ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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weatherdude1108
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#2701 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Nov 05, 2012 3:23 pm

:uarrow:
No kidding! :eek:

If this trend continues, any progress we made with relieving the Texas (southern plains) drought will be halted, maybe even reversed -- heading back towards 2011 drought categories.

A lot of people around here were counting on this El Nino. Hmmmmmm.:roll: :(
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Re:

#2702 Postby wxman57 » Mon Nov 05, 2012 3:37 pm

Kingarabian wrote:This is so depressing.


What's more depressing is that you're in Hawaii and I'm stuck way up north in Houston! I'll trade locations with you for this winter. ;-)
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Re:

#2703 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Nov 05, 2012 11:54 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote::uarrow:
No kidding! :eek:

If this trend continues, any progress we made with relieving the Texas (southern plains) drought will be halted, maybe even reversed -- heading back towards 2011 drought categories.

A lot of people around here were counting on this El Nino. Hmmmmmm.:roll: :(

:grrr: :grrr: Now you've jinxed us!!! :roll: :roll: Honestly, it seems to me we are already heading back that way. We only had 1 inch of rain in October. I call that Deja Vu.
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Re: Re:

#2704 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:46 am

vbhoutex wrote:
weatherdude1108 wrote::uarrow:
No kidding! :eek:

If this trend continues, any progress we made with relieving the Texas (southern plains) drought will be halted, maybe even reversed -- heading back towards 2011 drought categories.

A lot of people around here were counting on this El Nino. Hmmmmmm.:roll: :(

:grrr: :grrr: Now you've jinxed us!!! :roll: :roll: Honestly, it seems to me we are already heading back that way. We only had 1 inch of rain in October. I call that Deja Vu.


TOTAL GUESS only. Nothing truly scientific. Trends can and have changed, and I want to be TOTALLY wrong and unjinx all of us, and hope someone can chime in with some awesome news that warm water is coming up fast, and a moderate El Nino is coming back with a vengeance within a week! :) Or if not, rainfall will be much above normal with temps below normal through the Summer. :D One major flood in the right place can put us back to normal. :wink:
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#2705 Postby NDG » Tue Nov 06, 2012 6:46 pm

At this point I really doubt if we even get an official weak El Nino out of this.
SOI 30 day average has been now positive for at least a month and the 90 day average has been positive for last 6 days.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/
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#2706 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Nov 07, 2012 2:30 am

What about all that hot water beneath the surface.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#2707 Postby NDG » Wed Nov 07, 2012 9:54 am

All that warm water underneath gets cooled off as soon as it reaches the surface by the easterly trade winds which are still at least near average, as shown by the positive SOI.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#2708 Postby AussieMark » Wed Nov 07, 2012 9:53 pm

Indicators of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation remain at neutral levels. Atmospheric indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index, trade winds, and tropical cloud patterns have persisted at neutral levels through much of the southern winter and spring. Temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are generally warmer than normal in western and central areas, but are very close to their average values in the east.

Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to remain neutral, but warmer than average through until at least early 2013.

This year has seen a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which has contributed to below average rainfall across large parts of Australia during recent months. The positive IOD pattern in the Indian Ocean has declined over the last few weeks, and has now returned to neutral levels. This is typical behaviour of the IOD, which usually breaks down before the onset of the Australian monsoon.

Monthly sea surface temperatures:
The sea-surface temperature (SST) anomaly map for October shows warm SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean have shifted westward when compared to the map for September. Between about 150°W and 160°E SSTs are slightly above average. The warmest anomalies remain west of the Date Line, where an area of water is more than 1 °C warmer than usual.

Monthly sub-surface:
The four-month sequence (to October) of sub-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean shows an area of cooler-than-average water in sub-surface of the eastern equatorial Pacific. During October the coolest anomalies in the eastern Pacific were more than 3 °C cooler than usual

Weekly sub-surface:
Sub-surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific remain generally similar to those of two weeks ago. The map for the 5 days ending 5 November shows warm anomalies 50 to 150 m beneath the surface of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

Southern Oscillation Index:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained within neutral values during the past fortnight. The latest (5 November) 30-day SOI value is +3.7.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions.

Trade winds:
Over the past two weeks trade winds have strengthened in the western tropical Pacific. The anomaly map for the 5 days ending 5 November shows trade winds are near-average across the central and eastern tropical Pacific, with weak easterly anomalies present in the western tropical Pacific.

During La Niña events, there is a sustained strengthening of the trade winds across much of the tropical Pacific, while during El Niño events there is a sustained weakening of the trade winds.

loudiness near the Date Line:
Cloudiness near the Date Line has been slightly below average during the past two weeks, but has remained within neutral values.

Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative OLR anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
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Re: ENSO Updates

#2709 Postby NDG » Thu Nov 08, 2012 6:13 am

I wonder if or when the CPC may start adjusting its Winter forecast for the US based on the possibilities of seeing a weak El Niño continues to decrease.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#2710 Postby Ntxw » Thu Nov 08, 2012 2:14 pm

NDG wrote:I wonder if or when the CPC may start adjusting its Winter forecast for the US based on the possibilities of seeing a weak El Niño continues to decrease.


They have been using neutral ENSO as their guide for outlooks. They do mention it is a low confidence forecast since neutral years can go either way and are highly volatile due to other teleconnections overpowering because enso is not a significant player.

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=114001
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Re: ENSO=CPC November update=Neutral for Winter 2012-2013

#2711 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 08, 2012 3:21 pm

Climate Prediction Center November 11/8/12 update

It looks like no El Nino afterall for the Northern Hemisphere Winter.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
8 November 2012

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13.

During October 2012, the Pacific Ocean continued to reflect borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions. Equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased across the Pacific Ocean during the latter half of the month (Fig. 1), which was also reflected in the Niño indices (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies also increased slightly (Fig. 3) in association with the downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). While the subsurface and surface Pacific Ocean has recently warmed, the tropical atmosphere remained largely consistent with ENSO-neutral. Upper-level and lower-level winds were near average, and the strength of anomalous convection decreased over the past month (Fig. 5). Thus, the atmosphere and ocean continue to indicate borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions.

Relative to last month, the SST model predictions more strongly favor ENSO-neutral, although remaining above-average in the Niño-3.4 region through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13 (Fig. 6). While the tropical ocean and atmosphere may resemble a weak El Niño at times, it is now considered less likely that a fully coupled El Niño will develop. Therefore, the previous El Niño Watch has been discontinued as the chance of El Niño has decreased. While the development of El Niño, or even La Niña, cannot be ruled out during the next few months, ENSO-neutral is now favored through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

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#2712 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Nov 08, 2012 3:57 pm

So is this is it for El-Nino?
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Re:

#2713 Postby wxman57 » Thu Nov 08, 2012 4:16 pm

Kingarabian wrote:So is this is it for El-Nino?


No El Nino this past summer and none through the winter. Temps briefly reached the El Nino threshold in mid summer but did not persist long enough for an El Nino classification. Temps are on their way down now. Neutral conditions through early next summer.
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Re: Re:

#2714 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Nov 08, 2012 4:52 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:So is this is it for El-Nino?


No El Nino this past summer and none through the winter. Temps briefly reached the El Nino threshold in mid summer but did not persist long enough for an El Nino classification. Temps are on their way down now. Neutral conditions through early next summer.


(Sigh) :cry:
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Re: Re:

#2715 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Nov 08, 2012 7:58 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:So is this is it for El-Nino?


No El Nino this past summer and none through the winter. Temps briefly reached the El Nino threshold in mid summer but did not persist long enough for an El Nino classification. Temps are on their way down now. Neutral conditions through early next summer.

Would you consider your prediction busted then (12 months ago you predicted an El Nino) or half right? I predicted no El Nino so I'm fine with this :lol: .

While the development of El Niño, or even La Niña, cannot be ruled out...

This perked me up, La Nina talk!
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#2716 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Nov 11, 2012 2:20 pm

30 Day SOI is at it's lowest since October.

Actually since September....

I'm serious September messed everything up. August was in fact really negative.
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#2717 Postby Ntxw » Sun Nov 11, 2012 9:54 pm

There wasn't any noticeable warming of the tropical Pacific last week. Might even see slight cooling or stay the same.

I still do wonder had we remained with the older base period, if we could've seen higher values. If La Nina were to develop it would not be until the Spring at the earliest as it takes time for cold waters to up-well from the depths.
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Re: CPC 11/8/12 Nov update==No El Nino for Winter 2012-2013

#2718 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 12, 2012 3:36 pm

The text of this week's CPC update is released on Tuesday instead of the normal Monday's as is a holiday,but the graphic was updated and as Ntxw said,no changes to Nino 3.4 that remains at +0.4C.

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Re: CPC 11/8/12 Nov update==No El Nino for Winter 2012-2013

#2719 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 13, 2012 3:37 pm

cycloneye wrote:The text of this week's CPC update is released on Tuesday instead of the normal Monday's as is a holiday,but the graphic was updated and as Ntxw said,no changes to Nino 3.4 that remains at +0.4C.

Image


Here is the text of this week's CPC update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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#2720 Postby Ntxw » Thu Nov 15, 2012 1:39 pm

Not sure anyone's noticed but the tropical Pacific has gone haywire with warming smack in the middle of 3.4. Whether this is a one week thing or not I don't know but looks like we're on the doorstep of a 1c+ at 3.4 with 2-3 days left in the calculations to go. We would still need to sustain it through the first half of Dec for a chance of an official El Nino at current levels, tough task to do.

(If the update is today, the warmth would be anywhere from 0.9c to 1.3c)
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