New England Winter 2012-2013

[cycloneye]

From Boston NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
430 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A NORTHWEST FLOW OF MAINLY DRY BUT COLDER WEATHER WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION WED AND THU WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG NORTHEAST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST. A PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
4 PM UPDATE...

CYCLONE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE A DRY AND COOL
AIRSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL ERODE
SOMEWHAT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...HOWEVER SOME CLOUDINESS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF CT/MA AND SOUTHWEST NH. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AS WELL WITH SUNSET
EXCEPT CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WHERE WIND TRAJECTORY OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER COASTAL WATERS WILL PROMOTE MORE BLYR MIXING.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGS COOLER THAN NORMAL TONIGHT WITH MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE 30S EXCEPT AROUND 40 IN BOSTON ALONG WITH CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...
SOME SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES ALOFT BUT STILL CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG WITH
COLD TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CLOUDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN CT-MA AND
SOUTHWEST NH. MORE SUNSHINE IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES SO TEMPS A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN TODAY. PGRAD CONTINUES SO
EXPECT NW WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.

SUN NIGHT...
PROBABLY THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THIS EARLY FALL SEASON AS COLDER AIR
BEGINS TO MIGRATE SOUTHWARD WITH POLAR VORTEX OVER SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
BUILDING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN SLACKEN WITH
SUNSET BUT LIKELY REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS AS WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DVLPS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WIND
SHIFT MAY ALSO INCREASE CLOUDS /OCEAN EFFECT CLOUDS/ ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MA IN RESPONSE TO CAA ON NE FLOW OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM
OCEAN WATERS. HOWEVER DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* COOLER TEMPS AT BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...POSSIBLE FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES FOR REMAINING AREAS.
* STRONG COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT NEW ENGLAND BY MID-WEEK.
* PATTERN CHANGE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

DETAILS...

MODELS/PATTERN...
12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED MORE TOWARDS THE 04.00
EC...HOWEVER STILL IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. OVERALL MODELS ARE SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION BEGINNING ON MONDAY MOVING INTO
THE MARITIMES BY THURSDAY. STRONG COASTAL STORM WILL MAKE ITS WAY UP
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD ON WED AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...EXITING BY FRIDAY. STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY PUSH ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY
SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
QUIET WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR THIS PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION. QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR THE REGION...HOWEVER IT WILL
SWITCH WINDS TO A MORE NW COMPONENT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CAA TO OCCUR
THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S. MONDAY NIGHT
TEMPS LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST AS A FEW TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE TEENS
ACROSS THE NW....WITH UPPER 20S ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND CAPE.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR
BOSTON...PROVIDENCE...NARRAGANSETT REGION AS WELL AS THE CAPE. THIS
IS DUE TO THE STRONG CAA/CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND DURING THE WED/THUR TIME FRAME. AS STATED EARLIER
SEVERAL MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER AND ARE IN GOOD
ALIGNMENT...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL HAZARDS:
* STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.
* INTERIOR ACCUMULATING WET SNOW...ESP ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN IN WEST.
* FRESH WATER FLOODING ESP ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
* MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EAST COAST.

MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS AND THE INTERIOR POSSIBILITY OF WET SNOW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGIN ITS NORTHWARD
TRACK...A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND HUGS THE EASTERN COASTLINE AS IT
HEADS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY WED. STILL SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE GFS TRACK IS THE CLOSEST TO THE
INTERIOR AS THE EC WAS CLOSER TO THE BENCHMARK. HOWEVER THE 12Z GFS
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE EC FOR ITS RUN AND THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK CLOSER TO THE BENCHMARK...AND A COLDER SOLUTIONS.

ALTHOUGH TIMING DIFFERENCE...HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WILL
OCCUR AREA WIDE BY WED NIGHT/THURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDED AND
BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED OVER SNE...WHICH WILL DELAY THE FORWARD
MOVEMENT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ESP FRESH
WATER AS WELL AS COASTAL FLOODING...AS IT WILL SIT OVER MULTIPLE
TIDES FROM WED INTO THURS. PWAT VALUES ARE INCREASING AS
WELL...SHOWING BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF PRECIP.

BECAUSE OF THE COLDER SOLUTION AND THE INCREASE OF PRECIP...BELIEVE
THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IS INCREASING. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWARD...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE WARM AIR TO MOVE
NORTHWARD...SO AT ONSET WHERE TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AND PRECIP
FALLING...EXPECT SOME WET SNOW. TIMING WILL BE A CONCERN AS IF IT
WILL IMPACT ANY OF THE COMMUNITIES OR NOT...HOWEVER STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY. BELIEVE THAT THE TEMPS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON WED/WED NIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW MOVES THROUGH...ALLOWING FOR
MORE OF A RAIN EVENT. BUT AS THE SYSTEM EXISTS ON THURSDAY COULD SEE
SOME MORE SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAY SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR.

DAMAGING WINDS IS A MAJOR CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG FROM THE DEEPENING LOW
MOVING UP THE COAST AND THE STRONG ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE SITTING
OVER THE MARITIMES. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO SNE...925 MB HAS A
JET OF 70 KTS OF WIND OVER THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE/ISLANDS. THIS IS
SHOWN IN SEVERAL OF THE MODELS AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLES. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW THESE WNDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE ESP ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS. BACKED WINDS OFF A LITTLE BIT IN THE FORECAST BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THESE STRONG WINDS PLAY OUT.

KEPT THE MAIN JIST OF THE PREV FORECAST OF THIS TIME FRAME...HOWEVER
MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS TO A MORE COLDER
SOLUTIONS AS THIS IS WHAT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING. HAVE ALSO
INCREASED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BY A WHOLE INCH AS IT APPEARS THAT
THERE IS SOME BANDING POSSIBILITIES ACROSS THE EAST COAST FROM
PERHAPS A COASTAL FRONT TRYING TO FORM. HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE
WINDS AS MODEL DATA HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH AN ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL
JET MOVING THROUGH. FINALLY BECAUSE OF THE COLDER TREND AND MORE
PRECIP...HAVE INCREASED THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY WET SNOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
COASTAL STORM MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY BUT SHOULD EXIT OUT BY THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL LOOKS AS IF A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS STRONG TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN
CONUS...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

[cycloneye]

From Baltimore/DC NWS:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 PM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
...FALL BACK: REMEMBER TO SET YOUR CLOCKS BACK ONE HOUR TONIGHT
BEFORE GOING TO BED. WE FALL BACK AN HOUR AT 2AM SUNDAY MRNG...

A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE - THE LAST OF THE UPPER FEATURES ASSOCIATED
W/ THE CLUSTER OF REMNANT LOWS FROM POST-TROP SANDY. ON THE HEELS
OF THIS FEATURE IS THE FIRST OF ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER WAVES
COMING IN FROM THE WEST. THESE FEATURES WILL DEVELOP FURTHER AND
COME CLOSE TO AFFECTING OUR REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES IS A WEAK BUT FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY DRIFTING OVER THE OHIO RVR VLY...SPREADING POORLY
ORGANIZED BATCHES OF LIGHT PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS WAVE WILL BRING IT OVER THE SRN
APLCNS LATER TONIGHT AND OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. THE NRN
EDGE OF PRECIP WILL SKIRT THE SWRN QUADRANT OF THE CWA. STRONG MID
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL STEER THE UPPER WAVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
SRN REACHES OF THE AREA...W/ ONLY SOME LIGHT AND SHORT-LIVED
PRECIP EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

DENSE CLOUD COVER TODAY HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPS MODERATED AT THE
SFC AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A BIT OF A WARM NOSE WILL APPEAR
COINCIDENT W/ THE INCOMING WAVE AT THE 2-5KFT LEVEL AND LIKELY
KEEP THE PTYPES IN LIQUID FORM ACROSS MOST AREAS THAT RECEIVE
PRECIP. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. NO WINTER HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR MESO-OBS AND NEWER GUIDANCE FOR SUBTLE
CHANGES THAT MAY POINT TOWARD MIXED/FROZEN PRECIP.

E OF THE MTNS...TEMPS WILL DROP IN THE 40S LATER TONIGHT AND WINDS
WILL DROP OFF TO A LIGHT BREEZE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BOTTOM-OUT IN
THE M-U30S BUT IT WILL BE RELATIVELY MOIST W/ DEWPOINTS IN THE
L30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER WAVE WILL MAKE A TREK OVER THE SRN APLCNS AND VA/NC
BORDER DURING THE DAYTIME HRS ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIP WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE CWA DURING ITS PASSAGE. THE SRN HALF
OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER WAVE AND THE ISENTROPIC LIFT -
WILL RECEIVE THE DENSE CLOUD COVER WHILE THE NRN HALF ESCAPES W/
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY`S W/ MOST
AREAS JUST CROSSING ABOVE THE 50 DEG MARK BY MID AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MONDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE START OF THE WEEK WILL BE A BIT CHILLY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH AS A VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE DIVES
TO THE GULF COAST STATES AND PHASES WITH ANOTHER TROUGH PULLING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
EARLY ON WITH SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING SHAPE NEAR FLORIDA OR
JUST OFF THE COAST LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL GO
NEGATIVE TILT WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER THE GULF STREAM.
COLD AIR IS MARGINAL WITH THIS STORM BUT DYNAMIC AND EVAPORATIVE
COOLING PROCESSES WILL HAVE TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IF IN FACT
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION BANDS IMPACT THE REGION. SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MORE LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
MOSTLY RAIN EAST ALONG I-95. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY FOR A TIME WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING ISSUES. GUSTY WINDS WOULD ALSO BE A
CONCERN AS THE STORM WRAPS UP OFFSHORE AND HEADS TOWARD SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. WILL HOLD OFF ON DETAILS GIVEN IT IS A DAY 4-5
FORECAST BUT DO HAVE ENOUGH CONCERN TO BEGIN HIGHLIGHTING IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK /HWO/.

THE STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

[jaxfladude]

Words fail me, please let this be a model bust. No likely.

[CrazyC83]

A specific thread for this storm for all areas might be warranted.

[cycloneye]

A specific thread for this storm for all areas might be warranted.

It may be a good idea. Then,specific details about observations,NWS discussions etc for the NE area can be posted in this New England thread and the same for the Mid-Atlantic one.

[angelwing]

Not again, I don't need this

[Sanibel]

Sounds like big waves where you don't need them.

[cycloneye]

Snow is in the forecast for parts of NY State and Massachussetts.Here are the NWS discussions from NY and Boston.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
401 PM EST MON NOV 5 2012



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

...A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...

MODELS BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A SOLN FOR THE STORM. THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE/GGEM ARE ALL SIMILAR WITH THE DEVELOPMENTAL
STAGES OF THE STORM TIL 00Z THU. SOLNS THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFT THE
MATURATION OF THE SYSTEM.

THE CONSENSUS IS THAT A MID-UPR 980S LOW WILL DEVELOP ABOUT 150-160
MILES ESE OF CAPE MAY NJ BY 00Z THU. WITH A 1030 OR SO HIGH OVER
LABRADOR...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS THEY ADJUST TO THE
PRES DURING THE DAY. THESE POWERFUL WINDS WILL LAST THRU THE EVE.
THE CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH IN THE CORE OF THESE
WINDS. AFT THE DEEPENING PHASE OF THE STORM WED NGT...THE LOW WILL
SLOWLY TRACK NEWD BUT WILL REMAIN AN OCCLUDED WIND
MACHINE...PRODUCING GUSTS IN THE 40-55 MPH RANGE THRU THU. EXACT
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND DEPTH OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE
ACTUAL MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS.

DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE NWRN QUAD OF THE STORM WILL PRESENT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE COLDEST
SOLN AND IS TRENDING COLDER. THE PRIME CANDIDATE FOR SIG ACCUMS
WOULD BE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NJ AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. THE FCST HAS BEEN TRENDED COOLER. A MIX HAS BEEN INTRODUCED
INTO PORTIONS OF THE CITY AND COASTS...WITH NO ACCUMS...AND LIGHT
ACCUMS HAVE BEEN INDICATED ACROSS THE HIGHER INTERIOR SPOTS.

BASED ON HOW THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE...AN EWD TREND IN THE
TRACK WOULD RESULT IN MORE SNOW AND LESS WIND.

AS THE STORM DRIFTS PAST AND AWAY THU-THU NGT...PERIODS OF LIGHTER
PCPN CAN BE EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE A FEW EMBEDDED MDT BANDS IN
THIS ACTIVITY...BUT WIDESPREAD MDT-HVY PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED. AS
MENTIONED ABV...THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY AND
DIMINISH THU NGT.

AS ALWAYS...THIS STORM IS STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY SO CHANGES/UPDATES
CAN BE EXPECTED.

A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR WED-WED NGT.

NO WINTER WEATHER WATCHES ATTM. A SNOW TOTAL GRAPHIC HAS BEEN
POSTED.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND SHOULD BRING
FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG TEMPS FRI INTO SAT...THEN
A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE AVG SUNDAY/MON AS LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS AND HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH IN THE
PLAINS AND ROCKIES. SLIGHT CHANCE POP ENTERS THE FORECAST ON MON
AS THE SFC HIGH RETREATS EASTWARD ENOUGH TO ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO
MAKE ITS INITIAL APPROACH.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
410 PM EST MON NOV 5 2012



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BIG PICTURE...
MODEL FORECASTS OF THE SURFACE COASTAL LOW POSITION ARE VARIED WITH
THE GGEM CLIPPING CAPE COD THURSDAY EVENING...THE ECMWF NEAR 40N/70W
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THE GFS HEADED WELL OUT TO SEA. MODEL UPPER AIR
FLOW IS SIMILAR THROUGH FRIDAY IN HANDLING EAST COAST CLOSED UPPER
LOW. ON FRIDAY THE GFS IS FASTEST IN EJECTING THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE MARITIMES WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWEST IN MOVING IT OUT SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA. GULF OF ALASKA LOW MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC COAST
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AND SHOVES UPPER RIDGE EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
THIS RIDGE MOVES OVER THE EASTERN USA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

OVERALL...WE TOOK A BLEND OF GFS ADN ECMWF GRIDS. WHERE APPROPRIATE
WE ALSO BLENDED THE GMOS AND HPC GRIDS WITH A FAVORING OF THE ECMWF
AND HPC VALUES.

DAY-BY-DAY...

TUESDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE NIGHT.
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL AS A SECOND SURGE BELOW 850
MB...MAINLY AFTER 06Z. SO EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS...BUT NO PCPN AS
A DRY LAYER LINGERS BETWEEN 700 MB AND 850 MB INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH
FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...TEMPS AWAY FROM THE COAST SHOULD DROP
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. AFTER THAT...AS CLOUDS MOVE IN
THESE TEMPS MAY RISE A LITTLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 20S...EXPECT MIN TEMPS AROUND OR BELOW FREEZING AT SOME POINT
IN THE NIGHT. FORECAST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/MIN TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF MOS
VALUES.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...
GFS CONTINUES A SLOWING TREND IN SOLUTIONS FOR INCOMING CLOUDS AND
PCPN. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS 0.01 VALUES NO FARTHER NORTH THAN THE
MASS PIKE BY 18Z WEDNESDAY AND WITH MOST PROJECTIONS KEEPING THIS
ALONG/SOUTH OF A PLYMOUTH-PROVIDENCE LINE. MEASUREABLE PCPN THEN
OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION BY 00Z WITH AGREEMENT THAT IT
CONTINUES OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.

RAIN...PRECIP WATER VALUES DRAWN NORTH BY THE COASTAL LOW REACH MAX
VALUES A LITTLE BELOW 1.5 INCHES. THIS AXIS OF MAX VALUES MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS PER THE FAST
00Z GFS AS WELL AS THE 21Z SREF. GGEM HAS TOTAL PCPN VALUES TOP 2
INCHES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF COME IN AT 1.0
TO 2 INCHES. WHILE THE EXACT VALUES REMAIN IN QUESTION...CLEARLY A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY.

WIND...PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS THE SURFACE LOW RUNS INTO THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. PRESSURE CHANGES OF 1-2 MB/HOUR MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON-EVENING.
THIS WILL INCREASE SURFACE WINDS SUBSTANTIALLY. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A ZONE OF NORTHEAST WINDS AT 925 MB WITH SPEEDS OF 50-75
KNOTS. BOTH BRING THESE WINDS IN DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING THESE
WINDS IN. BOTH MODELS DIMINISH THESE WINDS ON THURSDAY. SOME OR
ALL OF THIS WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE COULD BE BROUGHT TO THE
SURFACE IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD BE
40-50 MPH...BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR 60-80 MPH IF THOSE STRONGER WINDS
MIX DOWN.

SNOW...THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN SHIELD ALLOWS TIME FOR
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVEN SO...THERE
REMAINS A CHANCE OF THE PCPN STARTING AS SNOW IN PARTS OF WESTERN
MASS AND SOUTHWEST NH. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE IN THE HILLS. THE 03Z
SREF SNOW PROBABILTIES SEEM REASONABLE...EXCEPT A LITTLE TOO HIGH ON
8 INCH PROBABILITIES.

FRIDAY...
THE GFS MAINTAINS CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY FRIDAY...BUT BECOMES
ANTICYCLONIC BY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A CLOSED LOW
OFFSHORE WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY. THE FORMER IS A
CLEARING SCENARIO...THE LATTER IS A CLOUD SCENARIO. WE WILL GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDS...BUT WITH SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE DAY. STRONG
RISING SURFACE PRESSURES COULD MEAN STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.

[Weatherguy173]

right when i get my power back... and branches still on the power lines...

[Weatherguy173]

A specific thread for this storm for all areas might be warranted.

what will it be dubbed?

[cycloneye]

Here are the snowfall totals for southern New England.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... roduct=PNS

Code: Select all

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
452 PM EST THU NOV 08 2012

THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN DURING THE RECENT
STORM THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO
HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND
MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME
PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/NYC

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
   MONROE                13.5   730 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   SHELTON               10.0   700 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   DANBURY                9.9   709 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   NEWTOWN                9.1   827 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   RIDGEFIELD             8.5   640 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   BRIDGEPORT             8.3   100 PM 11/08  COOP OBSERVER
   DARIEN                 7.9   741 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   GREENWICH              6.0   845 PM 11/07  PUBLIC
   TRUMBULL               6.0  1100 PM 11/07  PUBLIC
   NEW CANAAN             6.0   525 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   NORWALK                6.0   830 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   STAMFORD               5.3   940 PM 11/07  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   NORTH STAMFORD         5.2   940 PM 11/07  PUBLIC

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
   MIDDLETOWN             5.0   707 PM 11/07  AMATEUR RADIO
   DURHAM                 4.5   510 PM 11/07  BROADCAST MEDIA
   WESTBROOK              4.0   700 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   HADDAM                 3.5   500 AM 11/08  CT DOT

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
   CLINTONVILLE          13.5   526 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   HAMDEN                12.0   551 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   NORTH HAVEN           12.0   145 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   MERIDEN               10.8   718 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WALLINGFORD           10.0   840 PM 11/07  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NAUGATUCK              9.1  1150 PM 11/07  PUBLIC
   ORANGE                 9.1   723 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   NORTH BRANFORD         9.0   100 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   WOLCOTT                9.0   638 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   NEW HAVEN              9.0   708 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   SEYMOUR                9.0   830 PM 11/07  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NORTH GUILFORD         8.0   500 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WATERBURY              6.3   300 AM 11/08  CT DOT
   BEACON FALLS           5.8   500 AM 11/08  CT DOT
   ANSONIA                5.5   752 PM 11/07  AMATEUR RADIO
   BRANFORD               5.0   900 PM 11/07  PUBLIC
   GUILFORD               4.7  1030 PM 11/07  PUBLIC

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
   COLCHESTER             5.0   500 AM 11/08  CT DOT
   VOLUNTOWN              3.0   717 PM 11/07  AMATUER RADIO

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
   RIDGEFIELD             7.5  1030 PM 11/07  PUBLIC
   RUTHERFORD             5.0   200 AM 11/08  NJ TPK AUTHORITY
   RIDGEWOOD              4.8  1000 PM 11/07  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   FRANKLIN LAKES         4.0  1200 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   PARAMUS                4.0   200 AM 11/08  NJ TPK AUTHORITY
   MIDLAND PARK           3.2  1030 PM 11/07  PUBLIC
   RIVERVALE              3.0   530 AM 11/08  PUBLIC

...ESSEX COUNTY...
   NEWARK AIRPORT         6.2   730 AM 11/08  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
   MILLBURN               6.0  1015 PM 11/07  PUBLIC
   NORTH CALDWELL         6.0   600 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   CEDAR GROVE            5.8  1205 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   WEST ORANGE            5.5   100 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   BLOOMFIELD             4.3  1040 PM 11/07  SKYWARN SPOTTER

...HUDSON COUNTY...
   JERSEY CITY            6.0   200 AM 11/08  NJ TPK AUTHORITY
   HARRISON               5.2   215 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   KEARNY                 3.5  1030 PM 11/07  PUBLIC
   SECAUCUS               3.5   200 AM 11/08  NJ TPK AUTHORITY
   HOBOKEN                3.3   740 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
   CLIFTON                4.5   200 AM 11/08  NJ TPK AUTHORITY
   HAWTHORNE              4.5   709 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   BLOOMINGDALE           4.3  1215 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   HASKELL                4.3  1100 PM 11/07  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WEST MILFORD           3.5   230 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WAYNE                  3.0   718 PM 11/07  TRAINED SPOTTER

...UNION COUNTY...
   BERKELEY HEIGHTS       7.5   945 PM 11/07  PUBLIC
   ELIZABETH              5.4  1200 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   ROSELLE                5.2   718 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   CLARK                  4.0   200 AM 11/08  NJ TPK AUTHORITY
   UNION                  3.5   200 AM 11/08  NJ TPK AUTHORITY

NEW YORK

...BRONX COUNTY...
   PARKCHESTER            5.0   555 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   RIVERDALE              4.4  1230 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   EAST TREMONT           4.1  1220 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   CITY ISLAND            3.0   840 PM 11/07  PUBLIC

...KINGS COUNTY...
   MARINE PARK            4.0  1130 PM 11/07  PUBLIC
   BAY RIDGE              4.0   625 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   SHEEPSHEAD BAY         3.5  1030 PM 11/07  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   1 NNW KENSINGTON       3.0   858 PM 11/07  TRAINED SPOTTER

...NASSAU COUNTY...
   WOODMERE               8.5   838 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   ALBERTSON              8.5   830 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   NORTH VALLEY STREAM    8.0   634 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   CARLE PLACE            7.4   817 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   ROCKVILLE CENTRE       7.0   400 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   HICKSVILLE             6.6   929 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   MALVERNE               6.5  1115 PM 11/07  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   BETHPAGE               6.2   630 AM 11/08  NWS EMPLOYEE
   JERICHO                6.0   741 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   LYNBROOK               5.0   800 AM 11/08  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NEW HYDE PARK          4.5  1215 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   MERRICK                4.4   524 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WANTAGH                4.1   955 PM 11/07  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   GARDEN CITY            3.4   745 PM 11/07  TRAINED SPOTTER

...NEW YORK COUNTY...
   CENTRAL PARK           4.7   700 AM 11/08  CPK CONSERVANCY
   HAMILTON HOUSES        2.0  1000 PM 11/07  TRAINED SPOTTER

...ORANGE COUNTY...
   WARWICK                4.7  1025 PM 11/07  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   HARRIMAN               4.5   925 PM 11/07  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   BLOOMING GROVE         4.1   834 PM 11/07  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MONROE                 4.1   725 PM 11/07  PUBLIC
   CORNWALL LANDING       4.0   940 PM 11/07  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   TUXEDO PARK            4.0   858 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   GOSHEN                 3.9   745 PM 11/07  TRAINED SPOTTER
   MIDDLETOWN             3.9   705 PM 11/07  TRAINED SPOTTER
   NEWBURGH               3.0   900 PM 11/07  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   NEW WINDSOR            2.6   716 PM 11/07  PUBLIC
   WASHINGTONVILLE        2.1   834 PM 11/07  TRAINED SPOTTER

...PUTNAM COUNTY...
   MAHOPAC                6.5   815 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   KENT CLIFFS            6.5  1030 PM 11/07  PUBLIC
   BREWSTER               3.5   440 PM 11/07  PUBLIC

...QUEENS COUNTY...
   BAYSIDE                7.9   748 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WHITESTONE             7.0   600 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   FLUSHING               7.0  1200 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   FRESH MEADOWS          6.5  1100 PM 11/07  PUBLIC
   HOWARD BEACH           6.0  1000 PM 11/07  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   MIDDLE VILLAGE         6.0  1000 PM 11/07  PUBLIC
   NYC/JFK AIRPORT        4.3   731 AM 11/08  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
   ASTORIA                4.2   730 PM 11/07  PUBLIC
   FOREST HILLS           2.0   734 PM 11/07  PUBLIC
   NYC/LA GUARDIA         1.1   100 AM 11/08  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER

...RICHMOND COUNTY...
   GREAT KILLS            6.4   945 PM 11/07  PUBLIC
   FORT WADSWORTH         3.0   920 PM 11/07  NWS EMPLOYEE
   ANNADALE               2.8   649 PM 11/07  TRAINED SPOTTER
   BAY TERRACE            2.2   700 PM 11/07  TRAINED SPOTTER

...ROCKLAND COUNTY...
   STONY POINT            2.5   941 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   NANUET                 1.0   350 PM 11/07  PUBLIC
   WEST NYACK             1.0   527 PM 11/07  PUBLIC

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   STONY BROOK            5.8   900 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   RONKONKOMA             5.0   900 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   PORT JEFFERSON         5.0   819 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   EAST NORTHPORT         4.5   740 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   NORTH BABYLON          4.5   749 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   ISLIP AIRPORT          4.2   100 PM 11/08  FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER
   BAY SHORE              4.0   700 AM 11/08  NWS EMPLOYEE
   CENTEREACH             3.8   916 AM 11/08  NWS EMPLOYEE
   HOLBROOK               3.5   900 AM 11/08  NWS EMPLOYEE
   SMITHTOWN              3.5   941 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WEST ISLIP             2.8   955 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   MOUNT SINAI            2.7   600 AM 11/08  NWS EMPLOYEE
   SAYVILLE               2.5   730 AM 11/08  NWS EMPLOYEE
   PATCHOGUE              1.8  1231 PM 11/08  NWS EMPLOYEE
   LAKE GROVE             1.6   805 PM 11/07  PUBLIC
   UPTON                  1.1   707 AM 11/08  NWS OFFICE

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
   ARMONK                 9.5   600 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   BRONXVILLE             9.5   816 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   SOMERS                 9.0   835 AM 11/08  PUBLIC
   SCARSDALE              7.2   200 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   YONKERS                6.3   944 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   LARCHMONT              6.0  1015 PM 11/07  PUBLIC
   MOUNT KISCO            6.0   745 PM 11/07  PUBLIC
   WHITE PLAINS           5.0   900 AM 11/08  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   OSSINING               4.5  1030 PM 11/07  PUBLIC


****************COCORAHS STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL****************

LOCATION              24 HOUR     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
   3 SSE BROOKFIELD       4.5   600 AM 11/08  COCORAHS

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
   1 S PORTLAND           6.0   700 AM 11/08  COCORAHS

...NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
   2 NW NEW HAVEN         7.2   700 AM 11/08  COCORAHS
   3 ESE MILFORD          6.2  1000 AM 11/08  COCORAHS
   2 ENE PROSPECT         5.5   430 AM 11/08  COCORAHS

...NEW LONDON COUNTY...
   3 WNW OAKDALE          1.3   600 AM 11/08  COCORAHS

NEW JERSEY

...BERGEN COUNTY...
   1 W TENAFLY            7.6   615 AM 11/08  COCORAHS
   1 SSE OAKLAND          4.8   645 AM 11/08  COCORAHS
   WNW OAKLAND            4.2   600 AM 11/08  COCORAHS

...ESSEX COUNTY...
   1 NE WEST CALDWELL T   5.0   600 AM 11/08  COCORAHS
   1 NE CEDAR GROVE TWP   3.5   500 AM 11/08  COCORAHS
   2 S BLOOMFIELD         3.0   630 AM 11/08  COCORAHS
   2 NNE MONTCLAIR        2.8   700 AM 11/08  COCORAHS

...HUDSON COUNTY...
   N HARRISON             5.2   600 AM 11/08  COCORAHS

...PASSAIC COUNTY...
   1 WNW LITTLE FALLS T   5.3   700 AM 11/08  COCORAHS
   1 SSE HAWTHORNE        4.5   600 AM 11/08  COCORAHS
   6 NE WEST MILFORD TW   3.8   600 AM 11/08  COCORAHS
   3 NE WEST MILFORD TW   3.5   500 AM 11/08  COCORAHS

...UNION COUNTY...
   1 NNW CRANFORD TWP     4.9   600 AM 11/08  COCORAHS

NEW YORK

...PUTNAM COUNTY...
   6 N CARMEL HAMLET      4.5   700 AM 11/08  COCORAHS
   8 NE COLD SPRINGS      4.2   450 AM 11/08  COCORAHS
   4 ESE BEACON           3.1   540 AM 11/08  COCORAHS

...QUEENS COUNTY...
   5 WSW QUEENS           7.0   600 AM 11/08  COCORAHS

...RICHMOND COUNTY...
   1 SE STATEN ISLAND     5.6   530 AM 11/08  COCORAHS

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...
   1 ESE BAY SHORE        4.0   400 AM 11/08  COCORAHS
   1 WSW RONKONKOMA       3.5   700 AM 11/08  COCORAHS
   2 NNE NORTHPORT        0.5   700 AM 11/08  COCORAHS

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
   1 SW YORKTOWN HEIGHT   6.0   700 AM 11/08  COCORAHS
   2 NW SOUTH SALEM       4.3   600 AM 11/08  COCORAHS


[cycloneye]

I found a very interesting winter forecast for New England at the Weatherunderground site. Here is a portion of the discussion.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Blizza ... commenttop

Teleconnections and long term wavelengths remain relatively intermittent and do not highly lean warm or cold for temperature trends over the meteorological winter. But I think one of the more important features to look at is the previous six month's synoptic weather pattern. We are having a hard time breaking down the -ENSO pattern due to the persistent -PDO. I think we will continue to struggle with this throughout the winter. The latest H3 charts off the the global operational ECMWF/GFS are beginning to develop the AV. Whether it remains consistent will remain in question, but this portion of the forecast is critical to the upcoming winter. I am expecting low end Nino conditions, but its effects will have little impact on the general circulation. I am not sold on a -NAO regime over the next few months; in fact the north atlantic has been highly volatile over the past six months. As the -QBO begins to break down, even less support will be there for widespread blocking over the northern Atlantic.

I sort of like the winter of 2006-2007 as a possible analog for the upcoming winter, although possibly a bit warmer for H85 and BL mean temperatures. I expect a return to the amplified southeast ridge that will raise upper level heights up through the Middle Atlantic into possible southern New England. In fact the synoptic pattern may be more similar to a Nina throughout the first half of winter. Nina winters tend to run cold for December; that is important to note.

Long term trends support a lower frequency in Miller A development with a weak, progressive subtropical jet so large KU storms are not expected. Most QPF may occur in association with S/W overrunning events with possible late redevelopment off the New England coast. These events often produce a myriad of precipitation types depending on the anticyclonic conditions to the north.

In correspondance with a weak subtropical jet and generally progressive wavelength pattern, I expect precipitation to average near normal to below normal. The highest threat for below normal precipitation will stretch up through the Ohio Valley into western New England. This remains consistent with the subtle long term drought over this region.

Temperatures will be highly variable throughout the winter. It is evident by the position of cold air pools and PV relations that cold air will be more readily available on this side of the globe (unlike last winter). Therefore continental polar and arctic outbreaks can be expected, but their frequency and length will at times be limited. There will be periods of abnormal warmth under a screaming southwesterly flow during periods when the -NAO relaxes. The threat for mixed precipitation including freezing rain will be amplified this winter due to the abundance of cold air to the north strengthened by CAD (cold air damming) east of the Appalachians as overrunning systems approach from the southwest. Many shortwave and middle latitude cyclones will be fueled by a tight thermal gradient over the middle of the nation. Overrunning, frontogenically-forced precipitation events can quickly produce a quick 6-10in of snow in the cold sector, so they can have widespread impacts despite not being a MECS (major east coast snowstorm).

Overall meteorological mean temperatures will lean above normal for most all climatological reporting stations.

Winter 2012-2013 Selected City Conditions:
KDCA- (+3.5F) (75-90% of normal snowfall)
KBWI- (+3.2F) (80-100% of normal snowfall)
KPHL- (+3.0F) (80-100% of normal snowfall)
KMDT- (+3.0F) (90-105% of normal snowfall)
KUNV- (+2.5F) (100-110% of normal snowfall)
KNYC- (+2.5F) (100-110% of normal snowfall)
KBOS- (+1.8F) (110-125% of normal snowfall)

The bottom line for the upcoming winter support a higher frequency of warm spells in comparison to Arctic Outbreaks. I expect several extended periods of abnormal warmth, particularly during the second half of the winter. Snowfall estimates may be near normal to slightly above normal, but that is strongly based on the fact that the NAO may allow for several periods of blocking. If these -NAO periods do not pan out, I would expect a well below normal snowfall season. Snowfall has the highest chance for above normal deviations north of the I-80 corridor especially across southern New England where they normally do well during S/W flow events. I would expect possibly one larger MECS, but this remains dependent on the state of the NAO. Most snow will occur from other shortwave sources.

As usual, seasonal forecasts often feature lower than normal confidence and accuracy. The forecasts above are highly contingent on the state of the NAO given the general benign forcing from the other factors this year. No additional snow is expected over the next two weeks across the Northeast. Signals for any storminess around Thanksgiving remain pretty weak, so I am not convinced by any long range guidance at this point. I have heard rumbles from energy meteorologists favoring the first week in December for a possible winter storm, but this period is beyond what I can forecast. As in correspondance with my last four winter outlooks, I will post a verification blog during the beginning to middle of March.

[cycloneye]

It looks like a snow event with very cold temperatures will arrive in New England by mid-week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
647 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2012


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
* UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON POTENTIAL STORM TUE/WED
* TEMPS REMAIN COLDER THAN NORMAL THRU NEXT WEEK

00Z GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS LESS AMPLITUDE WITH MID LEVEL
TROUGH TUE INTO WED. THIS YIELDS WEAKER CYCLOGENESIS AND FARTHER
OFFSHORE WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST MA. HOWEVER
THE NEW 00Z UKMET/00Z GEFS AND ECMWF SUPPORT A MORE AMPLIFIED MID
LEVEL TROUGH YIELDING STRONGER CYCLOGENESIS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
BOTH SOLUTIONS PROVIDE SUFFICIENT COLD AIR FOR A MAINLY SNOW EVENT
THRU OUT THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
WHERE MARGINALLY COLD BLYR MAY YIELD A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN.

THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH QPF AND FAR INLAND DOES
APPRECIABLE QPF GET. GIVEN THE OVERALL LACK OF AMPLITUDE TO THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS AND NA WOULD SUGGEST A WEAKER
SURFACE WAVE WITH SLOWER DEVELOPMENT/FARTHER OFFSHORE GIVEN THE
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE MORE
ROBUST UKMET/GEFS AND ECMWF AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND LOW STATIC
STABILITY ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE IS FAIRLY PRONOUNCED GIVEN COLD
AIRMASS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NEARBY OCEAN WATERS. THUS IT WON/T
TAKE MUCH TO SPIN UP MODEST CYCLOGENESIS. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE
HERE AND DEG OF UNCERTAINTY... THINK IT/S PRUDENT TO KEEP BOTH
SOLUTIONS IN PLAY...WITH THE THEME BEING GREATEST RISK OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF MA PIKE.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...DRY AND COLD WEATHER
PRECEDE THE STORM MON NIGHT AS WEAK CLIPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SURFACE FRONT/BOUNDARY COMES THROUGH THE AREA DRY
MON NIGHT AND THEN SETS UP THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
TUE.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING COASTAL/OFFSHORE LOW IT REMAINS CHILLY WED AND
THU WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR FRI/SAT...WHICH MAY BE
COLDER THAN THE AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND!

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

This is Levi Cowan's 2012-2013 Winter outlook and he says New England will get a fairly good doze of cold air and some winterstorms.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NWS products.

See his video here.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Levi32 ... trynum=582

[BigB0882]

I'm getting married in NYC on the 21st. Anything in the long range models to show the possibility of snow around then? It would complete the perfect week, doesn't even have to snow the day of.

[cycloneye]

I'm getting married in NYC on the 21st. Anything in the long range models to show the possibility of snow around then? It would complete the perfect week, doesn't even have to snow the day of.

First,congratulations on the wedding. The best I can tell you at this point is about a possible nor'easter a few days before the 21rst. Of course,is a long time ahead so expect some changes but I will let you know as time gets closer to that date.

[BigB0882]

Thanks! It would be nice to have some snow on the ground while we are there. We fly on the 18th so I suppose I should be careful what I wish for, my flight could end up being canceled. lol

[cycloneye]

Oh oh,you said the 18th? Well,if this pans out your flight may have to be canceled,but is still in long range so stay tuned for more updates as things can change.

12z GFS



12z Euro

[cycloneye]

Hi BigB0882. A potent system on the 18th according to the GFS but the Euro delays it to the 19th. In other words, there is still time for the models to fine tune things in the next few days. Also,the airmass looks to not be very cold for a big snowstorm but again,the models change so stay tuned.

00z GFS



00z Euro