SIO: INVEST 95S

[Crostorm]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.9S 87.6E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9S 84.4E, APPROXIMATELY 840 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEPENING CONVECTION OVER AN INCREASINGLY CONCENTRATED LLCC. A
090548Z OSCAT PASS INDICATES 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
A SYMMETRIC LLCC. A RECENT SHIP REPORT INDICATING 25 KNOT WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND
A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB SUPPORTS THE OSCAT OBSERVATION. THIS
DISTURBANCE REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) VWS. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, THE
VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN VIEW IF IMPROVING EMVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

10/1130 UTC 5.6S 83.8E T1.0/1.0 95S -- Southwest Indian

[Extratropical94]

1- A near equatorial Trough (NET) extends north of 10S east of 68E. Within the NET, convective activity is locally moderate to strong between 80E and 85E. Ascat data of this morning and last avalaibe animated satellite pictures suggest that a poorly defined low level circulation (LLCC) exists near 5S/84E at 0900Z. The LLCC is almost stationnary. Minimal sea level pressure is estimated at 1004hPa. Winds near the centre are of the order of 20/25kt, reaching 30kt in the north- western sector. Lower layers environmental conditions are rather favorable, but east-northeasterly vertical windshear is expected to keep on being moderate to strong in this area within the next 2/3 days. This low may track slowly south-westward for the next 24h, and accelerate west- southwestward beyond. Avalaible NWP models forecast a slow deepening of this low for the next 3 days.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.4S
70.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 69.2E, APPROXIMATELY 245 NM
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION AROUND AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH THE
BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTH. A 162153Z AMSU
85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC WITH VERY
LITTLE CENTRAL CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC
IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE STR AXIS UNDER STRONG (25-30 KNOT)
VWS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS AT 26-28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
LOW.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.4S
66.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 65.3E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING AND BROKEN CONVECTION AROUND AN EXPOSED LLCC.
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 171948Z DEPICTS THE LLCC IS BEGINNING TO
ELONGATE AND HAS A REGION OF STRONG GRADIENT WINDS (25 TO 30 KNOTS)
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC AND WEAK (05-10 KNOT) WINDS TO THE NORTH .
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
THE STR AXIS UNDER STRONG (25 TO 30 KNOTS) VWS. SSTS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AT 26-28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.