Caribbean - Central America Weather
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Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Hey guys, I've updated the Cold Surges Thread with the latest observations from last week's event: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2289091#p2289091
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Good morning.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST MON NOV 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY IN
PASSING BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLIES...TO
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST OF THESE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BUNDLES WILL AFFECT THE FA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND TUESDAY...WITH A THIRD
INDICATED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 05/17Z. SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA THE REST OF THE MORNING. THEN...SHRA/TSRA AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PR BTWN 05/17Z AND 05/21Z. AS A RESULT...MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE ESE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RANGING BTWN
5 AND 15 KTS BTWN THE SFC AND 10 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...STILL EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS IN NORTHEAST SWELLS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 78 / 40 10 20 20
STT 87 77 87 77 / 40 10 10 20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST MON NOV 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THAT SAID...THERE WILL STILL BE
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY IN
PASSING BANDS AND PATCHES OF MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLIES...TO
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST OF THESE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BUNDLES WILL AFFECT THE FA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND TUESDAY...WITH A THIRD
INDICATED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 05/17Z. SCT SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA THE REST OF THE MORNING. THEN...SHRA/TSRA AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF PR BTWN 05/17Z AND 05/21Z. AS A RESULT...MVFR/IFR CONDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ AND TJBQ. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE ESE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RANGING BTWN
5 AND 15 KTS BTWN THE SFC AND 10 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...STILL EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 5
FEET OR LESS IN NORTHEAST SWELLS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 78 / 40 10 20 20
STT 87 77 87 77 / 40 10 10 20
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
405 PM AST MON NOV 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY A WESTERLY JET IS
RIDING OVER A CARIBBEAN-WIDE HIGH PRESSURE WITH PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THE FRINGE. LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG DOWN
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES NOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PUSHING THE HIGH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND MAKING FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST AND FORCING THE JET CLOSER...THOUGH NOT OVER...THE LOCAL
AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AT LOWER LEVELS...BANDS OF MOISTURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN TROUGHING FROM A STRONG LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THE
COAST OF THE EASTERN UNTIED STATES WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WHILE
BUILDING...FILLING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND REGENERATING THE
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA REACHING THE NORTHERN MONA CHANNEL AROUND 20
N 70 W BY SUNDAY. A TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP A LOW NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE NOT DEPICTED THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH HAVE BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHWEST PART OF PUERTO RICO HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. VERY
HEAVY RAIN WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN EASTERN VILLALBA. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
A STRONG JET OVER FLORIDA GENERATES LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...IN
THE WATERS TO THE EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...THAT MOVES UP THE
EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. IN TURN WINDS RESPOND TO A
TROUGH DEEPENING TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE LOW. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS CLOSELY AND BEGINS TO FORCE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH IT EVENTUALLY STALLS A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO...IT FORCES THE TRADE WIND FLOW BACK TO THE EAST ONCE AGAIN AND
ACTS AS A FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWERS IN THE MOIST FLOW FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC THAT KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN FORECAST FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
ONE NOTE...THE NAM SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY IN THE
TROUGH OF THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING EAST COAST LOW...WHICH...ALTHOUGH IT
MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE NORTH...ALSO BRINGS
MORE SOUTHERLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS EAST
OF PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME CONSIDERATION
WAS GIVEN TO THIS AND THE SHOWERS IT BRINGS TUESDAY NIGHT THE
FORECAST WAS MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION.
ALSO NOTED...GFS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...MOS...ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3
DEGREES TOO COOL AROUND SAN JUAN AND IN THE MID ELEVATIONS. GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS.
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TIST...TJSJ...TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH AT LEAST
05/22Z. AFTER 05/22Z MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE ESE
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RANGING BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KTS BETWEEN
SURFACE TO 10 KFT...BECOMING WEST NORTHWESTERLY AND STRONGER
ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FOR THE NEXT FOUR DAYS AS
NORTHWEST SWELL PEAK AROUND 1 METER TOMORROW AND NORTHEAST SWELL
SLOWLY DIMINISH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 89 / 30 40 40 20
STT 79 88 79 88 / 40 40 30 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
405 PM AST MON NOV 5 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...CURRENTLY A WESTERLY JET IS
RIDING OVER A CARIBBEAN-WIDE HIGH PRESSURE WITH PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THE FRINGE. LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG DOWN
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES NOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PUSHING THE HIGH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND MAKING FLOW MORE
SOUTHWEST AND FORCING THE JET CLOSER...THOUGH NOT OVER...THE LOCAL
AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AT LOWER LEVELS...BANDS OF MOISTURE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN TROUGHING FROM A STRONG LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP THE
COAST OF THE EASTERN UNTIED STATES WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WHILE
BUILDING...FILLING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND REGENERATING THE
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS. AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA REACHING THE NORTHERN MONA CHANNEL AROUND 20
N 70 W BY SUNDAY. A TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP A LOW NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE NOT DEPICTED THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH HAVE BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHWEST PART OF PUERTO RICO HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. VERY
HEAVY RAIN WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN EASTERN VILLALBA. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
A STRONG JET OVER FLORIDA GENERATES LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...IN
THE WATERS TO THE EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA...THAT MOVES UP THE
EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. IN TURN WINDS RESPOND TO A
TROUGH DEEPENING TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE LOW. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWS CLOSELY AND BEGINS TO FORCE A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH IT EVENTUALLY STALLS A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO...IT FORCES THE TRADE WIND FLOW BACK TO THE EAST ONCE AGAIN AND
ACTS AS A FOCAL POINT FOR SHOWERS IN THE MOIST FLOW FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC THAT KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN FORECAST FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
ONE NOTE...THE NAM SHOWS A LOW DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY IN THE
TROUGH OF THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING EAST COAST LOW...WHICH...ALTHOUGH IT
MOVES NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE NORTH...ALSO BRINGS
MORE SOUTHERLY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS EAST
OF PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME CONSIDERATION
WAS GIVEN TO THIS AND THE SHOWERS IT BRINGS TUESDAY NIGHT THE
FORECAST WAS MORE HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION.
ALSO NOTED...GFS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...MOS...ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3
DEGREES TOO COOL AROUND SAN JUAN AND IN THE MID ELEVATIONS. GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS.
&&
.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TIST...TJSJ...TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH AT LEAST
05/22Z. AFTER 05/22Z MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE ESE
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RANGING BETWEEN 5 TO 15 KTS BETWEEN
SURFACE TO 10 KFT...BECOMING WEST NORTHWESTERLY AND STRONGER
ALOFT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH FOR THE NEXT FOUR DAYS AS
NORTHWEST SWELL PEAK AROUND 1 METER TOMORROW AND NORTHEAST SWELL
SLOWLY DIMINISH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 89 / 30 40 40 20
STT 79 88 79 88 / 40 40 30 10
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Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Windy and cool weather is expected this week for Central America 
:
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 PM EST MON NOV 05 2012
DISCUSSION FROM NOV 05/00 UTC: MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...EXPANDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE
LESSER ANTILLES...WHILE FAVORING A NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER AND NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER...THE MODELS
SHOW RAPID CHANGES TO THE MESO-SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN...WITH A
DIGGING POLAR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC TO PUT
A DENT ON THE RIDGE. THE POLAR TROUGH REACHES MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE
THROUGH 36-48 HRS...AND IT IS TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH 84 HRS. THIS
TROUGH...AS IT AMPLIFIES...WILL PRESS AGAINST THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE.
THIS WILL FAVOR GRADUAL EROSION OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL AMERICA...WHILE A MORE RESILIENT CELL
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS
IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CAP BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
AT LOW LEVELS...BROAD RIDGE IS INITIALIZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS FAVOR A LONG FETCH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO THE EASTERN/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF
SHALLOW CONVECTION EMBED IN THIS FLOW...STREAMING ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE AMPLIFYING POLAR TROUGH
IS TO ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THIS FLOW...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH 30-36
HRS. BY 48 HRS IT IS TO REACH SOUTH FLORIDA...ACROSS THE GULF TO
TAMAULIPAS MEXICO. AT 60 HRS IT IS TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...TRAILING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN. BY
72 HRS THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA
INTO THE YUCATAN/CAMPECHE SOUND. BY 84-96 HRS THE FRONT MOVES TO
THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/TURKS...EASTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN. A BUILDING POLAR RIDGE TO THE WEST FOLLOWS THIS
FRONT...FAVORING A 15-20KT WIND SURGE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO-WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE SURGING NORTHERLIES...IN-TURN...WILL
FAVOR A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA-JAMAICA TO COSTA
RICA BY 42/48 HRS. THROUGH 66/72 HRS THIS MOVES TO WESTERN
PANAMA...AND BY 84-96 HRS IT IS TO TRAIL ACROSS HISPANIOLA-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TO WESTERN PANAMA.
FRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE BAHAMAS-CUBA IS TO GENERALLY FAVOR
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...TO FOCUS ON THE SOUTHWEST BAHAMAS-EASTERN
CUBA ON DAY 03 WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED WITH THE SURGING NORTHERLIES.
THIS IS TO INITIALLY CONCENTRATE ON EAST COAST OF MEXICO...
STARTING OVER TAMAULIPAS/VERACRUZ WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. THIS WILL QUICKLY BUILD
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN CHIAPAS TO OAXACA/CAMPECHE-TABASCO-CENTRAL
GUATEMALA TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA
AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY AT 36-60 HRS. AFTERWARDS EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY. SHEAR LINE
CONVECTION WILL CONCENTRATE OVER SOUTHERN NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA AND
ISLAS DE LA PROVIDENCIA/SAN ANDRES...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. THIS THEN BUILDS EAST
ACROSS COSTA RICA TO WESTERN PANAMA. ACROSS JAMAICA EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY...WHILE OVER
EASTERN CUBA THE MAXIMA PEAKS AT 20-40MM ON DAY 02. ACROSS
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA THE SHEAR LINE IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.
FURTHERMORE...UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE DEEPENING POLAR TROUGH TO THE
NORTH...AN INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH IS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH IS TO LINK WITH THE PANAMANIAN LOW.
AS THEY COMBINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL SHEAR LINE AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA AND
EASTERN PANAMA. OVER EJE CAFETERO-SIERRA NEVADA DE SANTA MARTA IN
NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY THROUGH 54-60 HRS...AND 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY AT 60-84 HRS. ON THE CAUCA VALLEY TO THE
SOUTH EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY.
DIGGING POLAR TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS TO ALSO PRESS
AGAINST BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AS THE
TROUGH ESTABLISHES TO THE WEST...AND THE RIDGE ERODES...LOW LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THIS...IN-TURN...DRAWS THE ITCZ NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS EARLY IN THE CYCLE...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY. THIS EXPANDS ACROSS THE
GRENADINES INTO SAINT LUCIA BY 54-60 HRS WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY. AS
MOISTURE SURGES WEST ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA...CLUSTERS OF
SHALLOW CONVECTION ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE ABC ISLANDS/LA GUAJIRA
PENINSULA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY.
SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)
:TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 PM EST MON NOV 05 2012
DISCUSSION FROM NOV 05/00 UTC: MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD RIDGE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...EXPANDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE
LESSER ANTILLES...WHILE FAVORING A NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER AND NORTH OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER...THE MODELS
SHOW RAPID CHANGES TO THE MESO-SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN...WITH A
DIGGING POLAR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC TO PUT
A DENT ON THE RIDGE. THE POLAR TROUGH REACHES MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE
THROUGH 36-48 HRS...AND IT IS TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH 84 HRS. THIS
TROUGH...AS IT AMPLIFIES...WILL PRESS AGAINST THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE.
THIS WILL FAVOR GRADUAL EROSION OF THE MID/UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL AMERICA...WHILE A MORE RESILIENT CELL
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS
IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CAP BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
AT LOW LEVELS...BROAD RIDGE IS INITIALIZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS FAVOR A LONG FETCH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO THE EASTERN/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF
SHALLOW CONVECTION EMBED IN THIS FLOW...STREAMING ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. DEEPER POOL OF MOISTURE
EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE AMPLIFYING POLAR TROUGH
IS TO ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THIS FLOW...WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH 30-36
HRS. BY 48 HRS IT IS TO REACH SOUTH FLORIDA...ACROSS THE GULF TO
TAMAULIPAS MEXICO. AT 60 HRS IT IS TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...TRAILING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN. BY
72 HRS THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA
INTO THE YUCATAN/CAMPECHE SOUND. BY 84-96 HRS THE FRONT MOVES TO
THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/TURKS...EASTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN. A BUILDING POLAR RIDGE TO THE WEST FOLLOWS THIS
FRONT...FAVORING A 15-20KT WIND SURGE ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO-WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE SURGING NORTHERLIES...IN-TURN...WILL
FAVOR A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA-JAMAICA TO COSTA
RICA BY 42/48 HRS. THROUGH 66/72 HRS THIS MOVES TO WESTERN
PANAMA...AND BY 84-96 HRS IT IS TO TRAIL ACROSS HISPANIOLA-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TO WESTERN PANAMA.
FRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE BAHAMAS-CUBA IS TO GENERALLY FAVOR
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...TO FOCUS ON THE SOUTHWEST BAHAMAS-EASTERN
CUBA ON DAY 03 WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED WITH THE SURGING NORTHERLIES.
THIS IS TO INITIALLY CONCENTRATE ON EAST COAST OF MEXICO...
STARTING OVER TAMAULIPAS/VERACRUZ WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. THIS WILL QUICKLY BUILD
SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN CHIAPAS TO OAXACA/CAMPECHE-TABASCO-CENTRAL
GUATEMALA TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA
AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY AT 36-60 HRS. AFTERWARDS EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY. SHEAR LINE
CONVECTION WILL CONCENTRATE OVER SOUTHERN NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA AND
ISLAS DE LA PROVIDENCIA/SAN ANDRES...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. THIS THEN BUILDS EAST
ACROSS COSTA RICA TO WESTERN PANAMA. ACROSS JAMAICA EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY...WHILE OVER
EASTERN CUBA THE MAXIMA PEAKS AT 20-40MM ON DAY 02. ACROSS
NORTHERN HISPANIOLA THE SHEAR LINE IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.
FURTHERMORE...UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE DEEPENING POLAR TROUGH TO THE
NORTH...AN INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH IS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH IS TO LINK WITH THE PANAMANIAN LOW.
AS THEY COMBINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL SHEAR LINE AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA AND
EASTERN PANAMA. OVER EJE CAFETERO-SIERRA NEVADA DE SANTA MARTA IN
NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY THROUGH 54-60 HRS...AND 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY AT 60-84 HRS. ON THE CAUCA VALLEY TO THE
SOUTH EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY.
DIGGING POLAR TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS TO ALSO PRESS
AGAINST BROAD SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AS THE
TROUGH ESTABLISHES TO THE WEST...AND THE RIDGE ERODES...LOW LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS.
THIS...IN-TURN...DRAWS THE ITCZ NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS EARLY IN THE CYCLE...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY. THIS EXPANDS ACROSS THE
GRENADINES INTO SAINT LUCIA BY 54-60 HRS WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY. AS
MOISTURE SURGES WEST ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA...CLUSTERS OF
SHALLOW CONVECTION ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE ABC ISLANDS/LA GUAJIRA
PENINSULA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY.
SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Good morning.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST TUE NOV 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS INDICATED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...AS AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS A TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE
WEST NORTHWEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY IN PASSING BANDS AND
PATCHES OF MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLIES...TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST OF THESE
MOISTURE BUNDLES WILL AFFECT THE FA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND
MORE SIGNIFICANT ONE FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LINGERING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A THIRD CURRENTLY
INDICATED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW PASSING SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WNW ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THIS MORNING. SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PR
BTWN 06/17Z AND 06/21Z. AS A RESULT...MVFR CONDS AS WELL AS
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJBQ THIS
AFTERNOON. LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO
15 KTS...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS IN SUBSIDING NORTHEAST SWELLS ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 90 77 / 40 20 20 10
STT 88 79 88 79 / 40 40 20 20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST TUE NOV 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS INDICATED FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...AS AN ELONGATED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS A TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE
WEST NORTHWEST.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AROUND EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY IN PASSING BANDS AND
PATCHES OF MOISTURE IN THE EASTERLIES...TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST OF THESE
MOISTURE BUNDLES WILL AFFECT THE FA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND
MORE SIGNIFICANT ONE FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
LINGERING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A THIRD CURRENTLY
INDICATED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW PASSING SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WNW ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THIS MORNING. SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PR
BTWN 06/17Z AND 06/21Z. AS A RESULT...MVFR CONDS AS WELL AS
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJBQ THIS
AFTERNOON. LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO
15 KTS...EXCEPT FOR LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS IN SUBSIDING NORTHEAST SWELLS ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 90 77 / 40 20 20 10
STT 88 79 88 79 / 40 40 20 20
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
342 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A LONG-WAVE POLAR TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND FORCE A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE AREA TO MOVE EAST OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL DIG INTO THIS
TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND PASS BY PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY. THEN
THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT MID LEVELS...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC AS A
STRONG TROUGH DROPS ACROSS JAMAICA OVER THE WEEKEND AND CUTS OFF
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH DURING THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY IN
THE ATLANTIC.
AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A WEAK LOW IS ALSO FOUND JUST NORTH HAITI OVER
THE BAHAMAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL A MUCH STRONGER HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE WEEKEND AND A PRE-
FRONTAL SHEARLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL IN OR NEAR THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PASSING BANDS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE IN THE LOCAL AREA
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GENERATING PASSING SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. TOPS
OF UP TO 34 KFT WERE SEEN AT 15:30 AST. ISOLATED ONSHORE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS IN WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO.
GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW A BRIEF DRIER SLOT OF AIR MOVING THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE CLOSING
BACK IN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT
DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UNITED STATES MOVING IN
BEHIND THE VERY STRONG LOW MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD PUERTO RICO FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL STALL NEAR 20 NORTH 70 WEST AND WEAKEN DURING THE
FOLLOWING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC
MAINTAINS AN OPPOSING FORCE OF EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. DURING THAT
TIME PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE AREA WILL INCREASE TO ALMOST 2
INCHES ON MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AS MOIST
AIR FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN WESTERN PR UNTIL 06/22Z. VFR
CONTINUES UNTIL 07/17Z WITH THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS OVER
CENTRAL AND NW PR. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT TJBQ AND TJMZ. LLVL WINDS ESE 10-20 KT UP TO
10 KFT. WINDS W ABOVE 25 KFT INCREASING TO 40-50 KT AT 45 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 5 FEET UNDER MODERATE WINDS
UNTIL SWELL FROM THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY MOVE
INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY IN THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...BUT THIS WILL
BE A BORDERLINE EVENT AT BEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 77 87 / 20 20 10 10
STT 78 87 78 87 / 40 10 20 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
342 PM AST TUE NOV 6 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A LONG-WAVE POLAR TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND FORCE A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE AREA TO MOVE EAST OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS BY THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL DIG INTO THIS
TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND PASS BY PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY. THEN
THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT MID LEVELS...THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC AS A
STRONG TROUGH DROPS ACROSS JAMAICA OVER THE WEEKEND AND CUTS OFF
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS LOW WILL DRIFT NORTH DURING THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY IN
THE ATLANTIC.
AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A WEAK LOW IS ALSO FOUND JUST NORTH HAITI OVER
THE BAHAMAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH MONDAY UNTIL A MUCH STRONGER HIGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE WEEKEND AND A PRE-
FRONTAL SHEARLINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL IN OR NEAR THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...PASSING BANDS OF MOISTURE CONTINUE IN THE LOCAL AREA
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GENERATING PASSING SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. TOPS
OF UP TO 34 KFT WERE SEEN AT 15:30 AST. ISOLATED ONSHORE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS IN WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO.
GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOW A BRIEF DRIER SLOT OF AIR MOVING THROUGH
THE LOCAL AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE CLOSING
BACK IN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT
DURING THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UNITED STATES MOVING IN
BEHIND THE VERY STRONG LOW MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL PUSH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD PUERTO RICO FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL STALL NEAR 20 NORTH 70 WEST AND WEAKEN DURING THE
FOLLOWING WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC
MAINTAINS AN OPPOSING FORCE OF EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. DURING THAT
TIME PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE AREA WILL INCREASE TO ALMOST 2
INCHES ON MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME AS MOIST
AIR FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IN WESTERN PR UNTIL 06/22Z. VFR
CONTINUES UNTIL 07/17Z WITH THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS OVER
CENTRAL AND NW PR. LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND MVFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED BRIEFLY AT TJBQ AND TJMZ. LLVL WINDS ESE 10-20 KT UP TO
10 KFT. WINDS W ABOVE 25 KFT INCREASING TO 40-50 KT AT 45 KFT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 5 FEET UNDER MODERATE WINDS
UNTIL SWELL FROM THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY MOVE
INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NECESSARY IN THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...BUT THIS WILL
BE A BORDERLINE EVENT AT BEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 77 87 / 20 20 10 10
STT 78 87 78 87 / 40 10 20 20
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Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
209 PM EST TUE NOV 06 2012
DISCUSSION FROM NOV 06/00 UTC: DIGGING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NORTH AMERICA HAS STARTED TO PRESS AGAINST THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE.
THIS IS LEADING TO GRADUAL EROSION OF THIS AXIS ACROSS MEXICO AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMAIN. THE POLAR TROUGH TO THE WEST
BECOMES WELL ENTRENCHED EARLY THIS CYCLE...AS IT IS TO EXTEND
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN/YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...
IF NOT STRENGTHEN...OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SUCCESSIVE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES REVOLVE AROUND THIS AXIS. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH BOTTOMS OUT AROUND 15N. BUT...BY 72-96 HRS IT
IS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS CUBA TO CENTRAL AMERICA/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS...AND THE RIDGE WEAKENS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA...A SECONDARY RIDGE IS TO QUICKLY ESTABLISH OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS IS TO CENTER ON A 500 HPA HIGH THAT IS TO
MEANDER BETWEEN THE USVI-NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE HIGH/RIDGE
IS TO HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS IT PERSIST...THIS IS TO
SUSTAIN A SUBSIDENCE CAP OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...
THAT IS TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH 48-60 HRS.
AT LOW LEVELS...THE POLAR TROUGH SUSTAINS A PROGRESSIVE FRONT
ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO/SOUTHERN TEXAS-NORTHEAST
MEXICO. BY 30-36 HRS IT IS TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...
TRAILING WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN. BY
54-60 HRS THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA
INTO THE YUCATAN/CAMPECHE SOUND. BY 60-72 HRS THE FRONT MOVES TO
THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/TURKS...EASTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN. BY 96 HRS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE TURKS-WINDWARD
PASSAGE/JAMAICA TO NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. A BUILDING POLAR RIDGE TO
THE WEST FOLLOWS THIS FRONT...WITH AXIS TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
48-60 HRS. THIS IS TO THEN SUSTAIN A 20-25KT WIND SURGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST. AT
24 HRS IT IS TO EXTEND ACROSS EASTERN CUBA-JAMAICA TO SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA. THROUGH 42-48 HRS THIS MOVES TO
HAITI-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN-WESTERN PANAMA...AND BY 72-84 HRS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHILE MEANDERING ACROSS COSTA
RICA/WESTERN PANAMA.
FRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE BAHAMAS-CUBA IS TO GENERALLY FAVOR
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...TO FOCUS ON THE SOUTHWEST BAHAMAS-EASTERN
CUBA ON DAYS 02-03 WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH THE SURGING
NORTHERLIES. THIS IS TO INITIALLY CONCENTRATE GULF STATES OF
MEXICO...ACROSS NORTHERN CHIAPAS TO
OAXACA/CAMPECHE-TABASCO-CENTRAL GUATEMALA IT IS TO SUSTAIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND NORTHERN
HONDURAS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
40-80MM/DAY THROUGH 36-48 HRS. AFTERWARDS EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. SHEAR LINE CONVECTION
WILL CONCENTRATE OVER SOUTHERN NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA AND ISLAS DE
LA PROVIDENCIA/SAN ANDRES...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. THIS THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS COSTA RICA
TO WESTERN PANAMA...WHERE WE EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY ON DAY 02. ON DAY 03-04...WE EXPECT A
SURGE IN ACTIVITY AS THE NORTHERLIES STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
BASIN...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
75-150MM. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS HIGHLY LIKELY DUE TO STRONG
TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING. ACROSS JAMAICA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY...WHILE OVER EASTERN CUBA
THE MAXIMA PEAKS AT 20-40MM ON DAY 01. ACROSS NORTHERN HISPANIOLA
THE SHEAR LINE IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY... FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH DAY 04 WHEN
WE EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY.
FURTHERMORE...IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP POLAR TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC/CUBA...AN INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH IS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH IS TO INTERACT WITH THE
PANAMANIAN LOW AS THE LATTER MEANDERS OFF THE WEST COAST OF
COLOMBIA. AS THEY COMBINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SHEAR LINE AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA. OVER EJE CAFETERO-SIERRA NEVADA DE
SANTA MARTA IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS...AND
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY AT 36-84 HRS. ON THE CAUCA
VALLEY TO THE SOUTH EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.
BROAD POLAR TROUGH...AS IT ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...IS TO PRESS AGAINST WANING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH ESTABLISHES TO THE WEST...AND THE RIDGE
ERODES...LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 24-30 HRS. THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES ARE
TO THEN RETURN BY 54-60 HRS. THIS IS DRAWING THE ITCZ/ITCZ
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS INTO NORTHERN
VENEZUELA/ABC ISLANDS. OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLES EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY. AS
MOISTURE SURGES WEST ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA...CLUSTERS OF
SHALLOW CONVECTION ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE ABC ISLANDS/LA GUAJIRA
PENINSULA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY. THIS IS ALSO MODULATING THE ITCZ ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GUIANAS...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
209 PM EST TUE NOV 06 2012
DISCUSSION FROM NOV 06/00 UTC: DIGGING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NORTH AMERICA HAS STARTED TO PRESS AGAINST THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE.
THIS IS LEADING TO GRADUAL EROSION OF THIS AXIS ACROSS MEXICO AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMAIN. THE POLAR TROUGH TO THE WEST
BECOMES WELL ENTRENCHED EARLY THIS CYCLE...AS IT IS TO EXTEND
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN/YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...
IF NOT STRENGTHEN...OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS SUCCESSIVE SHORT
WAVE IMPULSES REVOLVE AROUND THIS AXIS. EARLY IN THE CYCLE THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH BOTTOMS OUT AROUND 15N. BUT...BY 72-96 HRS IT
IS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS CUBA TO CENTRAL AMERICA/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. AS
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS...AND THE RIDGE WEAKENS OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA...A SECONDARY RIDGE IS TO QUICKLY ESTABLISH OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS IS TO CENTER ON A 500 HPA HIGH THAT IS TO
MEANDER BETWEEN THE USVI-NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE HIGH/RIDGE
IS TO HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS IT PERSIST...THIS IS TO
SUSTAIN A SUBSIDENCE CAP OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...
THAT IS TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH 48-60 HRS.
AT LOW LEVELS...THE POLAR TROUGH SUSTAINS A PROGRESSIVE FRONT
ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO/SOUTHERN TEXAS-NORTHEAST
MEXICO. BY 30-36 HRS IT IS TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...
TRAILING WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN. BY
54-60 HRS THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA
INTO THE YUCATAN/CAMPECHE SOUND. BY 60-72 HRS THE FRONT MOVES TO
THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/TURKS...EASTERN CUBA TO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN. BY 96 HRS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE TURKS-WINDWARD
PASSAGE/JAMAICA TO NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. A BUILDING POLAR RIDGE TO
THE WEST FOLLOWS THIS FRONT...WITH AXIS TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH
48-60 HRS. THIS IS TO THEN SUSTAIN A 20-25KT WIND SURGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST. AT
24 HRS IT IS TO EXTEND ACROSS EASTERN CUBA-JAMAICA TO SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA. THROUGH 42-48 HRS THIS MOVES TO
HAITI-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN-WESTERN PANAMA...AND BY 72-84 HRS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHILE MEANDERING ACROSS COSTA
RICA/WESTERN PANAMA.
FRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE BAHAMAS-CUBA IS TO GENERALLY FAVOR
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS...TO FOCUS ON THE SOUTHWEST BAHAMAS-EASTERN
CUBA ON DAYS 02-03 WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED WITH THE SURGING
NORTHERLIES. THIS IS TO INITIALLY CONCENTRATE GULF STATES OF
MEXICO...ACROSS NORTHERN CHIAPAS TO
OAXACA/CAMPECHE-TABASCO-CENTRAL GUATEMALA IT IS TO SUSTAIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND NORTHERN
HONDURAS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
40-80MM/DAY THROUGH 36-48 HRS. AFTERWARDS EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. SHEAR LINE CONVECTION
WILL CONCENTRATE OVER SOUTHERN NICARAGUA-COSTA RICA AND ISLAS DE
LA PROVIDENCIA/SAN ANDRES...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. THIS THEN BUILDS EAST ACROSS COSTA RICA
TO WESTERN PANAMA...WHERE WE EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY ON DAY 02. ON DAY 03-04...WE EXPECT A
SURGE IN ACTIVITY AS THE NORTHERLIES STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
BASIN...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
75-150MM. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS HIGHLY LIKELY DUE TO STRONG
TOPOGRAPHICAL FORCING. ACROSS JAMAICA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY...WHILE OVER EASTERN CUBA
THE MAXIMA PEAKS AT 20-40MM ON DAY 01. ACROSS NORTHERN HISPANIOLA
THE SHEAR LINE IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY... FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH DAY 04 WHEN
WE EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY.
FURTHERMORE...IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP POLAR TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC/CUBA...AN INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH IS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH IS TO INTERACT WITH THE
PANAMANIAN LOW AS THE LATTER MEANDERS OFF THE WEST COAST OF
COLOMBIA. AS THEY COMBINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SHEAR LINE AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
COLOMBIA AND EASTERN PANAMA. OVER EJE CAFETERO-SIERRA NEVADA DE
SANTA MARTA IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS...AND
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY AT 36-84 HRS. ON THE CAUCA
VALLEY TO THE SOUTH EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.
BROAD POLAR TROUGH...AS IT ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...IS TO PRESS AGAINST WANING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. AS THE TROUGH ESTABLISHES TO THE WEST...AND THE RIDGE
ERODES...LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE TO
VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 24-30 HRS. THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES ARE
TO THEN RETURN BY 54-60 HRS. THIS IS DRAWING THE ITCZ/ITCZ
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS INTO NORTHERN
VENEZUELA/ABC ISLANDS. OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLES EXPECTING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY. AS
MOISTURE SURGES WEST ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA...CLUSTERS OF
SHALLOW CONVECTION ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE ABC ISLANDS/LA GUAJIRA
PENINSULA...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY. THIS IS ALSO MODULATING THE ITCZ ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GUIANAS...WHERE WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Good morning.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
342 AM AST WED NOV 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVR THE NEXT TWO DAYS
THEN BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS SHARP TROUGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS
THE SW ATLC INTO THE WRN CARIB.
&&
.DISCUSSION...NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT TEMPS IN
THE 90S UNDER STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WITH ONLY ISOLD/WDLY SCT CONVECTION. RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE FROM
THE WEST FRI YIELDING DEEPER INSTABILITY AND THUS BETTER CHANCES
FOR DEEP CONVECTION. STEERING FLOW WILL BE NON-EXISTENT WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING BUT LIMITING FACTOR
FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING WOULD BE LINGERING MID LEVEL
RIDGING/MID- LEVEL DRY AIR.
RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN SAT AND MOISTURE BECOMES MUCH DEEPER AS
NORTHEAST TRADES STRENGTHEN. SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS LIFTING NE
FROM MAIN TROF AXIS TO THE WEST WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WX INTO NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS ALSO WILL BE COOLER IN THE MID 80S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS AT TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND
TNCM/TKPK EARLY THIS MORNING. AFT 07/17Z...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NW PR WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ THROUGH 07/22Z. LLVL WINDS ESE 5-15 KT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT IN NNW TO NE SWELLS. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 7 FT AS SWELLS BUILD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 87 77 / 30 20 10 0
STT 81 80 82 78 / 30 10 10 20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
342 AM AST WED NOV 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVR THE NEXT TWO DAYS
THEN BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND AS SHARP TROUGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS
THE SW ATLC INTO THE WRN CARIB.
&&
.DISCUSSION...NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HOT TEMPS IN
THE 90S UNDER STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WITH ONLY ISOLD/WDLY SCT CONVECTION. RIDGE BEGINS TO ERODE FROM
THE WEST FRI YIELDING DEEPER INSTABILITY AND THUS BETTER CHANCES
FOR DEEP CONVECTION. STEERING FLOW WILL BE NON-EXISTENT WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING BUT LIMITING FACTOR
FOR ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING WOULD BE LINGERING MID LEVEL
RIDGING/MID- LEVEL DRY AIR.
RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN SAT AND MOISTURE BECOMES MUCH DEEPER AS
NORTHEAST TRADES STRENGTHEN. SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS LIFTING NE
FROM MAIN TROF AXIS TO THE WEST WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WX INTO NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS ALSO WILL BE COOLER IN THE MID 80S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND GOOD CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS AT TJSJ/TIST/TISX AND
TNCM/TKPK EARLY THIS MORNING. AFT 07/17Z...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NW PR WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ THROUGH 07/22Z. LLVL WINDS ESE 5-15 KT.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT IN NNW TO NE SWELLS. SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 7 FT AS SWELLS BUILD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 87 77 / 30 20 10 0
STT 81 80 82 78 / 30 10 10 20
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Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Guys, a strong earthquake occurred offshore Guatemala, it's incredible how much strong quakes we've had in the region this year. Today's quake was felt very strong in El Salvador but no damages have been reported, hopefully in Guatemala everything's OK too:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=114195
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=114195
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST WED NOV 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE MOVING AROUND
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EJECTING THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND FORMING A CUT OFF LOW
AT MID LEVELS NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN
COMPLETELY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. A SECOND
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW
MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND STALL CLOSE TO PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AS IT DOES SO MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS TODAY APPEAR MORE FRAGMENTED THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT FORMATION WAS LATE YESTERDAY AS WELL. A FEW
SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO HAVE PUSHED UP TO 35
KFT...BUT SUBSIDED IMMEDIATELY THEREAFTER. A DRY SLOT IS
APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA AND SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION
BETWEEN LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. BUT FOLLOWING THIS...MOISTURE IN
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE UNTIL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE ONCE AGAIN CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD MARK A
PERIOD OF INCREASING SHOWERS AT NIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY WITH THE TAIL OF A BRANCH OF THE THE SUBTROPICAL JET PASSING
THROUGH NEAR THE END OF THAT PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST UNTIL 07/21Z. AS A RESULT...MVFR
CONDS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TJBQ AND TJMZ. AFTER 07/21Z MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE LOCAL TAF SITES. LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY WHEN SWELL FROM THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES BEGIN ARRIVING IN THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS AT THAT TIME WILL
BE AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET WITH SWELL AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN CONTRAST
SWELL ARRIVING NOW HAVE A PERIOD OF UP TO 16 SECONDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 91 77 88 / 20 10 0 20
STT 80 87 78 88 / 10 20 20 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST WED NOV 7 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE MOVING AROUND
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EJECTING THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND FORMING A CUT OFF LOW
AT MID LEVELS NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE WAVE WILL WEAKEN
COMPLETELY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. A SECOND
SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND...BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
AT LOWER LEVELS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW
MOVING UP THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND STALL CLOSE TO PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AS IT DOES SO MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS TODAY APPEAR MORE FRAGMENTED THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT FORMATION WAS LATE YESTERDAY AS WELL. A FEW
SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO HAVE PUSHED UP TO 35
KFT...BUT SUBSIDED IMMEDIATELY THEREAFTER. A DRY SLOT IS
APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA AND SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION
BETWEEN LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. BUT FOLLOWING THIS...MOISTURE IN
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE UNTIL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE ONCE AGAIN CLOSE TO 2 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD MARK A
PERIOD OF INCREASING SHOWERS AT NIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY WITH THE TAIL OF A BRANCH OF THE THE SUBTROPICAL JET PASSING
THROUGH NEAR THE END OF THAT PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST UNTIL 07/21Z. AS A RESULT...MVFR
CONDS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TJBQ AND TJMZ. AFTER 07/21Z MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF
THE LOCAL TAF SITES. LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY WHEN SWELL FROM THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES BEGIN ARRIVING IN THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS AT THAT TIME WILL
BE AROUND 6 TO 8 FEET WITH SWELL AROUND 9 SECONDS. IN CONTRAST
SWELL ARRIVING NOW HAVE A PERIOD OF UP TO 16 SECONDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 91 77 88 / 20 10 0 20
STT 80 87 78 88 / 10 20 20 20
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Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
At least 29 people were killed by the earthquake in Guatemala today 
: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=114195&p=2289281#p2289281
: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=114195&p=2289281#p2289281
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Macrocane wrote:At least 29 people were killed by the earthquake in Guatemala today
that's too much Macrocane! Let's keep the faith hoping that the deathtoll don't grow up!
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Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Unfortunately death toll keeps rising in Guatemala Gusty :S now officially there have been 48 casualties and 17 000 people are homeless after the earthquake: viewtopic.php?f=67&t=114195&p=2289294#p2289294
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Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Usually this would be good news as we love cool weather in Central America but tonight with all the homeless victims of the earthquake it's not nice:
GAP WINDS...A SCATTEROMETER PASS EARLIER TODAY VERIFIED NOT ONLY
THE GALE CONDITIONS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
BUT NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF
FONSECA. THE WINDS NEAR TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
30-40 KT TONIGHT THROUGH THU WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT. THE
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE FRI
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH WITH ONE LAST SURGE TO 30 KT LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. EXPECT THE NE WINDS IN AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO PULSE THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE W TO ALONG
94W...MERGING WITH THE SWELL ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTHERLY
WINDS SURGING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. BEST GUESS FOR
NOW IS THE NEXT GALE EVENT SETTING UP FOR MON NIGHT IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC.
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
137 PM EST WED NOV 07 2012
DISCUSSION FROM NOV 07/00 UTC: MID/UPPER POLAR TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHAMERICA IS PRESSING AGAINST RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH IS TO PERSIST WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE
VORTICES REVOLVING AROUND ITS MAIN AXIS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A
MID/UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHING ACROSS MEXICO THROUGH THE CYCLE WHILE
THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST. TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA BY 72 HRS...AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/JAMAICA/SAN ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA BY 96 HRS AS IT
AMPLIFIES. AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES...NORTHERN FRINGES OF RIDGE IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BECOME ERODED AND THE RIDGE WILL
MIGRATE TO THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICAN COAST THROUGH THE CYCLE.
RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION THAT WILL STRENGTHEN TO AND EXTEND SOUTHWARDS TO AFFECT
THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH THE CYCLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE LIMITING CONVECTION TO SHALLOW SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
AT LOW LEVELS...POLAR TROUGH SUSTAINS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAIGHT INTO EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN. BY 24-30 HRS...THE
FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE
GULF OF CAMPECHE. BY 48-54 HRS THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS INTO EXTREME EASTERN CUBA AND
GULF OF HONDURAS. BY 72 HRS IT WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE TURKS AND
CAICOS/WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO JAMAICA TO NORTHERN HONDURAS.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE APPEARING FAVORABLE FOR A PREFRONTAL SHEAR
LINE THAT WILL BE THE MAJOR FOCUS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. THE SHEAR LINE WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD
TO EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HAITI INTO SAN ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA BY
24 HRS...CENTRAL HISPANIOLA/EASTERN COSTA RICA BY 48 HRS...AND
THEN ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE/SOUTHEASTERN COSTA RICA BY 72 HRS. AT
UPPER LEVELS...BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PROVIDED BY AMPLIFYING TROUGH
WILL INTERACT WITH SHEAR LINE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING. ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ORDER OF
05-10MM/DAY AMD MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. ACROSS EASTERN
CUBA...EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY PEAKING
THROUGH 36 HRS. ONCE SHEAR LINE AFFECTS NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...IT
WILL INTERACT WITH OROGRAPHY AND BETTER DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT INITIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY BY 36-60 HRS INCREASING TO
15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS. ACROSS
MEXICO...SURGING NORTHERLIES WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATIONS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO CHIAPAS/TABASCO. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN INTERACTION WITH OROGRAPHY. ANOTHER REGION OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE GULF OF HONDURAS. EXPECTING
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY THROUGH 60
HRS...DECREASING AFTERWARDS.
FURTHER SOUTH...ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL DOMINATE AS SHEAR LINE INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOL AND
STRONG TRADES IN CARIBBEAN BASIN. INITIALLY...EXPECTING
ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA/EASTERN COSTA RICA/WESTERN PANAMA. NOTE
THAT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY SINCE OROGRAPHIC FORCING
WILL BE VERY STRONG UNDER 25-35KT NORTHEASTERLIES. BY 36-84 HRS
EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO INTENSIFY AS SHEAR LINE PROVIDES ADDITIONAL
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WIND SPEEDS PEAK. EXPECTING
ACCUMULATIONS OF 25-50MM/DAY WITH LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 75-150MM.
SHEAR-LINE/UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
JAMAICA TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS.
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
CONCENTRATE ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN COLOMBIA AS MID/UPPER TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH PANAMA LOW. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ORDER OF
10-15MM/DAY AND LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY...YET BEST DYNAMIC
FORCING/MOISTURE POOL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN
PANAMA/COSTA RICA/WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA
EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ THAT HAS BEEN MODULATED NORTHWARD
BY TROUGH TO THE NORTH. EXPECT A RAPID DECREASE AS SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION INTENSIFIES/IS ADVECTED FROM THE EAST. ACROSS VENEZUELA
EXPECT ALSO QUIET PATTERN IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA/SOUTHERN VENEZUELA WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY DECREASING TO MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY
LATER IN THE CYCLE. ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA/GUIANAS...ITCZ WILL MEANDER THROUGH THE CYCLE.
INITIALLY...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS AND
CONVECTION COVERAGE. HOWEVER...UNDER MID/UPPER NORTHERLY FLOW IN
THE PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN RIDGE...MID-LEVELS WILL COOL
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTION WILL
ACTIVATE BY LATE CYCLE LEADING TO ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY.
SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)
GAP WINDS...A SCATTEROMETER PASS EARLIER TODAY VERIFIED NOT ONLY
THE GALE CONDITIONS IN AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
BUT NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF
FONSECA. THE WINDS NEAR TEHUANTEPEC ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
30-40 KT TONIGHT THROUGH THU WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT. THE
GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE FRI
MORNING...THEN DIMINISH WITH ONE LAST SURGE TO 30 KT LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. EXPECT THE NE WINDS IN AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO PULSE THROUGH SUN
AFTERNOON. THE RESULTANT NE SWELL WILL PROPAGATE W TO ALONG
94W...MERGING WITH THE SWELL ORIGINATING FROM THE NORTHERLY
WINDS SURGING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. BEST GUESS FOR
NOW IS THE NEXT GALE EVENT SETTING UP FOR MON NIGHT IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC.
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
137 PM EST WED NOV 07 2012
DISCUSSION FROM NOV 07/00 UTC: MID/UPPER POLAR TROUGH ACROSS
NORTHAMERICA IS PRESSING AGAINST RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH IS TO PERSIST WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE
VORTICES REVOLVING AROUND ITS MAIN AXIS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A
MID/UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHING ACROSS MEXICO THROUGH THE CYCLE WHILE
THE TROUGH STRENGTHENS TO THE EAST. TROUGH AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA BY 72 HRS...AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/JAMAICA/SAN ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA BY 96 HRS AS IT
AMPLIFIES. AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES...NORTHERN FRINGES OF RIDGE IN
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BECOME ERODED AND THE RIDGE WILL
MIGRATE TO THE NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICAN COAST THROUGH THE CYCLE.
RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION THAT WILL STRENGTHEN TO AND EXTEND SOUTHWARDS TO AFFECT
THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH THE CYCLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE LIMITING CONVECTION TO SHALLOW SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE LESSER ANTILLES.
AT LOW LEVELS...POLAR TROUGH SUSTAINS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAIGHT INTO EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN. BY 24-30 HRS...THE
FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE
GULF OF CAMPECHE. BY 48-54 HRS THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS INTO EXTREME EASTERN CUBA AND
GULF OF HONDURAS. BY 72 HRS IT WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE TURKS AND
CAICOS/WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO JAMAICA TO NORTHERN HONDURAS.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE APPEARING FAVORABLE FOR A PREFRONTAL SHEAR
LINE THAT WILL BE THE MAJOR FOCUS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE. THE SHEAR LINE WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD
TO EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HAITI INTO SAN ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA BY
24 HRS...CENTRAL HISPANIOLA/EASTERN COSTA RICA BY 48 HRS...AND
THEN ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE/SOUTHEASTERN COSTA RICA BY 72 HRS. AT
UPPER LEVELS...BEST DYNAMIC FORCING PROVIDED BY AMPLIFYING TROUGH
WILL INTERACT WITH SHEAR LINE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING. ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ORDER OF
05-10MM/DAY AMD MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. ACROSS EASTERN
CUBA...EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY PEAKING
THROUGH 36 HRS. ONCE SHEAR LINE AFFECTS NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...IT
WILL INTERACT WITH OROGRAPHY AND BETTER DYNAMICS TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECT INITIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY BY 36-60 HRS INCREASING TO
15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS. ACROSS
MEXICO...SURGING NORTHERLIES WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATIONS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO CHIAPAS/TABASCO. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN INTERACTION WITH OROGRAPHY. ANOTHER REGION OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE GULF OF HONDURAS. EXPECTING
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY THROUGH 60
HRS...DECREASING AFTERWARDS.
FURTHER SOUTH...ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL DOMINATE AS SHEAR LINE INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE POOL AND
STRONG TRADES IN CARIBBEAN BASIN. INITIALLY...EXPECTING
ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA/EASTERN COSTA RICA/WESTERN PANAMA. NOTE
THAT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY SINCE OROGRAPHIC FORCING
WILL BE VERY STRONG UNDER 25-35KT NORTHEASTERLIES. BY 36-84 HRS
EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO INTENSIFY AS SHEAR LINE PROVIDES ADDITIONAL
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WIND SPEEDS PEAK. EXPECTING
ACCUMULATIONS OF 25-50MM/DAY WITH LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 75-150MM.
SHEAR-LINE/UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
JAMAICA TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS.
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
CONCENTRATE ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN COLOMBIA AS MID/UPPER TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH PANAMA LOW. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ORDER OF
10-15MM/DAY AND LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY...YET BEST DYNAMIC
FORCING/MOISTURE POOL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN
PANAMA/COSTA RICA/WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA
EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ THAT HAS BEEN MODULATED NORTHWARD
BY TROUGH TO THE NORTH. EXPECT A RAPID DECREASE AS SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION INTENSIFIES/IS ADVECTED FROM THE EAST. ACROSS VENEZUELA
EXPECT ALSO QUIET PATTERN IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA/SOUTHERN VENEZUELA WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY DECREASING TO MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY
LATER IN THE CYCLE. ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA/GUIANAS...ITCZ WILL MEANDER THROUGH THE CYCLE.
INITIALLY...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS AND
CONVECTION COVERAGE. HOWEVER...UNDER MID/UPPER NORTHERLY FLOW IN
THE PERIPHERY OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN RIDGE...MID-LEVELS WILL COOL
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. ITCZ-RELATED CONVECTION WILL
ACTIVATE BY LATE CYCLE LEADING TO ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY.
SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Good morning.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
346 AM AST THU NOV 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUCCUMB OVR THE WEEKEND AS TROUGH
PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE SW ATLC INTO THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN.
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL THEN PERSIST THRU THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WILL HOLD STRONG FOR ANOTHER 24 HRS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON
FRI AS CUTOFF H5 LOW/TROF TO THE WEST ERODES RIDGE. THIS WILL
YIELD DEEPER INSTABILITY WHILE SFC WINDS TURN FROM THE NORTHEAST
ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA.
AS TROUGH PATTERN BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK EXPECT SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO YIELD PERIODS
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND NW PR DUE TO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BTW 08/17Z AND
08/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 IN NE SWELLS BUILDING TO 7 FT ON SUN IN NORTH SWELLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 77 88 78 / 10 0 20 50
STT 87 78 88 78 / 10 20 20 50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
346 AM AST THU NOV 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SUCCUMB OVR THE WEEKEND AS TROUGH
PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE SW ATLC INTO THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN.
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL THEN PERSIST THRU THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WILL HOLD STRONG FOR ANOTHER 24 HRS BEFORE IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN ON
FRI AS CUTOFF H5 LOW/TROF TO THE WEST ERODES RIDGE. THIS WILL
YIELD DEEPER INSTABILITY WHILE SFC WINDS TURN FROM THE NORTHEAST
ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA.
AS TROUGH PATTERN BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED TO THE WEST OVER THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK EXPECT SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA IN A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO YIELD PERIODS
OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND NW PR DUE TO AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BTW 08/17Z AND
08/22Z. LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 IN NE SWELLS BUILDING TO 7 FT ON SUN IN NORTH SWELLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 77 88 78 / 10 0 20 50
STT 87 78 88 78 / 10 20 20 50
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Caribwxgirl
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 287
- Joined: Mon Aug 15, 2011 7:25 pm
- Location: Budapest, Hungary (from Kingston, Jamaica)
Hi everyone,
Just a little update from the Jamaica Meteorological Service
NEWS RELEASE
INCREASE RAINFALL EXPECTED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND
A Cold Front is currently over the northwestern Caribbean, is producing a line of showers from the Bahamas across western Cuba and to the Yucatan Peninsula. As the system move towards the east it should approach Jamaica on Thursday then become stationary across the island on Friday and into Saturday.
Projections are for scattered showers and windy conditions to affect mainly northern parishes from Friday to Sunday. Cooler temperatures approximately 2-3 degrees Celsius below normal are also expected during this period.
Fishers and other small craft operators are urged to exercise caution over northern waters, as gusty winds and choppy seas are expected.
The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation.
ram
Just a little update from the Jamaica Meteorological Service
NEWS RELEASE
INCREASE RAINFALL EXPECTED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND
A Cold Front is currently over the northwestern Caribbean, is producing a line of showers from the Bahamas across western Cuba and to the Yucatan Peninsula. As the system move towards the east it should approach Jamaica on Thursday then become stationary across the island on Friday and into Saturday.
Projections are for scattered showers and windy conditions to affect mainly northern parishes from Friday to Sunday. Cooler temperatures approximately 2-3 degrees Celsius below normal are also expected during this period.
Fishers and other small craft operators are urged to exercise caution over northern waters, as gusty winds and choppy seas are expected.
The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation.
ram
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
321 PM AST THU NOV 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVER THE WEEKEND AS TROUGH PATTERN
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE SOUTH WEST ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE
EASTERLIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND AFFECT THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON
FRIDAY...AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECT WILL COMBINE TO
GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE
NORTHEAST COMPONENT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON THEREFORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW MOVING UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND STALL CLOSE TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS IT DOES SO MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL 08/21Z. AS A RESULT...MVFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ. AFTER 08/21Z MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES. LLVL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...MARINERS SHOULD A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A SMALL TO MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
NNW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 80 87 / 20 20 50 50
STT 78 81 81 82 / 10 10 50 50
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
321 PM AST THU NOV 8 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY ERODE OVER THE WEEKEND AS TROUGH PATTERN
ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE SOUTH WEST ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE
EASTERLIES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND AFFECT THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON
FRIDAY...AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECT WILL COMBINE TO
GENERATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE
NORTHEAST COMPONENT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON THEREFORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND MOVE
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW MOVING UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND STALL CLOSE TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS IT DOES SO MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL 08/21Z. AS A RESULT...MVFR
CONDITIONS AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND TJBQ AND TJMZ. AFTER 08/21Z MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL TAF SITES. LLVL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...MARINERS SHOULD A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A SMALL TO MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A
NNW SWELL WILL BEGIN TO REACH OUR LOCAL WATERS ON SATURDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 80 87 / 20 20 50 50
STT 78 81 81 82 / 10 10 50 50
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Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
The death toll in Guatemala is now 52 people, with more than 2000 homes damaged: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=114195&p=2289361#p2289361
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Good morning. Lovely weather expected this weekend wirh lower temperatures with scattered showers.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST FRI NOV 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS TROUGH PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TODAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PR AS
WELL AS USVI DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS SW PR...THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...
AND MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE STRONGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR LINE...NOW LOCATED WEST OF
HISPANIOLA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHEAR LINE
APPROACHING THE MONA PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ENHANCING CHANCE FOR
SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO LATE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. GOOD CHANCES OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI AS WELL AS
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF PR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUESDAY AS PWAT AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CNTRL CORDILLERA
WITH MOVEMENT TO THE WSW AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING JMZ AND JPS WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS. WINDS FROM THE NE AT 10-15 KT IN THE LOWEST
2KFT. UNSETTLED WX IS EXPECTED SAT-WED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF.
&&
.MARINE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL START
AFFECTING THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 86 76 / 20 60 60 60
STT 86 79 82 82 / 10 40 40 50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST FRI NOV 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS TROUGH PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TODAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PR AS
WELL AS USVI DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WHICH WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS SW PR...THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL...
AND MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE STRONGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN.
WEAKENING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHEAR LINE...NOW LOCATED WEST OF
HISPANIOLA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHEAR LINE
APPROACHING THE MONA PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ENHANCING CHANCE FOR
SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO LATE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. GOOD CHANCES OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI AS WELL AS
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF PR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUESDAY AS PWAT AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CNTRL CORDILLERA
WITH MOVEMENT TO THE WSW AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING JMZ AND JPS WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS. WINDS FROM THE NE AT 10-15 KT IN THE LOWEST
2KFT. UNSETTLED WX IS EXPECTED SAT-WED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF.
&&
.MARINE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL START
AFFECTING THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 78 86 76 / 20 60 60 60
STT 86 79 82 82 / 10 40 40 50
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