Texas Fall 2012

[Terri]

We had one good downpour/thunderstorm here in W Houston this afternoon. Probably about 0.25" or so. We only had 1 inch in October. Glad I don't have fruit trees and such to worry about, but if we don't get some more rains I am going to have to consider watering too even though everything is heading into hibernation flora wise.

Have to get those roots good, strong and steady to head into the winter on the fruit trees this time of year. I was very hopeful on the initial rainfall outlook with El Nino. But, alas, reality is raising its dry, ugly head.

By the way our fruit trees are: fig, peach and the last two years starting pomegranite. The pomegranites are actually doing fairly well with recent climate conditions. They do still need water though.

[iorange55]

Looks like a pattern change is still coming mid-month! Both the GFS and EURO have been showing a pretty strong surge of cold air coming down sometime around the 12th or 13th.

Hopefully the pattern will hold for Thanksgiving. A warm Thanksgiving is just as bad as a warm Christmas.

[Portastorm]

Looks like a pattern change is still coming mid-month! Both the GFS and EURO have been showing a pretty strong surge of cold air coming down sometime around the 12th or 13th.

Hopefully the pattern will hold for Thanksgiving. A warm Thanksgiving is just as bad as a warm Christmas.

Yep. Both the Euro and GFS have been consistently showing this for days now. It's definitely coming and will cool us down probably on the order of 30 degrees. High temps in the 50s and 60s, I believe, are very possible. The pattern reloads quickly and dumps another major cold trough over us around the 17th-18th.

[Ntxw]

As iorange55 and Portastorm mentioned cold is coming. My interest is a little more on the shortwave and storm. There are very low heights involved nearby and models almost never have a handle at these multiple h5 energy interactions (still in the Pacific). A deepening panhandle hook or Lakes cutter storm from Texas is possible. If it's the latter parts of the southern plains will be in the cards for something interesting.

GFS and GEM lately have trended into the split storm idea, northern plains funneling cold while a digging area of vorticity spins up a low in West Texas.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Models are showing snow for the northern plains states. Be good for reducing the amount of cold air that will modify on its way down.

[Ntxw]

If anyone's wondering the Euro today shows snow for Oklahoma to the Red River towards Wichita Falls and possibly the south plains of Texas with the late week/early next week system.

Canadian does also and the GFS has been on and off with it. Vorticity is very strong and it will be going negative tilt so quite possible models are not strong enough with surface features, being 5-7 days out.

[weatherdude1108]

As always with me, hoping for some WET with the cold.

[Patriot12]

:uarrow:
As always with me, hoping for some WET with the cold.

First post. Losing hope for a seasonable Fall, let alone a cooler than normal one.

[weatherdude1108]

Discussion in the Austin/San Antonio office of a possible squall line Sunday night into Monday, then fire threat from plummeting humidities and dry vegetation behind front Monday (since it has been so DRY). Hopefully we will get decent rain to mitigate the fire threat, but hail I could do without, at least hail larger than quarters. But, I guess beggars can't be chooser.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST TUE NOV 6 2012/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUES ARE MOIST GULF RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK...POPS
AND THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WITH A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT SUNDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON MONDAY. THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT...
EVEN THROUGH DAY 7. OVERALL...THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A
BLEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF CAPTURE 90 PERCENT OF THE EXPECTATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH COOL NIGHTS
AND MILD AFTERNOONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST...MOIST GULF FLOW SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO
WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY MORNING.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
FORECAST FOR NOW AS IT COULD END UP AS A STRATUS DECK. DEEPENING
RETURN FLOW AND A RIPPLE IN THE APPROACHING JET STREAM MAY BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE BIG EVENT IS A LARGE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS TEXAS SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY AND LIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE
STORMS... LIKELY WITH A SQUALL LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. RAIN SHOULD
END AND SKIES CLEAR MONDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST.
THIS LEADS TO THE LAST CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER AS GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AND RAPIDLY FALLING HUMIDITY COULD PRODUCE VERY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
MENTION THIS IN PASSING FOR NOW AND SEE HOW MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH LATER MODEL RUNS AND HOW TIMING OF THE DRIER AIR DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE TROUGH AXIS.

[vbhoutex]

:uarrow:
As always with me, hoping for some WET with the cold.

First post. Losing hope for a seasonable Fall, let alone a cooler than normal one.

Welcome to STORM2K!! We look forward to your participation.

[Tireman4]

I will take a normal fall as well. Sheesh. LOL.

[Portastorm]

If anyone's wondering the Euro today shows snow for Oklahoma to the Red River towards Wichita Falls and possibly the south plains of Texas with the late week/early next week system.

Canadian does also and the GFS has been on and off with it. Vorticity is very strong and it will be going negative tilt so quite possible models are not strong enough with surface features, being 5-7 days out.

Both the GFS and Euro have now backed off on this scenario as the large trough plowing through the Southern Plains isn't as deep as yesterday's model runs. Plenty of time though to have that reverse back. We shall see.

[Ntxw]

Both the GFS and Euro have now backed off on this scenario as the large trough plowing through the Southern Plains isn't as deep as yesterday's model runs. Plenty of time though to have that reverse back. We shall see.

They have trended into a positively tilted trough, which as you mentioned does not amplify it enough and keeps the wintry stuff in the central plains. Chances were never that high to verify but it is there nonetheless . At least thus far the models have been in line vs the mayhem of past.

[Ntxw]

Crazy Canadian!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Oh brother....

[somethingfunny]

Oh my.

I'm not sure what there's going to be to chase, but I'm feeling a chase... it might end up being just a fall foliage chase, lol.

And aside, have you guys noticed the leaves changing earlier than normal this year? If my memory's right, they usually change closer to Thanksgiving... my neighborhood's erupted in color this past week.

[Patriot12]

Oh brother....

Interpretation please?

[iorange55]

Oh brother....

Interpretation please?

Just the crazy Canadian being crazy and showing a potential winter storm for Oklahoma and parts of Texas early next week. The Euro model looks like it tries to show a similar storm next weekend.

Still a ways out, but it's nice to have some "excitement" this early in the season.

[gpsnowman]

Usually we see eye candy like that way more than a week out. This is pretty close. We can only hope!!! Is the Canadian model close enough to be taken serioulsy?

[Ntxw]

Usually we see eye candy like that way more than a week out. This is pretty close. We can only hope!!! Is the Canadian model close enough to be taken serioulsy?

It is in the realm of possibilities. It is not some fantasy set up, and can happen but until the GFS and Euro supports it, CMC is an outlier. It hangs on if we can get the southern shortwave to cutoff and be stronger, if not it will be a transient open trough that comes and goes very quickly.

This is the same system that is producing winter storm watches/warnings in Montana, Idaho, Utah, West coast, and high wind warnings in Nevada, very potent and large. This set up has also produced winter storms in November for the southern plains in the past.