ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Hogweed]

945MB from the VDM

I notice though that the NHC has been going with about 2mb below the VDMs in recent updates. I'm assuming this is because they believe they didn't hit exactly the lowest pressure with the Dropsonde?

[tolakram]

Per recon, pressure is now down to about 943mb...

Am I correct in remembering that the record low pressure for most of this area is 942 from the 1938 Long Island Express Hurricane?

from: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... _blog.html

While a couple of hurricane landfalls in Florida have produced pressures in this range, most cities in the Northeast have never reached such values, as is evident in this state-by-state roundup. The region’s lowest pressure on record occurred with the 1938 hurricane at Bellport, Long Island (946 hPa).

In the mid-Atlantic region, here are some record low pressures, which could be blown away - depending on the track of the storm:

Baltimore: 971 mb

Richmond: 966 mb

(Source: extremeweatherguide.com)

NOAA’s HPC cautions that sometimes models lower pressure in these storms too much, and favors Sandy to bottom out near 965 mb on its approach to the East Coast - which would still be in record territory in many areas.

[Hogweed]

NOAA’s HPC cautions that sometimes models lower pressure in these storms too much, and favors Sandy to bottom out near 965 mb on its approach to the East Coast - which would still be in record territory in many areas.

Bottom out near 965 when it is already at 945? Ah I see the link is a few days old.

[HurrMark]

Per recon, pressure is now down to about 943mb...

Am I correct in remembering that the record low pressure for most of this area is 942 from the 1938 Long Island Express Hurricane?

No...946. So if 945 becomes "official" and it at least stays steady-state this will beat the record.

[wxman57]

Anyone know what buoy Joe. B is talking about here on twitter?

The site http://crownweather.com has a ne data buoy site with a buoy south of Block I that has had wind gusts to 113kts.Current gust : 94

Try here and look at the buoy south of "Rhode" in "Rhode Island" due east of the mid NJ coast and due south of eastern Long Island.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=46

[artist]

many people up here are talking about how pink the sky is

you ever heard the saling adage? Red sky at night, sailors delight, red sky in morning sailors warning.

[Hogweed]

Per recon, pressure is now down to about 943mb...

Am I correct in remembering that the record low pressure for most of this area is 942 from the 1938 Long Island Express Hurricane?

No...946. So if 945 becomes "official" and it at least stays steady-state this will beat the record.

Well the Dropsonde and associated VDM recorded 945mb surface with wind 19 knots from ENE - not an estimate. How official do we need?

[Raebie]

Ocean City, MD police reporting significant damage to downtown pier at the boardwalk.

[superstareporter]

http://i.imgur.com/r8Yo4.jpg - Yesterday

http://i.imgur.com/iWl9Y.jpg - Just now

This is gonna be bad.

Can you get images throughout the coming days of this area so we have something to watch in order to get perspective on the surge?

[Frank2]

Per the current VIS photo, Sandy is a little to the right of the forecast track - seems landfall might be earlier than forecast yesterday...

Frank

P.S. As Brian Norcross said yesterday, unprecedented that the models have stayed together this long (almost one week) - I've never seen it...

[CrazyC83]

There seem to be three wind maximas setting up:

1) Primary - headed towards NYC, Long Island and southern New England then inland near 41N - about 100 kt winds aloft

2) North Secondary - headed towards northern New England (central part misses) and eventually the St. Lawrence/Ottawa Valleys and lower Great Lakes - about 80 kt winds aloft (I will likely get that tonight)

3) South Secondary - headed towards the Delmarva and the Baltimore-Washington area then the central Appalachians - about 85 kt aloft

[Evil Jeremy]

Well the Dropsonde and associated VDM recorded 945mb surface with wind 19 knots from ENE - not an estimate. How official do we need?

Rule of thumb is that you deduct an additional MB of pressure per every 10kts of wind. So that would support the raw 943mb that recon found.

[tolakram]

latest

[HurrMark]

Per the current VIS photo, Sandy is a little to the right of the forecast track - seems landfall might be earlier than forecast yesterday...

Frank

That is what I am thinking...perhaps 6-8 PM.

[Hogweed]

Per the current VIS photo, Sandy is a little to the right of the forecast track - seems landfall might be earlier than forecast yesterday...

Frank

Within 5-10 miles of centre of cone (Google earth NHC track) by my reckoning from VDM. Cone is 140 miles at this point. That seems pretty much ontrack to me.

[wxsouth]

Anyone know what buoy Joe. B is talking about here on twitter?

The site http://crownweather.com has a ne data buoy site with a buoy south of Block I that has had wind gusts to 113kts.Current gust : 94

Try here and look at the buoy south of "Rhode" in "Rhode Island" due east of the mid NJ coast and due south of eastern Long Island.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=46

This buoy is also on the NDBC page: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=demo2&ts=1346649000.

However, I find the values HIGHLY suspect and do not find them realistic at all.

[CrazyC83]

I think northern New England and the North Country is in for a HUGE surprise as well!!! And that includes me eventually...unlike NYC and Long Island, they are NOT prepared well

[GoneBabyGone]

Can you get images throughout the coming days of this area so we have something to watch in order to get perspective on the surge?

That's the plan. I'll take a couple photos per day.

[RVAHudson]

This buoy is also on the NDBC page: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=demo2&ts=1346649000.

However, I find the values HIGHLY suspect and do not find them realistic at all.

Test platform for some sort of new wave-powered buoy by "Liquid Robotics": http://liquidr.com/index.html

Something tells me it's getting all the waves it needs

[Hogweed]

Ah I see NHC has adjusted track slightly to left. Yes we are now a bit to the right of that but pretty much down the centre of the previous track. Wobble watching