is 13-14 feet.
Manhattan -- 4-5 feet on top of tide with a 40% chance of exceeding 7 feet.
Staten Island -- 4-5 feet on top of tide with a 60% chance of exceeding 7 feet.

Storm tide forecast for Montauk, NY is 7-8 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Port Jefferson, NY is 13-14 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Kings Point, NY is 12-13 feet.
Storm tide forecast for The Battery, NY is 9-10 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Bergen Pt, NY is 10-11 feet.

• Wind: Long duration, damaging winds expected. 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 80 mph. The strongest winds will occur Monday afternoon and night.
• Rain: Widespread totals from 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts up to 6 inches, especially in the higher elevations. 1 to 2 inches PER HOUR are expected where the heaviest rain bands set up.
• Inland Flooding: Widespread urban flooding is expected Monday and into Tuesday. Fast-responding streams are expected to flood, as well. The flooding will be exacerbated by blockages in storm drains as well as rising storm tide.
• Power outages: Power outages are possible, even likely, as wind takes down branches and trees.



Pennsylvania

• Storm tide and surge: 1 to 2 feet of surge is possible on top of tides, with a 30-40% chance of surge exceeding 3 feet.

Storm tide forecast for Philadelphia, PA is 8-9 feet.

• Wind: 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph. The strongest winds will occur Monday afternoon and evening and into Tuesday. Wind speeds will increase closer to the coast.
• Rain: Widespread totals from 4 to 10 inches, with the highest amounts mainly from Philadelphia metro southward. Heavy rain is expected to begin Sunday night, with the heaviest occurring Monday night into Tuesday.
• Inland Flooding: Significant urban and small stream flooding is possible, which could linger into Tuesday. RIver flooding is possible.
• Power outages: Power outages are likely as wind takes down branches and trees.



New Jersey

• Storm tide and surge: 4 to 5 feet of surge is possible on top of tides, with a 30-50% chance of surge exceeding 7 feet. Surge will be worse as you move north along the New Jersey coastline.

Storm tide forecast for Sandy Hook, NJ is 10-11 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Atlantic City, NJ is 9-10 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Cape May, NJ is 9-10 feet.

• Wind: 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph. The strongest winds will occur Monday afternoon and evening and into Tuesday. Wind speeds will increase closer to the coast.
• Rain: Widespread totals from 4 to 10 inches. Heavy rain is expected to begin Sunday night, with the heaviest occurring Monday night into Tuesday.
• Inland Flooding: Significant urban and small stream flooding is possible, which could linger into Tuesday. RIver flooding is possible.
• Power outages: Power outages are likely as wind takes down branches and trees.



Delaware

• Storm tide and surge: 4 to 5 feet of surge is possible on top of tides, with a 20% chance of surge exceeding 6 feet.

Storm tide forecast for Reedy Point, DE is 8-9 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Lewes, DE is 9-10 feet.

• Wind: 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph. The strongest winds will occur Monday afternoon and evening and into Tuesday. Wind speeds will increase closer to the coast.
• Rain: Widespread totals from 4 to 10 inches. Heavy rain is expected to begin Sunday night, with the heaviest occurring Monday night into Tuesday.
• Inland Flooding: Significant urban and small stream flooding is possible, which could linger into Tuesday. RIver flooding is possible.
• Power outages: Power outages are likely as wind takes down branches and trees.



Maryland and Washington D.C.

• Storm tide and surge: 4 to 5 feet of surge is possible on top of tides on the ocean coast, with a 10-20% chance of surge exceeding 6 feet.
• Wind: 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. The strongest winds will occur Monday afternoon and evening and into Tuesday. Wind speeds will increase closer to the coast, and will also be stronger along the ridges.
• Rain: Widespread totals from 3 to 6 inches, with locally higher amounts, especially in the D.C. metro. Heavy rain is expected to begin Sunday night, with the heaviest occurring Monday night into Tuesday.
• Inland Flooding: Moderate to major flooding is possible on the smaller creeks and streams. Flooding is also possible on the larger mainstream rivers beyond Tuesday.
• Power outages: Power outages are likely as wind takes down branches and trees.



Virginia

• Storm tide and surge: 2 to 4 feet of surge is possible on top of tides on the ocean coast.

Storm tide forecast for Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA is 6-7 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Wachapreague, VA is 7-8 feet.
Storm tide forecast for Kiptopeke Beach, VA is 6-7 feet.

• Wind: 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. The strongest winds will occur Monday afternoon and evening and into Tuesday. Wind speeds will increase closer to the coast, and will also be stronger along the ridges.
• Rain: Widespread totals from 3 to 6 inches, with locally higher amounts, especially in the D.C. metro. Heavy rain is expected to begin Sunday night, with the heaviest occurring Monday night into Tuesday.
• Inland Flooding: Moderate to major flooding is possible on the smaller creeks and streams. Flooding is also possible on the larger mainstream rivers beyond Tuesday.
• Power outages: Power outages are likely as wind takes down branches and trees.



North Carolina

• Storm tide and surge: 2 to 4 feet of surge is possible on top of tides.

Storm tide forecast for Duck Pier, NC is 7-8 feet.

• Wind: 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph. The strongest winds will occur Monday afternoon and evening and into Tuesday. Wind speeds will increase closer to the coast, and will also be stronger along the ridges.
• Rain: Widespread totals from 3 to 6 inches, with locally higher amounts, especially in the D.C. metro. Heavy rain is expected to begin Sunday night, with the heaviest occurring Monday night into Tuesday.
• Inland Flooding: Moderate to major flooding is possible on the smaller creeks and streams. Flooding is also possible on the larger mainstream rivers beyond Tuesday.
• Power outages: Power outages are likely as wind takes down branches and trees.

[curmy]

These nuclear plants have been on my mind and I'm a wee bit worried having read this:

"For example, fuel pools in the United States store an average of ten times more radioactive fuel than stored at Fukushima, and have virtually no safety features."

More here:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/dozen-nucl ... ct/5309858

Prayers to all!

Regards,
Curmy

[flamingosun]

As a loyal lurker since 2004, I am one of the many who keeps it zipped here out of respect for those who really do know what they are saying and those in harm's way whose need is to get reliable information.

However, as a frequent cruiser, I'd like to second those who said ships are safer at sea. We've experienced 'tropical encounters' at sea on four different occasions, including Hurricane Jeanne, and an unnamed system with winds gusting to 110 mph and 20-30' seas. Modern cruise ships are equipped with amazing stabilizer systems that mitigate roll (but not pitch) to a great degree, although certainly not entirely. While anyone subject to motion sickness might not enjoy the ride, I understand the danger is significantly less than it would be to stay in port where there is some risk of the ship's mooring or anchorage lines breaking, allowing it to smash violently into the pier or another ship.

An aside: I'm not a professional mariner, but do follow ship / port activity during weather events. The closing of a port, with ships ordered out to sea in advance of an approaching storm is not uncommon. In that case, the decision seems not to be at the discretion of the vessel's captain or even the shipping company, but is enforced by the Port Authority or the US Coast Guard.

Back to lurking, with many thanks to all those who contribute their time and expertise. Just felt I might have had something to contribute for once.

And to those in Sandy's path - please stay safe. The thoughts of many are with you.

[jaxfladude]

2012. Just unreal the forecasts are.....

[yzerfan]

I'm starting to think that the NWS forecaster who dubbed this the Frankenstorm actually did emergency planners a favor. It's something that gets the right kind of attention from the general public a whole lot better than 'post-tropical cyclone Sandy' would have.

[Evenstar]

As always, I learn so much just from lurking and listening!

Stand by for self-serving inquiry:
I am in Chesapeake, VA and although the rain has been steady and it has been breezy, it certainly hasn't been anything like Irene was (as a native Californian, she was my first "tropical experience"). What can we expect from Sandy and is there any way to ballpark when it is most likely to happen?

Many thanks and my prayers go out to our neighbors to the North.