ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[bahamaswx]

More big swaths of 70+kt SFMR readings. Could easily bump her to 80mph imo.

[ozonepete]

Latest surface analysis and satellite images. Sandy still looks very healthy.

Thoughts/timeline on Sandy continuing to strengthen as a warm-core system before converting? (likely / some / unlikely) The last recon VDM aircraft still indicated a warm core at the "center."


THX for any info!

Will remain warm-core and thus mostly tropical and thus could strengthen a little in the next 6-10 hours as it moves over the Gulf Stream. After that it will not weaken due to its transistion to a hybrid, mostly cold-core system with strong divergence aloft from the approaching very cold upper level trough. So any strengthening it undergoes in the next few hours over the Gulf Stream will only add to its power as it moves into the mid-Atlantic/Northeast.

[WeatherGuesser]

Mon Oct 29, 2012 2:53am EDT

(Reuters) - U.S. stock and options markets will be closed on Monday and possibly Tuesday, the exchange operator said, going back on a plan that would have kept electronic trading going on Monday.

As Hurricane Sandy bears down on the New York area, regulators, exchanges and brokers grew increasingly worried about the integrity of markets and the safety of employees.

It will be the first time the market has closed for a weather-related event since Hurricane Gloria on September 27, 1985.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/ ... A420121029

[summersquall]

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15/KNHC/
Observation 15:
Am I reading this correctly...SFMR 90.8 mph (bolded to indicate that the readings are not suspect)?

[Cyclenall]

If anyone cares, CNN is doing live coverage of Sandy non-stop starting now (4:30 am EDT) and last night had Breaking News with 6 hours of non-stop coverage on this historic event.

Will remain warm-core and thus mostly tropical and thus could strengthen a little in the next 6-10 hours as it moves over the Gulf Stream. After that it will not weaken due to its transistion to a hybrid, mostly cold-core system with strong divergence aloft from the approaching very cold upper level trough. So any strengthening it undergoes in the next few hours over the Gulf Stream will only add to its power as it moves into the mid-Atlantic/Northeast.

Can you say why this thing is not dropping its pressure evenly because I'm getting frustrated at its foggy deepening patterns. It will drop 10 mb in 4 hours but then nothing 12 hours after. What is that? Its suppose to be bombing right now until landfall because of the gradient along with the warm-core.

Classic radar on NWS pages showing reds (50 dbz) on Dover Air Force Base, DE coverage.

[summersquall]

Looks as though Sandy is beginning her turn to the northwest.

[Hey Its Me]

Can you say why this thing is not dropping its pressure evenly because I'm getting frustrated at its foggy deepening patterns. It will drop 10 mb in 4 hours but then nothing 12 hours after. What is that? Its suppose to be bombing right now until landfall because of the gradient along with the warm-core.

Just hit 945.5 on AF302, waiting for DS./Vortex msg for conf

[Cyclenall]

Can you say why this thing is not dropping its pressure evenly because I'm getting frustrated at its foggy deepening patterns. It will drop 10 mb in 4 hours but then nothing 12 hours after. What is that? Its suppose to be bombing right now until landfall because of the gradient along with the warm-core.

Just hit 945.5 on AF302, waiting for DS./Vortex msg for conf

Yep, I saw that. However it seems every time there is a VDM its never aligned to the Hdobs or whatever for Sandy which is another non-starter.

[Hey Its Me]

Yep, I saw that. However it seems every time there is a VDM its never aligned to the Hdobs or whatever for Sandy which is another non-starter.

Don't shoot the messenger...


I think this is actually a new significant low for this specific reading.

[Hey Its Me]

Yep, DS. reports 947mb (27.96 inHg) at sea level

[JtSmarts]

5:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 29
Location: 35.9°N 70.5°W
Moving: N at 15 mph
Min pressure: 946 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

[ozonepete]

If anyone cares, CNN is doing live coverage of Sandy non-stop starting now (4:30 am EDT) and last night had Breaking News with 6 hours of non-stop coverage on this historic event.

Will remain warm-core and thus mostly tropical and thus could strengthen a little in the next 6-10 hours as it moves over the Gulf Stream. After that it will not weaken due to its transistion to a hybrid, mostly cold-core system with strong divergence aloft from the approaching very cold upper level trough. So any strengthening it undergoes in the next few hours over the Gulf Stream will only add to its power as it moves into the mid-Atlantic/Northeast.

Can you say why this thing is not dropping its pressure evenly because I'm getting frustrated at its foggy deepening patterns. It will drop 10 mb in 4 hours but then nothing 12 hours after. What is that? Its suppose to be bombing right now until landfall because of the gradient along with the warm-core.

Classic radar on NWS pages showing reds (50 dbz) on Dover Air Force Base, DE coverage.

It is all about lowest central pressure versus size. You are expecting the pressure to drop uniformly as Sandy moves north and supposedly strengthens but in truth it is not a uniform process. If all other factors remain the same and the entire low pressure area starts to expand in size the pressure will drop because it has to in order to maintain winds over a wider area. But at the same time another process can occur where convection blows up near the center and this causes the pressure to drop at the center as long as the wind field doesn’t expand. If more convection occurs near the center as the storm area is increasing you might not see any pressure decrease at all.
Finally, since the whole process is not continuous but occurs in fits and starts, you can't expect a smooth, easily followable transition.

[WeatherGuesser]

...SANDY STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS AND HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...
5:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 29
Location: 35.9°N 70.5°W
Moving: N at 15 mph
Min pressure: 946 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

[JtSmarts]

With this rate of deepening could we see Sandy reach Cat 2 strength again?

[WeatherGuesser]

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A
FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM...AND IN FACT...A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING
INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 485
MILES...780 KM.

[ozonepete]

This increases the risk for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast states. And it hasn't gotten all of the juice it can get from the Gulf Stream yet. Not what we wanted to see.

[Hey Its Me]

This increases the risk for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast states. And it hasn't gotten all of the juice it can get from the Gulf Stream yet. Not what we wanted to see.

With a storm this huge, does diurnal max/min have much of an effect if at all?

[abajan]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

There's one bit of relatively good news: Has anyone noticed that the size of the system has contracted slightly? Well, at least the area of the storm force winds: Whereas last night they extended outward up to 520 miles, this morning they extend outward up to "just" 485 miles. Of course, it's still a massive system and this post is not intended to lull anyone into thinking that the situation is no longer serious because it certainly is.

[terstorm1012]

Just watched a report on NBC New York: No one in the Rockaways apparently left.

They feel they got burned with Irene and they don't want to leave now. Sad.

did the Rockaways flood during the '62 nor'easter? That's the benchmark I've been using.

[GCANE]

Cutoff low has formed west of Sandy

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... 1505626973