ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[ColdFusion]

Water level at Battery NY only 1 foot below this mornings peak, and rising quickly.

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_m ... =Tide+Data

[HurrMark]

based on the latest satellite, radar, and surface obs, this storm is no longer tropical. the center has been absorbed into the large upper level system.

Does this mean that we won't have an official landfall?

Officially no (and that would be the second time NJ "almost" missed a hurricane landfall in two years). But the effects are going to be the same nonetheless.

[Evil Jeremy]

TWC is saying Sandy is no longer a hurricane, even though the new advisory isn't out yet.....

[SunnyThoughts]

http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/livenow?id=8857235 amazing live coverage

[Mello1]

Sand barrier breech at Long Beach, LI. Water starting to flood parking and local businesses near the breech eventually ahead of high tide.

http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/livenow?id=8857235

[PTrackerLA]

Will the increased forward speed possibly minimize the power outage impacts? I have a hard time seeing how 10 million are going to lose power (an estimate being thrown around yesterday) at this point. I think the surge will be the main story.

[r22weiss]

based on the latest satellite, radar, and surface obs, this storm is no longer tropical. the center has been absorbed into the large upper level system.

Does this mean that we won't have an official landfall?

Officially no (and that would be the second time NJ "almost" missed a hurricane landfall in two years). But the effects are going to be the same nonetheless.

an official landfalling hurricane, no. but a very strong low pressure system which is still going to cause damage to property and life.

[WeatherGuesser]

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.8N 74.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ESE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

[Evil Jeremy]

Sandy still a hurricane. All TS warnings remaining are gone. TWC fail lol.

[HurrMark]

I guess it is still a hurricane...

[Evil Jeremy]

based on the latest satellite, radar, and surface obs, this storm is no longer tropical. the center has been absorbed into the large upper level system.

Does this mean that we won't have an official landfall?

Officially no (and that would be the second time NJ "almost" missed a hurricane landfall in two years). But the effects are going to be the same nonetheless.

According to the NHC, this is still tropical, so we might get that official tropical landfall.

[Extratropical94]

Wait, so there's no intermediate advisory on a landfalling hurricane, only TC updates?!
And why is the latest discussion saying that the pressure has fallen to 943 even though the last updates had it at 940?

Confusing times ahead, I fear.

[tolakram]

Sandy still a hurricane. All TS warnings remaining are gone. TWC fail lol.

Right now the old text is being posted under a new 5pm header. For the discussion at least.

[WeatherGuesser]

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER
WEATHER RADARS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 38.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST.
SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 28 MPH...44 KM/H.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY COAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

[HurrMark]

I don't get this discussion...did someone push the wrong button?


HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

SANDY IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER...WITH BOTH AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
AND VARIOUS MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATING A 20 N MI DIAMETER
EYE HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 94 KT IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT...AND
SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WINDS OF 80-83 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT MORE THAN 90 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE
AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN A
LITTLE...TO ABOUT 943 MB. BASED ON THE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT.

RECONNAISSANCE CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT SANDY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR ABOUT
330/16 KT. THE LATEST RECON FIXES HAVE BEEN FALLING ON THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK...AND SO HAVE THE LATEST 12Z NHC FORECAST MODELS.
THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY PREVIOUS TRACK
OR REASONING ARE REQUIRED. SANDY IS NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE AXIS
OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE
HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON. LANDFALL ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
EVENING...AT WHICH TIME A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED.
AFTER MOVING INLAND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. BY 48 HOURS...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND
LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCN.

SANDY IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING A NARROW RIDGE OF WARM SSTS AROUND
27C...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF STREAM. THIS EXTRA
LOW-LEVEL HEAT INPUT HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT INCREASE
IN CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE. HOWEVER...SANDY WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULFSTREAM WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS...WHICH
WILL BRING A HALT TO ANY SIGNIFICANT INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
OVERALL INTENSITY OR THE SIZE OF THE EXTREMELY LARGE WIND FIELD
THAT IS NOW MORE THAN 1000 N MI IN DIAMETER. AT THE MOMENT...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT WELL-DEFINED WARM AND COLD FRONTS LIE
VERY NEAR THE CENTER OF SANDY...AND THE COMBINATION OF COLDER OCEAN
WATER AND NEARBY FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE REACHES
THE COAST. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE
OVERALL IMPACTS FROM WINDS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE... AND FLOODING RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DANGEROUS
WEATHER SYSTEM. BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER LANDFALL.

[bahamaswx]

With surge at the battery already hitting 6.5', I don't see how it's possibly going to fail to hit that 10.5' marker.

[Sonica]

Sandy still a hurricane. All TS warnings remaining are gone. TWC fail lol.

And a lot of people on here jumping on with that. TWC should be more careful to say facts not predictions.

IMO

[wxman57]

NHC's 4pm CDT position is 20-25 miles offshore moving at 28+ mph and they are stating that it will reach the coast "late this evening" and that it will be extratropical by then. My math says landfall within the hour.

[WeatherGuesser]

The 5PM 5 day track still shows an H well inland.

[tolakram]

Here is the discussion from 11AM. First paragraph identical.

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

SANDY IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER...WITH BOTH AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
AND VARIOUS MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATING A 20 N MI DIAMETER
EYE HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 94 KT IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT...AND
SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WINDS OF 80-83 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT MORE THAN 90 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE
AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN A
LITTLE...TO ABOUT 943 MB. BASED ON THE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT.