ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

I"m starting to dread waking up tomorrow morning and be able to see all this damage in the daylight. Thoughts and prayers for everyone up there....pictures are going to be very sobering in afraid.

[cycloneye]

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

..POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST
OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...[/

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 74.5W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NE OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES

SURFACE...RADAR...AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
DATA INDICATE THAT POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY MADE LANDFALL NEAR
ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY AROUND 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH...130 KM/H.

NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGES HAVE RECENTLY REPORTED STORM
SURGE HEIGHTS OF 11.9 FEET AT KINGS POINT NEW YORK...8.4 FEET
AT THE BATTERY NEW YORK...AND 8.6 FEET AT SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY.

WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 49 MPH WITH A GUST
TO 73 MPH WAS REPORTED AT JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN NEW YORK. A
WIND GUST TO 71 MPH WAS RECENTLY OBSERVED AT FARMINGDALE NEW YORK.

ANOTHER UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AT 900 PM EDT. NHC WILL ISSUE ITS LAST
ADVISORY ON SANDY AT 1100 PM EDT. THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER...HPC...WILL BEGIN ISSUING PUBLIC ADVISORIES AT
500 AM EDT TUESDAY. HPC PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE
SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE NHC PUBLIC ADVISORIES...AND WILL
ALSO BE AVAILABLE VIA THE NHC WEBSITE.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS

[ozonepete]

Hey Hogweed and Dave. My apologies. Shouldn't have said completely wrong - not questioning VDMs, lol. I suspect the original smaller low pressure center that was Sandy's eye has started rotating around the new much large COC and thus there could be a lower pressure there. But the center is so large now and it is no longer tropical so I'm not sure they will find a true eye even if they find a small area of low pressure. they will have to sample from Maryland all the way to Long Island to get the full curvature of the windfield.

[Hogweed]

So far heights (10.3+ ft) at Bridgeport, CT, are below the 13-14 ft originally forecast...I expect that they should increase somewhat, right?

Certainly possible, but because Sandy came in faster and to the south of forecast she probably didn't cram as much water into Long Island Sound so they may get off less badly than expected. We'll see soon.

we are still getting RECON fixes....she hasnt came fully on shore yet....last RECON fix was NE of the prior one....

Yes. Latest VDM has centre offshore between Margate City and Atlantic City

[vbhoutex]

That's a fence...at least 6' high.

Where is that fence?

[Hogweed]

Hey Hogweed and Dave. My apologies. Shouldn't have said completely wrong - not questioning VDMs, lol. I suspect the original smaller low pressure center that was Sandy's eye has started rotating around the new much large COC and thus there could be a lower pressure there. But the center is so large now and it is no longer tropical so I'm not sure they will find a true eye even if they find a small area of low pressure. they will have to sample from Maryland all the way to Long Island to get the full curvature of the windfield.

Thanks for clarifying

[ruindit]

Obviously, the story at the moment is the surge... However, I live just south of Eatons Neck which Fox reported a 94 MPH Gust. Needless to say, not an admirer of weather, it is a major source of stress - more a blue sky, warm calm sorta fella - but I see a lot of knowledge here so rather I am looking for opinions as when this will stop to reduce in wind speed? Thoughts? Opinions?

[ROCK]

real close now.....maybe a few miles offshore...

[KBBOCA]

I'm ready to eat my words, the surge and damage looks extensive. Just the fact the power might take days to come back and is being flooded underground is really bad. The best live feed is at ABC7, some extreme stuff on there:

http://abclocal.go.com/wabc/livenow?id=8857235

The weatherman on that feed really knows his stuff. Clear discussion of warm-core storms, ET transition, etc. - impressive especially for a local weatherman in the Northeast.

Curt, one of my former college roommates and best friends is a reporter for ABCNews, Lucy Yang. I'm emailing back and forth with her tonight, and just passed on your comment! Wishing I could watch ABC's live feed myself, but my internet connection tonight here in W. Africa (where I live and work currently) is very poor, so I can't handle streaming...

[ozonepete]

So far heights (10.3+ ft) at Bridgeport, CT, are below the 13-14 ft originally forecast...I expect that they should increase somewhat, right?

Certainly possible, but because Sandy came in faster and to the south of forecast she probably didn't cram as much water into Long Island Sound so they may get off less badly than expected. We'll see soon.

Except we already beat the all-time record at the Battery which dates to 1821!

[MiamiensisWx]

NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGES HAVE RECENTLY REPORTED STORM
SURGE HEIGHTS OF 11.9 FEET AT KINGS POINT NEW YORK...8.4 FEET
AT THE BATTERY NEW YORK...AND 8.6 FEET AT SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY.

What is this based upon if the official graphs read 13.03 ft of surge (actual tide level + storm tide)?

[FutureEM]

ABC7 said the Subway has flooded, they have a live interview on now with an MTA guy.

[Weatherguy173]

seeing this in daylight will truly be something (but really sad)

[windnrain]

13.15 feet and still rising. High tide is nearing.

[MiamiensisWx]

So far heights (10.3+ ft) at Bridgeport, CT, are below the 13-14 ft originally forecast...I expect that they should increase somewhat, right?

Certainly possible, but because Sandy came in faster and to the south of forecast she probably didn't cram as much water into Long Island Sound so they may get off less badly than expected. We'll see soon.

Except we already beat the all-time record at the Battery which dates to 1821!

So you still believe the surge will reach the 13-14 ft at Bridgeport due to the larger volume of water observed at the Battery?

[Solaris]

some serious flooding in lower Manhattan
http://www.businessinsider.com/battery- ... ng-2012-10

[Hey Its Me]

ABC News says CONED shutting off power for lower Manhattan.

conEdison showing ~156K customers w/o power. Let's see if that jumps here soon!

Sure did... ~223 customers w/o power now.

[millerm277]

FDNY radio announced Brighton Beach, Fulton and Bowling Green power networks are shut down/imminently shutting down.

EDIT: Fire in a subway station from the 3rd rail, they're trying to shut off power to it. Sounds like subways are starting to flood.

[CrazyC83]

Nasty rainband came through here, sustained over 40 and gusting near 60 mph. Power flickered.

[Weatherguy173]

power outages in NJ are skyrocketing at an exponential rate