Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
422 PM AST FRI OCT 26 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED TO
SANDY WILL DOMINATE INTO MID NEXT WEEK. LARGE NORTHWEST SWELLS
WILL IMPACT THE ATLC COASTLINE AND MONA PASSAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FEEDER BAND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY HAS
WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE LAST NIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE
EXTENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SO AM NOT EXPECTING
A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHTS.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND BETTER
HEATING SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON SAT AND THEN OVR NORTHEAST PR SUN
AND NEXT WEEK. IT WILL TURN NOTICEABLY HOTTER ESPECIALLY ON SUN AS
LOW TO MID LEVEL TEMPS WARM. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TIST...TJPS AND TJSJ THROUGH LATE TONIGHT IN PASSING SHWRS. SHRA AND
ISOLD TSRA EMBEDDED IN A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL AFFECT THE
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ELSEWHERE


&&

.MARINE...SCA WILL BE CANCELLED SHORTLY AS SOUTHWEST SWELLS HAVE
SUBSIDED AND LARGER NORTHWEST SWELL EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY HAVE
BEEN PUSHED BACK OR DELAYED TO MON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 90 80 90 / 20 50 0 20
STT 82 88 82 86 / 40 40 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1009 PM AST FRI OCT 26 2012

.UPDATE...PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A LINE OF CONVECTION... ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FEEDER BANDS OF SANDY...CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST TOWARDS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID RISES IN STREAMS...CREEKS AND
RIVERS AS WELL AS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF
STEEP TERRAIN.

[HurricaneBill]

Latest death toll is 43.

Haiti: 29
Cuba: 11
Jamaica: 1
Bahamas: 1
Puerto Rico: 1

http://www.willitsnews.com/ci_21867867/sandy-gone-caribbean-mourns-43-dead-cleans-up

[cycloneye]

Latest death toll is 43.

Haiti: 29
Cuba: 11
Jamaica: 1
Bahamas: 1
Puerto Rico: 1

http://www.willitsnews.com/ci_21867867/sandy-gone-caribbean-mourns-43-dead-cleans-up

Very sad news. My condolenses to the families of the victims.

[Gustywind]

Back to green, the sea is calm
franceantilles.fr 26.10.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 191696.php


A West swell has been generated by the presence these days of Hurricane Sandy on the sea of the Caribbean. This swell, observed since yesterday on the side of our archipelago, had ultimately little impact. The trend is to depreciation.

A West swell has been generated by the presence these days of Hurricane Sandy on the sea of the Caribbean. This swell, observed since yesterday on the side of our archipelago, held ultimately has little impact of the weakness of the hollow (less than 1 m), and wind. Despite persistent West swell trains during the weekend on the area, the trend is to depreciation and only a light chop and small waves are observed on the Caribbean coast.
A second train of swells North to Northwest, far more energy and generated him also remotely by Sandy, is expected to reach the archipelago early next week (Monday), and lead to greater degradation of the State of the sea, including Caribbean side.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. It looks like Sandys tail will no longer be a big factor in the local weather.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST SAT OCT 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN DURING THE PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES INTO
THE ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT RETURNS BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALTHOUGH TROUGHING DOMINATES
THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY MOVES NORTH AND INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MONDAY AND FORM NORTH OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS BY MID WEEK. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CHANGE THE SOURCE OF
AIR FOR THE LOCAL AREA AND BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS LINGER IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS...OTHERWISE MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS REMAINED OVER THE AREA. IN GENERAL...DEWPOINTS
HAVE REMAINED IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE AREA AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS AT OR ABOVE TWO INCHES AT ALL THREE
SOUNDERS IN THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THE 27/00Z SOUNDING WAS RATHER
STABLE FOR THE AREA NORMAL WITH ITS LIFTED INDEX COMING IN AT
MINUS 1.2 DEGREES...LIKELY DUE TO THE VIGOROUS CONVECTION IN THE
HOURS JUST BEFORE THE SOUNDING WAS LAUNCHED...THE LOWEST TWO
THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR MASS WERE ALSO RATHER WARM...WITH THE
HIGHEST PART OF THE LAYER COMING IN AT 24 DEG C. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RAPID WARMING TODAY. MOS AGAIN TRIED TO GIVE US A MAXIMUM
BELOW 90 DEGREES...BUT NEITHER SHOWERS NOR CLOUD COVER WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO HOLD THE HIGHS ON THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO OUT
OF THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES PUSHING INTO THE 100-110 DEGREE
MARK. THIS SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT TO RE-IGNITE CONVECTION
ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...BEGINNING LATE IN THE MORNING AND IN THE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT WITH SATURATED GROUND AND RIVERS BARELY
DOWN FROM THE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS WOULD EXPECT A FEW LOCATIONS
TO SEE MINOR FLOODING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO
DECLINE FOR THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS AND SUNDAY DOES APPEAR TO BE
DRIER.

SANDY`S INFLUENCE IS WANING AND THE FACT THAT IT HAS DETERIORATED
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT HELPED...NEVERTHELESS MODELS SHOW
ITS MAIN CONNECTION TO THE TROPICS WILL BE PULLING AIR OVER PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND THE
GFS ALSO SHOW THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY ARE
LIKELY TO BE STRONGER AND MORE NUMEROUS THAN SUNDAY. THE GFS SHOWS
MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY...AND FLOW BEGINS TO PULL THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR OUT
OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK THAT SHOULD
GIVE RELIEF TO BOTH THE PERSISTENT SHOWERS...THE HUMIDITY AND THE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED DURING THE LAST
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL LOCAL TERMINALS
THROUGH MID MORNING. AFTER 27/16Z SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST AND GENERATE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE TJSJ TERMINAL. REST OF THE TERMINALS COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE
AN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AFTER
27/16Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTH AT UP TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS CONTINUE BELOW 7 FEET AND WINDS BELOW 22
KNOTS...ALTHOUGH JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
19 TO 21 KNOTS HAVE GENERATED SEAS AROUND 6 FEET. MODELS APPEAR TO
HAVE A HIGH BIAS...WITH THE NAM AND THE GFS SHOWING WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE MONA PASSAGE. LATEST SATELLITE
SCANS SHOW THIS IS LIKELY NOT THE CASE. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL
CYCLONE SANDY ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING AND PEAK
MONDAY. HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT THAT TIME AND LAST
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 90 76 / 50 0 20 10
STT 87 79 88 80 / 40 10 10 30

[cycloneye]

Here are photos of the aftermath in the Dominican Republic,Cuba and Haiti. I hope that our friend in Jamaica Caribwxgirl is fine and when the power and internet come back,she reports about what occured in that island.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST SAT OCT 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
INTO MON THEN BREAK DOWN TEMPORARILY ON TUE AS POLAR TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS ERN NOAM. RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS BEEN VERY MINIMAL TODAY DUE TO STRONG
SRLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LACK OF SFC CONVERGENCE. HOTTER TOMORROW
WITH WARMER 1000-850 MB THICKENESSES AND STRONGER CAP. ON
MON...THICKNESSES DROP AS A RIDGE START TO BREAK DOWN IN RESPONSE
TO DIGGING TROF ACROSS ERN US. A SHORTWAVE-TROUGH EMBEDDED IN
SWRLY FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON AND LIKELY RESULT IN A
MORE ACTIVE DAY. DRIER AIR WILL START WORKING INTO THE AREA TUE
WITH LESS CVRG. MUCH DRIER AND STABLE FOR MID WEEK AS ERN US TROF
DEAMPLIFIES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN AGAIN.
WEATHER MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE MORE REMINISCENT OF MID TO
LATE NOVEMBER.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT IN TJSJ WHERE MVFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 27/21Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 3 TO 6 FEET BUT EXPECTED TO BUILD
RAPIDLY LATE SUN NIGHT IN NORTHWEST SWELLS. SCA AND HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED FOR MUCH ON NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 94 76 87 / 0 20 0 50
STT 79 86 80 86 / 10 10 20 20

[Macrocane]

Wow, very painful pictures up there cycloneye.

Here in Central America we're going to have good weather in the next few days as the 2nd cold surge of the season is about to begin. An excerpt from the latest Pacific TWD talks about Tehuantepec winds but we're expecting them in Central America as well:

CLIMATOLOGICALLY OCTOBER MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE TEHUANTEPEC
WIND EVENTS. PRESENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO ACCOMPANIED BY A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. THIS DENSER
AIR HAS ALREADY SPILLED THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC AND IS FORECAST TO REACH 25-30 KT BY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20-25 KT SUN NIGHT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
BUILDS SEAS 8-11 FT IN THE GULF.

[cycloneye]

More sad news commng from Haiti as the death toll continues to rise.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/2 ... _ref=world

PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti — The Caribbean death toll from Hurricane Sandy rose again sharply on Saturday, even as the storm swirled away toward the U.S. East Coast. Officials said the hurricane system has cost at least 58 lives in addition to destroying or badly damaging thousands of homes.

While Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas took direct hits from the storm, the majority of deaths and most extensive damage was in impoverished Haiti, where it has rained almost non-stop since Tuesday.

The official death toll in Haiti stood at 44 Saturday, but authorities said that could still rise. The country's ramshackle housing and denuded hillsides are especially vulnerable to flooding when rains come.

"This is a disaster of major proportions," Prime Minister Laurent Lamothe told The Associated Press. "The whole south is under water."

He said the death toll jumped on Saturday because it was the first day that authorities were able to go out and assess the damage, which he estimated was in the hundreds of millions of dollars, the bulk of it in lost crops.

Nineteen people are reported injured and another 12 are missing, according to Haiti's Civil Protection Office.

[Macrocane]

I've just updated the Central American Cold Surges Thread with the observations from the first event of the season: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2285766#p2285766

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Watch out beachgoers and mariners for high seas.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
620 AM AST SUN OCT 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...PUERTO RICO REMAINS UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY NOVEMBER.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BUT BEGINS BUILDING NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MID-WEEK. THIS HIGH THEN SHIFTS BACK INTO THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HURRICANE SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN IT CUTS INLAND ACROSS NEW JERSEY. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONNECTS TO WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST NORTH
OF OUR LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE REFORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEK GENERATING EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS AND USHER IN A COOLER AIR MASS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
THESE TRADE WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS THAT BEGAN SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO EARLIER
LAST NIGHT MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS
MORNING AS PART OF THE MOISTURE MOVING OUT OF COLOMBIA AND THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN IN RESPONSE TO THE CIRCULATION AROUND
HURRICANE SANDY. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWED A BAND OF BETTER
MOISTURE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT THAT SHOULD AFFECT THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY. CONVECTION OVER PUERTO RICO HAD BEEN STIFLED BY A CAP
IN THE INVERSION AROUND 5 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET BUT MODELS SHOW THAT
DISAPPEARING THIS AFTERNOON. NEVERTHELESS WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW...CONDITIONS IN THE LOCAL AREA SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE
THEY WERE SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND WESTERN...AND DOWN-SLOPE FLOW OVER
THE NORTH COAST THAT SENT TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT HIGH CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNRISE AND RAPID HEATING WILL COMMENCE. ALTHOUGH SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE CORDILLERA...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE NORTH WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER.
ON MONDAY THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER PEAKING AND RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS BROUGHT IN BY A SHIFT OF
WIND FLOW TO THE EAST THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE
RETURNS AFTER SATURDAY...BUT 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES REMAIN BELOW
1413 METERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER PEAKING AT AROUND 1423
METERS TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER TJPS THROUGH AT LEAST 28/16Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH 26/18Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER TJPS
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTHWEST AT 10
TO 15KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS IN THE LOCAL NEARSHORE WATERS HAVE CONTINUED TO
SUBSIDE AS SWELL FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST DIMINISH WITH THE
PASSAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC. SEAS CONTINUED BETWEEN 5.5 AND 6.5 FEET AT BUOY
41043 AS SWELL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND SWELL FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
SANDY HAVE NOT YET ARRIVED. SEAS AT BUOY 41046 IN THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS HAVE CLIMBED RAPIDLY TO 20 FEET AND PART OF THAT SWELL
WILL ARRIVE HERE LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL SPREAD SEAS OF 7 TO 10
FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND CAUSE BREAKING WAVES OF 10 TO 14
FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN MOST
WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY THAT GOES INTO EFFECT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS BETWEEN THE MODEL RUNS AND TIMING OF THE SEAS
VARIED WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THAT SEAS OF 7 FEET WOULD NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. NEVERTHELESS WITH SWELL FROM BOTH
NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST AND THE BUOYS BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND
TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY ALREADY ABOVE 20 FEET HAVE DECIDED TO BEGIN
THE FIRST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE ATLANTIC AT NOON AND THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY TONIGHT AT MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 93 80 92 78 / 0 0 40 20
STT 87 82 86 80 / 20 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST SUN OCT 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WILL CONTINUE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS PUERTO RICO MAY FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY. LARGE NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WIND PATTERN ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT...
THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPERIENCED A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IN
RESPONSE TO THE CIRCULATION OF SANDY. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS ADVECTING
A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE LOCAL REGION...RESPONSIBLE OF
HOT TEMPS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS SANDY
CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BACK FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK. DRIER AND STABLE AIR
MASS WILL ACCOMPANY THE EASTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL BE THE LARGE
NORTHWEST SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE SANDY THAT WILL IMPACT
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES STARTING LATE TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT FOR THE WEST THROUGH NORTH FACING COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. NOTE...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
WAS UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON TO ADD CABO ROJO (PRZ011).

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR TJPS
WHERE BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 28/21Z. GENERAL LOW
LEVEL WNDS CONT FM SW AT 15-25 KTS BLO FL250.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELLS ASSOCIATED HURRICANE
SANDY WILL INVADE THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES TONIGHT.
HAZARDOUS SURF WILL PERSIST ALONG NORTH AND WEST-FACING SHORES OF
PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN UNTIL AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

LATEST BUOY DATA FROM THE DISTANT EAST BAHAMAS BUOY 41046 MEASURED
SWELL HEIGHTS BETWEEN 15 TO 17 FEET AND 12 TO 15 SECONDS. CALCULATING
THE SWELL DECAY...THE FIRST GROUP OF SWELLS WILL ARRIVE TO PORTIONS
OF OUR LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REACHED 94 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE OLD
RECORD OF 92 SET IN 1992.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 91 78 89 / 0 40 20 20
STT 82 86 80 88 / 30 30 20 20

[Caribwxgirl]

Hi all just a few pictures of Sandy's aftermath. I had no effects really except some water blowing under my balcony door and squeezing past my windows. One of mycoworkers lives in Portland one of the hardest hit areas and she shared the following photos with me. The house with the roof gone is hers.


http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/6264/imageeir.jpg

http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/7753/imageggmu.jpg

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/839/imagezkoe.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/836/imageaun.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/525/imagehgc.jpg/

[cycloneye]

Hi all just a few pictures of Sandy's aftermath. I had no effects really except some water blowing under my balcony door and squeezing past my windows. One of mycoworkers lives in Portland one of the hardest hit areas and she shared the following photos with me. The house with the roof gone is hers.


http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/6264/imageeir.jpg

http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/7753/imageggmu.jpg

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/839/imagezkoe.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/836/imageaun.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/525/imagehgc.jpg/

First, I am glad that you fared well in this landfall. Impressive photos of the damage. I understand that you have family in some states that will be affected by Sandy.I hope that nothing bad occurs with them and are safe.

[Caribwxgirl]

Hi all just a few pictures of Sandy's aftermath. I had no effects really except some water blowing under my balcony door and squeezing past my windows. One of mycoworkers lives in Portland one of the hardest hit areas and she shared the following photos with me. The house with the roof gone is hers.


http://img39.imageshack.us/img39/6264/imageeir.jpg

http://img801.imageshack.us/img801/7753/imageggmu.jpg

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/839/imagezkoe.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/836/imageaun.jpg/

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/525/imagehgc.jpg/

First, I am glad that you fared well in this landfall. Impressive photos of the damage. I understand that you have family in some states that will be affected by Sandy.I hope that nothing bad occurs with them and are safe.

Thanks I hope all will be well with them too.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
933 PM AST SUN OCT 28 2012

.UPDATE...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER A FEW LAND LOCATIONS...BUT MUCH OF THE TIME IT WILL
REMAIN DRY. ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE EXPECTED. INHERITED SHORT TERM GRIDS AND
ZFP HAD A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...
BUT SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO BOTH TO ALTER THE WEATHER...SKY
COVER...POPS AND WINDS IN SEVERAL ZONES...AND TO UPDATE THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR AN EARLIER START TIME. LOCAL VISUAL
MARINE AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATED THAT THE LONG PERIOD NORTHWEST
SWELLS WERE ARRIVING AND BUILDING QUICKLY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED. FOR THIS REASON...SENT AN
EARLY UPDATE TO CFW AND ZFP TO BEGIN ADVISORY AT 8 PM RATHER THAN
MIDNIGHT. FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...MADE A COUPLE OF SEMANTIC
ALTERATIONS TO THE PREVIOUS CWF...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...AND SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ELSEWHERE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LOCAL MARINE PRODUCTS FOR FORECAST
DETAILS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. No beach today nor going out in boats as seas are rough.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST MON OCT 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH SURFACE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING ARE THE LARGE...LONG
PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE SANDY WHICH WILL
CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THE REST OF THIS MORNING...PEAKING THIS
AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT...AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS A RESULT...A HIGH SURF WARNING AND A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED. PLEASE...REFER TO ZONE FORECAST AND CFWSJU
PRODUCTS FOR LATEST INFORMATION.

MEANWHILE...WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A RELIEF IN THIS HOT PATTERN.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATE BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EVERY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. AT
THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
REGION NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THE
LOCAL TAF SITES UNTIL AT LEAST 29/17Z. A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS TIST FROM BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS. AFT 29/17Z
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 79 91 79 / 40 20 30 0
STT 87 81 89 81 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Folks,Puerto Rico has seen indirect effects from Sandy,first the tail that brought heavy rains on Friday that caused some flooding and now big waves arriving to the north coast causing coastal flooding and that shows how large is Sandy that can send big swells well away from the center.

Translated to English.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 73741.html

Although it is on the East coast of United States, the giant Hurricane Sandy is leaving feeling in Puerto Rico, with a strong storm which has already caused flooding and the closure of roads in the area north and East of the island, and the cancellation of classes in the school San Carlos Borromeo, in Aguadilla.

Police said that it was necessary to cancel classes at the College since the strong waves broke the protective fence of cement and broke the gate of the campus. In Aguadilla, also was closed to the public park Columbus.

Similarly, the specifcally warned that in the sector empty Talega in Loiza, PR-187 road is closed in both directions since the waves broke up the track, and water and sand clogged the step. There, police officers, divert transit by other routes, since the track is impassable from the bridge until the beginning of the road in pine nuts.

Meanwhile, the executive director of the State Agency for the management of emergency and disaster management (Aemead), Heriberto Saurí, reported that in Aguada, the Navy Street and the Park are closed to the public by the strong waves, while in Barceloneta is closed highway PR-684, at 16.5 km.

"Staff of the City Office of emergency management (OMME) cleaned the road (in Barceloneta) on two occasions in the course of the night, however, the tide continues coming out which staff of the Office is monitoring the area," said the official in writing.

Sauri also explained that his agency works with land landslides that occurred in the past few days by the remnants of the Sandy Hurricane rains. He pointed out that, in Cayey, these landslides are in barrio Beatriz Mamey, road PR-7736; on the road PR-1, at heights of Montellano, and road PR-763, kilometer 2, barrio Guavate, sector mourning.

He added that staff of the Department of transportation and public works (DTOP) next to the municipal offices of emergency management met landslides in the neighborhood Turabo sector aqueduct, km 2 in Caguas, and highway PR-1, kilometer 48, barrio Beatriz, sector Las Piñas city, also in Caguas.

[Gustywind]

Folks,Puerto Rico has seen indirect effects from Sandy,first the tail that brought heavy rains on Friday that caused some flooding and now big waves arriving to the north coast causing coastal flooding and that shows how large is Sandy that can send big swells well away from the center.

Translated to English.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 73741.html

Although it is on the East coast of United States, the giant Hurricane Sandy is leaving feeling in Puerto Rico, with a strong storm which has already caused flooding and the closure of roads in the area north and East of the island, and the cancellation of classes in the school San Carlos Borromeo, in Aguadilla.

Police said that it was necessary to cancel classes at the College since the strong waves broke the protective fence of cement and broke the gate of the campus. In Aguadilla, also was closed to the public park Columbus.

Similarly, the specifcally warned that in the sector empty Talega in Loiza, PR-187 road is closed in both directions since the waves broke up the track, and water and sand clogged the step. There, police officers, divert transit by other routes, since the track is impassable from the bridge until the beginning of the road in pine nuts.

Meanwhile, the executive director of the State Agency for the management of emergency and disaster management (Aemead), Heriberto Saurí, reported that in Aguada, the Navy Street and the Park are closed to the public by the strong waves, while in Barceloneta is closed highway PR-684, at 16.5 km.

"Staff of the City Office of emergency management (OMME) cleaned the road (in Barceloneta) on two occasions in the course of the night, however, the tide continues coming out which staff of the Office is monitoring the area," said the official in writing.

Sauri also explained that his agency works with land landslides that occurred in the past few days by the remnants of the Sandy Hurricane rains. He pointed out that, in Cayey, these landslides are in barrio Beatriz Mamey, road PR-7736; on the road PR-1, at heights of Montellano, and road PR-763, kilometer 2, barrio Guavate, sector mourning.

He added that staff of the Department of transportation and public works (DTOP) next to the municipal offices of emergency management met landslides in the neighborhood Turabo sector aqueduct, km 2 in Caguas, and highway PR-1, kilometer 48, barrio Beatriz, sector Las Piñas city, also in Caguas.

That's nasty Cycloneye ! Let's hope that no more occurs en la isla del encanto.