ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[Raebie]

Brigantine Beach sea wall has collapsed. The police chief is telling all resident to leave NOW. 70% of the 9500 residents stayed to ride out the storm.

http://twitter.com/BlogMadBetty/status/ ... 72/photo/1

http://brigantinenow.com/brigantine-eva ... pm-oct-27/

[Portastorm]

Great job everyone on finding sources. Please remember when you are posting news of some sort, make sure you mention the source of your news. There are many people here and lurking who are desperately seeking information. Thanks.

[dizzyfish]

https://twitter.com/kaseyanne11893/status/262969553347305472/photo/1/large - Brigantine, NJ

Oh Stephanie - that's just awful.

[Ken711]

What quadrant will the strongest winds be anticipated after making landfall?

[Frank2]

I'm measuring a forward speed of 30-35 mph now, and the center is only 80 miles from the coast. At this speed, the center will be inland within 3 hrs, or near 4:30pm EDT, which is closer to low tide than high tide.

Yes, that's what I was referring to (not very clearly) earlier - low tide and much further south of NYC that earlier feared, so better at low tide than high...

Frank

[EyELeSs1]

I'm measuring a forward speed of 30-35 mph now, and the center is only 80 miles from the coast. At this speed, the center will be inland within 3 hrs, or near 4:30pm EDT, which is closer to low tide than high tide.

How much of a difference do you think this will make in terms of expected storm surge?

[MBryant]

Can someone please look at this map: http://www.nassaucountyny.gov/agencies/ ... _zones.pdf

and cross reference this address: 600 Chauncey Lane, Lawrence, NY 11559

My friend is there and I'm extremely worried, I don't really know how to interpret these maps, but it looks bad. I don't know how high above sea level he is, but I just need someone with more experience to verify that he's in severe danger so I can convince him to evacuate. Please help

He's in the red zone (Category 1). Do whatever you can to get him out of there.

Also, remind him of the mandatory evacuation order for his area: http://www.nassaucountyny.gov/agencies/CountyExecutive/NewsRelease/2012/10-28-2012b.html He is way south of the line on Sunrise Highway. He needs to get out while the roads are still open. Ask him for his SS number and names of family members. When he asks why, tell him you want to be able to ID him and inform next of kin.

I hate to bring this up, but he may not have the option to evacuate at this point. He may just need to identify a way to survive in place. Know where the Cat 3 property is. Make sure that he has an ax if he goes into an attic, etc.

[MiamiensisWx]

Barring a change in the current speed (which is unlikely as the mid-tropospheric jet is strengthening), I think Sandy will very likely still be a warm-core hurricane at landfall in S New Jersey, exactly as several models have been consistently forecasting. NHC may well decide to institute Hurricane Warnings based upon what the incoming reconnaissance plane finds.

The only good news is that this system will likely strike closer to low tide as wxman57 mentioned.

This is NOT an official forecast!!!

[Stephanie]

I'm measuring a forward speed of 30-35 mph now, and the center is only 80 miles from the coast. At this speed, the center will be inland within 3 hrs, or near 4:30pm EDT, which is closer to low tide than high tide.

Possibly a bit of a break for us, though the water won't be able to go anywhere because the high tide will be building in right afterwards.

[HurrMark]

I'm measuring a forward speed of 30-35 mph now, and the center is only 80 miles from the coast. At this speed, the center will be inland within 3 hrs, or near 4:30pm EDT, which is closer to low tide than high tide.

Yes, that's what I was referring to (not very clearly) earlier - low tide and much further south of NYC that earlier feared, so better at low tide than high...

Frank

But hurricane force gusts are going to continue for hours after landfall...so I would think this would actually be worse for NYC, since there would be more time for the strong surge due to wind to build up. Winds will still be strong out of the SE pushing into NY Harbor 6 hours from now.

[wxman57]

I'm measuring a forward speed of 30-35 mph now, and the center is only 80 miles from the coast. At this speed, the center will be inland within 3 hrs, or near 4:30pm EDT, which is closer to low tide than high tide.

How much of a difference do you think this will make in terms of expected storm surge?

The early landfall could mitigate the surge by a couple of feet, but the strong onshore flow will still be there at high tide this evening.

[Terry]

I realize that human life is more important, but I was sad to learn the the Atlantic City boardwalk and beaches are home to many homeless cats... It's now under water.

[RL3AO]

At this speed, the center will be inland within 3 hrs, or near 4:30pm EDT, which is closer to low tide than high tide.

So that means NHC can call it post-tropical at 4:00pm to verify their non-hurricane warning?

[MiamiensisWx]

I'm measuring a forward speed of 30-35 mph now, and the center is only 80 miles from the coast. At this speed, the center will be inland within 3 hrs, or near 4:30pm EDT, which is closer to low tide than high tide.

How much of a difference do you think this will make in terms of expected storm surge?

The early landfall could mitigate the surge by a couple of feet, but the strong onshore flow will still be there at high tide this evening.

So would the final surge (in the evening) be just as high as originally forecast?

[Blown Away]

http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/487368_10152184535230401_182652629_n.jpg

Wow, the person taking that picture has to be freaking out!!! I've been thnking of a way to seal a CBS home around impact doors to keep water out. I know it would be difficult but possible b/c that glass will likely hold up. Amazing picture!!!

Wouldn't it be cool if he got a picture with a fish looking in???

Are there palm trees up in the NE?? Suspicious picture!!

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...SANDY MOVING MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 73.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

[MiamiensisWx]

NHC says pressure is down to 940 mb...models score a coup. It is now officially lower than that of the 1938 hurricane (941 mb at landfall).

[jlauderdal]

http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/487368_10152184535230401_182652629_n.jpg

Wow, the person taking that picture has to be freaking out!!! I've been thnking of a way to seal a CBS home around impact doors to keep water out. I know it would be difficult but possible b/c that glass will likely hold up. Amazing picture!!!

the person taking that picture probably wishes they would have evacuated

[MBryant]

I realize that human life is more important, but I was sad to learn the the Atlantic City boardwalk and beaches are home to many homeless cats... It's now under water.

Fortunately, cats have nine lives.

[Sanibel]

I don't think there's any palm trees in New Jersey (???)