ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Frank2]

Per the NWS radar, Sandy is making a beeline for the coast - my guess (just a guess) that it might cross before sunset...

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

if it stays on it's current heading it might even pass south of PHL - some good news for NYC, perhaps...

Frank

[Macrocane]

International Space Station has just passed over Sandy:

[Portastorm]

Can someone please look at this map: http://www.nassaucountyny.gov/agencies/ ... _zones.pdf

and cross reference this address: 600 Chauncey Lane, Lawrence, NY 11559

My friend is there and I'm extremely worried, I don't really know how to interpret these maps, but it looks bad. I don't know how high above sea level he is, but I just need someone with more experience to verify that he's in severe danger so I can convince him to evacuate. Please help

He's in the red zone (Category 1). Do whatever you can to get him out of there.

[HurrMark]

Per the NWS radar, Sandy is making a beeline for the coast - my guess (just a guess) that it might cross before sunset...

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

if it stays on it's current heading it might even pass south of PHL - some good news for NYC, perhaps...

Frank

Why is this good news? Radar is showing it move directly towards ACY. The hurricane force winds are expected to be over 100 miles from the center. New York would still be in that zone.

[artist]

Can someone please look at this map: http://www.nassaucountyny.gov/agencies/ ... _zones.pdf

and cross reference this address: 600 Chauncey Lane, Lawrence, NY 11559

My friend is there and I'm extremely worried, I don't really know how to interpret these maps, but it looks bad. I don't know how high above sea level he is, but I just need someone with more experience to verify that he's in severe danger so I can convince him to evacuate. Please help

try this
http://gis.nyc.gov/oem/he/index.htm

[IntheEye]

Per the NWS radar, Sandy is making a beeline for the coast - my guess (just a guess) that it might cross before sunset...

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

if it stays on it's current heading it might even pass south of PHL - some good news for NYC, perhaps...

Frank

Looks to be making a beeline for Atlantic City. I don't know what you're thinking but at this point the only good news is if Sandy makes landfall east of NYC, as OzonePete alluded to. Storm surge will be historic and hurricane force winds will still encompass NYC

[Terry]

I questioned them on their accuracy, using your words. No response from them yet. (Facebook page)

That's false info. They don't even have their info right. 99mph is not a strong Cat 2, and 110mph is not Cat 3. And there weren't any reports of 99mph at the surface. And there is no recon in the system right now. And there were no rapid pressure drops.

[KWT]

Per the NWS radar, Sandy is making a beeline for the coast - my guess (just a guess) that it might cross before sunset...

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

if it stays on it's current heading it might even pass south of PHL - some good news for NYC, perhaps...

Frank

Looks like its moving WNW, I'm looking at the rapidscan loop and I'm seeing it tightening up, this is the best I've seen it look for a while...I hope we aren't seeing frictional tightening compensating for the cooling SST's along with the additional factors.

Going to be interesting to see what recon shows, I wouldn't be shocked if we are close to category-2 right now...

[SunnyThoughts]

Listening to this live stream from NY tv station http://newyork.cbslocal.com/live-video-two/ met there is saying it looks as though the center may come inland around Atlantic City in about 6 hours or so...considering the faster movement.

[bahamaswx]

Per the NWS radar, Sandy is making a beeline for the coast - my guess (just a guess) that it might cross before sunset...

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

if it stays on it's current heading it might even pass south of PHL - some good news for NYC, perhaps...

Frank

Why is this good news? Radar is showing it move directly towards ACY. The hurricane force winds are expected to be over 100 miles from the center. New York would still be in that zone.

Location won't matter much, but faster is better.

[Stephanie]

Listening to this live stream from NY tv station http://newyork.cbslocal.com/live-video-two/ met there is saying it looks as though the center may come inland around Atlantic City in about 6 hours or so...considering the faster movement.

The "eye" of Sandy doesn't look too far away from Atlantic City. However, that's also about the time of the next high tide.

I'm getting more wind now and a heavy rain band is on it's way.

[HurrMark]

Per the NWS radar, Sandy is making a beeline for the coast - my guess (just a guess) that it might cross before sunset...

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes

if it stays on it's current heading it might even pass south of PHL - some good news for NYC, perhaps...

Frank

Why is this good news? Radar is showing it move directly towards ACY. The hurricane force winds are expected to be over 100 miles from the center. New York would still be in that zone.

Location won't matter much, but faster is better.

Faster will not be better other than the fact that the major impacts will take place during one tidal cycle rather than two. If anything, it will make things worse since the translational motion of the storm will be greater than if it was moving slower, and that would increase the winds north of the center (ala Long Island Express).

I see landfall around 5-6 PM now...

[Ken711]

Listening to this live stream from NY tv station http://newyork.cbslocal.com/live-video-two/ met there is saying it looks as though the center may come inland around Atlantic City in about 6 hours or so...considering the faster movement.

The "eye" of Sandy doesn't look too far away from Atlantic City. However, that's also about the time of the next high tide.

I'm getting more wind now and a heavy rain band is on it's way.

I think the center will make landfall in extreme Southern NJ/Delaware, and will be South of AC.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Portastorm]

IMPORTANT


Those of you making "forecasts" about landfall time and location, please use the disclaimer. If you don't, we don't have time to be adding the disclaimer to every post ... we'll just delete your post.

Thank you!

[Weatherguy173]

for those in nj, don't trust the jcpl power outage maps. i know many people in my town out of power and those people are not listed as people out on the outage map. just assume more people are out then they say.

[ROCK]

RECON heading to the center now....will be there shortly...

[Ken711]

What quadrant will the strongest winds be anticipated after landfall?

[Terry]

Don't forget the new Google surge-evacuation map.

[curtadams]

Can someone please look at this map: http://www.nassaucountyny.gov/agencies/ ... _zones.pdf

and cross reference this address: 600 Chauncey Lane, Lawrence, NY 11559

My friend is there and I'm extremely worried, I don't really know how to interpret these maps, but it looks bad. I don't know how high above sea level he is, but I just need someone with more experience to verify that he's in severe danger so I can convince him to evacuate. Please help

Your friend is about three miles into the mandatory evacuation zone (south of Sunrise Highway). http://www.nassaucountyny.gov/agencies/ ... 2012b.html

To me, what looks particularly bad is that the high ground nearest your friend is in the Cat 3 category, but is completely surrounded by Cat 2 or even Cat 1 ground (hard to tell from the map). So, if the storm is bad, and they are forced out and head to higher ground, they might be trapped in an area which goes underwater with no way out except through deep fairly cold water in the middle of a very bad storm.

Remind them that although of course we don't *know* their home will be flooded, even a small risk of death is an excellent reason to leave. OTOH, there's almost no gain from staying. They are not going to be able to do much of anything to protect their house from floodwater by being there.

If it helps, and they have a car, remind them even 1 foot of flooding will probably ruin their car, because the water will be salt.

[jhpigott]

Brigantine Beach sea wall has collapsed. The police chief is telling all resident to leave NOW. 70% of the 9500 residents stayed to ride out the storm.