Texas Fall 2012

[weatherdude1108]

The STJ is what normally gives us a lot of our moisture, especially during El Nino episodes. What I am starting to be concerned about is the fact there is no El Nino and now I am seeing signs it is not going to be a very "moist" or is starting out that way. And more than likely it will not be as cold as originally thought or wished at least here in SE TX. This could also be the case with the rest of Texas imo.

Note on Precipitation: I made mention about this in the tropic's thread to weatherdude before, during cold PDO El Nino's, the average precip in winter is usually not that much above normal. 2009-2010 (in 2010 if not for Hermine, most of Texas would be pretty dry despite the moderate El Nino lingering effects) both averaged near or below for most of the Texas cities as was in the late 70s. The crazy rain is tagged with the warm PDO. But all Nino's in general are cloudier and more wet days in winter than other enso states, but in terms of rain gauge is nothing unusual like people think it is. So even if we had gotten the Nino going I'm not sure it would've done much for the long term drought and we should adjust our livelihoods to this as the cold PDO is here to stay for many more years to come.

A neutral idea would be equal chances both ways, as the hots are hotter and cold is colder is my guess which is kind of what we've seen so far this fall. I still believe the trend this fall has been cooler than normal when looking at the big picture so it will be nothing like last winter.

I know we need to adjust.

Doesn't mean I have to like it.

Just out of curiosity, how many more years -- roughly -- do you think the cold PDO will hang tough? How far into the cold PDO are we?

Just getting an idea of how to mitigate. Thanks for all your expertees -- as always! I've learned a lot about the weather from your posts/input, seriously.

[vbhoutex]

I disagree about the temps. I don't think we have trended cooler, at least here in SE TX. I do think real cold shots will be colder as there should be a pipeline from NW Canada and the Yukon when some of the troughs set up. I'm thinking overall, it will be slightly cooler than averages, which last winter wasn't(anywhere near average) with several strong cold shots. The precipitation is my concern and yes we are definitely in a dryer period overall imo(I know we are here in SE TX since I have lived in Houston over 40 years). I know it has been a dryer than normal fall here as we only had 1" last month.

[Ntxw]

Just out of curiosity, how many more years -- roughly -- do you think the cold PDO will hang tough? How far into the cold PDO are we?

Think it began in 2007. We've had 2 super Ninas, 2 weak Ninas, and one moderate Nino since. As the name suggests, probably at least a decade.

[weatherdude1108]

Well, cold PDO or not, the CPC's 6-10 forecast precipitation (as of November 9th) suggests above normal precipitation for most of Texas 6-10 days out, and normal precipitation 10-14 days out. Normal temps (exception of above normal temps in the panhandle and north Texas areas).

Not that the precipitation outlook necessarily means anything based on recent trends, but it's on the "half-full" side of the glass in any case.

[Terri]

It is just so dang HOT!!!

[Ntxw]

Here is the relative to average for the Autumn so far. The map shows near average for most of Texas, eastern Texas (east of I-35) was generally 0-0.5 below average side of the white for Sept and Oct which was the coolest in the State. Cooler as you get closer to Louisiana. Warmth was most prevalent along the Rio Grande.



This is a composite of the last 3 previous Sept-Oct periods.

[Terri]

Here is the relative to average for the Autumn so far. The map shows near average for most of Texas, eastern Texas (east of I-35) was generally 0-0.5 below average side of the white for Sept and Oct which was the coolest in the State. Cooler as you get closer to Louisiana. Warmth was most prevalent along the Rio Grande.



This is a composite of the last 3 previous Sept-Oct periods.

nice try.... But, I am still hot. Looking forward to the potential for next week!

[gpsnowman]

Man, that is a wimpy line of storms about to move through the Metroplex. We might get some serious drizzle out of it. Kidding aside, the rain might be a bust but the cool air will not. A nice cool week is not so bad. I miss rain.

[Tireman4]

Come to Houston now, oh front of loveliness. We need you. Thank you.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Wow! its hard to believe another potential storm-maker is going to go through the DFW area dry! How many time have I heard David Mccaulay state we were going to have a stormy end to the week to only have it get dry and windy. By the way, more bad news from the NWS:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Look at all those juicy storms forming well East of us. Nothing but a tattered line of very scattered light precip with the front. Gotta get some negative tilt to pool that moisture back west of us for a change.


SYNOPSIS...

OCTOBER IS ONE OF THE WETTEST MONTHS OF THE YEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY...
BUT RAINFALL TOTALS DURING THE MONTH WERE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AS A RESULT...MODERATE (D1) AND
SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) HAVE EXPANDED ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
ADEQUATE IN MOST AREAS...WATER RESOURCES CONTINUE TO DECLINE.
STORAGE WITHIN THE TRINITY AND BRAZOS BASINS ARE AMONG THE LOWEST
AMOUNTS IN THE LAST 20 YEARS.

EL NINO CONDITIONS HAVE QUICKLY FADED IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC...
AND IT NOW APPEARS THAT ENSO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE DURING
THE UPCOMING WINTER. THIS REDUCES THE LIKELIHOOD FOR DROUGHT-
QUENCHING RAINS. AS SUCH...DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO 2013.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...OCTOBER IS THE
2ND WETTEST MONTH OF THE YEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY. BUT DURING OCTOBER
2012...MUCH OF THE REGION SAW LESS THAN 1/4 OF NORMAL RAINFALL. WACO
RECORDED ONE OF ITS DRIEST OCTOBERS ON RECORD. MANY AREAS WEST OF
WACO...TO GOLDTHWAITE...AND NORTH TO HAMILTON AND EASTLAND...SAW
1/10 OF AN INCH OF RAIN OR LESS DURING THE ENTIRE MONTH. EVEN WHERE
MONTHLY TOTALS EXCEEDED AN INCH...OCTOBER DEFICITS WERE OFTEN OVER
3 INCHES.

I noticed the veering of winds to the west this morning and the shunting of moisture East with it. Oh well, I guess its just me and my dry dusty leaves swirling around the yard for the next week while I hopelessly wait for more rain chances Hopefully, the ever-present 'Mexican Plume' won't make for another dry spring. This capping inversion has been really strong for us the last few springs and killed our spring rains. If we have another one I don't even want to talk about our water situation next summer.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Texas really is on the 'Tail-end' of a lot of activity most of the time. Take a look at this to see what we are missing:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

I have heard the 'Tail-end' phrase lots from Cavanaugh et. al. in the discussions lots of times when it comes to our weather, but this radar image really shows what that means in action. Actually, the 'fat-juicy' active part of the front goes all the way to the Canadian border.

[Ntxw]

The next system that was shown very wet is now dry also. The insanely cold PDO values the past few months is taking it's toll regarding rain. At least it's chilly out there and a week of cool weather is nice.

Recent PDO index
July: -1.52
August: -1.93
September: -2.21

Get used to it it's not leaving anytime soon. (Think years), best we can hope for is an active western gulf hurricane season next summer. But even that will only abate the long term dryness for a couple of months.

[South Texas Storms]

You are already giving up hope for a wet winter? I think it's a bit too soon to lose all hope for us getting at least average precip. this winter. Yes, it hasn't started out the way we would have liked it to, but it's still early imo.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:

You are already giving up hope for a wet winter? I think it's a bit too soon to lose all hope for us getting at least average precip. this winter. Yes, it hasn't started out the way we would have liked it to, but it's still early imo.

Of course not! I always have faith in the winter months . I was speaking long term that those looking for a reversal from the dry outduelling wet will not come. Should lower expectations.

[somethingfunny]

The next system that was shown very wet is now dry also. The insanely cold PDO values the past few months is taking it's toll regarding rain. At least it's chilly out there and a week of cool weather is nice.

Recent PDO index
August: -1.52
September: -1.93
October: -2.21

Get used to it it's not leaving anytime soon. (Think years), best we can hope for is an active western gulf hurricane season next summer. But even that will only abate the long term dryness for a couple of months.

That's pretty depressing to read. Do you think our relatively wet first half of 2012 was an aberration to 2011's new normal for this decade?

I haven't given up hope on this winter either. For example, if this front had just been moving more slowly, we'd have been set for a nice wet storm event this afternoon. It wouldn't be enough to fix the precipitation deficit immediately but if we just got into a rhythm of these fronts coming through at the right time of day we ought to be able to at least maintain precipitation levels. This front was pretty useless though.

I do still expect that even if DFW proper doesn't get any snow this winter (because that is always a crapshoot), somebody within 100 miles or so will have accumulating snow that we can chase after.


... By the way, D2-D4 are quietly creeping back into the picture:

[iorange55]

I do still expect that even if DFW proper doesn't get any snow this winter (because that is always a crapshoot), somebody within 100 miles or so will have accumulating snow that we can chase after.

Why did no one invite me to the funeral? We'll have some chances this winter; I am sure of it! Well, maybe not sure, but I am confident. I can't remember two winters in a row with no real winter storm rolling through. I'm sure there has been, but usually we get at least one snow/ice storm a year here in DFW.

It will not be like last winter...it can't be! RIGHT? RIGHT?

[Portastorm]

I do still expect that even if DFW proper doesn't get any snow this winter (because that is always a crapshoot), somebody within 100 miles or so will have accumulating snow that we can chase after.

Why did no one invite me to the funeral? We'll have some chances this winter; I am sure of it! Well, maybe not sure, but I am confident. I can't remember two winters in a row with no real winter storm rolling through. I'm sure there has been, but usually we get at least one snow/ice storm a year here in DFW.

It will not be like last winter...it can't be! RIGHT? RIGHT?

Way, waaay too early to be thinking that. I'm still optimistic that the DFW will have a winter storm threat before the calendar year is over.

Meanwhile, and in what I consider to be truly sad, another frontal passage down here in Austin today and another fropa with no rain. Boo! Hiss!

[horselattitudesfarm]

I do still expect that even if DFW proper doesn't get any snow this winter (because that is always a crapshoot), somebody within 100 miles or so will have accumulating snow that we can chase after.

Why did no one invite me to the funeral? We'll have some chances this winter; I am sure of it! Well, maybe not sure, but I am confident. I can't remember two winters in a row with no real winter storm rolling through. I'm sure there has been, but usually we get at least one snow/ice storm a year here in DFW.

It will not be like last winter...it can't be! RIGHT? RIGHT?

Actually, this time last fall we were wetter than we are now for October and November. (3.34" for Oct 2011 at Lavon Dam vs .86" this year and over 1" in my guage last yr for November vs. goose-egg this year). Also, statistically, if we wait long enough, it should rain again sometime in the future, although, it doesn't seem to take much these days to exceed 3 standard deviations of extremes like it used to. A Hydrology Engineering professor told me to throw all past empirical data out the window when it comes to designing storm water runoff systems for cities because future climate will not resemble anything that we have designed off of in the past.

Something as basic as having to wait weeks between rainfall is going to have an effect on everything we do...even as I sit in this comfy house with water that still comes out the tap, a functioning computer, electricity, and food I can still buy off store shelves. Look at it this way: 12.7% more people in this state since 2000 + Major drought in an already water-starved area of the country + climate change that is almost guaranteed to raise evaporation rates and expand subtropical dryness over our state permanently + poor water management in most areas = recipe for disaster. Look at these as examples

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE RECENTLY COMPLETED ITS EXTENSIVE STUDY OF
TREE MORTALITY. OVER 300 MILLION RURAL TREES ARE ESTIMATED TO HAVE
BEEN LOST DURING THE 2011 DROUGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 5.6 MILLION URBAN
TREES DIED STATEWIDE. ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...BETWEEN 8 AND
9 PERCENT OF THE TREE POPULATION DID NOT SURVIVE THE DROUGHT. EVEN
LIVING TREES HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY DESSICATED. FOR THE FORESTRY
INDUSTRY...IN WHICH TREES ARE SOLD BY WEIGHT...THIS MOISTURE LOSS
CAN REDUCE THE WEIGHT OF WOOD BY AS MUCH AS 50 PERCENT.

and:
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS

DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE EXTRAORDINARY DROUGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY...CROP YIELDS NATIONWIDE WERE BELOW
DEMAND FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 38 YEARS. BUT IN TEXAS...SOME CROPS
(INCLUDING PECANS) HAD ABOVE NORMAL YIELDS. EVEN FOR CROPS THAT
STRUGGLED...THE CONDITION WAS FAR BETTER THAN IN 2011.

THE CROP CONDITION INDEX...WHICH IS BASED ON STATEWIDE RATINGS...IS
ON A SCALE FROM 5 TO 110. INVARIABLY...CURRENT CROP CONDITION INDEX
VALUES ARE FAR BEYOND THE DISMAL LEVELS AT THIS TIME ONE YEAR AGO.
THE HARVEST IS DONE FOR CORN AND COTTON...BUT IS STILL ONGOING FOR
SORGHUM AND SOYBEANS.


CURRENT CROP CONDITION INDEX VALUES

2012 2011

CORN 70 33
COTTON 46 34
SORGHUM 68 49
SOYBEANS 68 18

So I guess we were lucky in Texas in this aspect, relatively speaking. Anyway, I think we need to be realistic and realize Texas has a serious water problem looming that will take massive amounts of problem-solving to remedy, as well as changes in how we live. I raise cattle in South Texas and can only keep half as many head of cattle as I could in the 70's because of persistant drought. I have come to the realization that these changes are permanent, at least in our lifetimes.

[weatherdude1108]

What a DEPRESSING thread to read today!

I want to believe that the cold PDO is the main culprit (like Ntwx mentioned) to blame for our water woes. Btw, I got light rained on for about a minute in Roundrock. Enough to spot the car.

I guess I need to move to Alaska.

[horselattitudesfarm]

What a DEPRESSING thread to read today!

I want to believe that the cold PDO is the main culprit (like Ntwx mentioned) to blame for our water woes. Btw, I got light rained on for about a minute in Roundrock. Enough to spot the car.

I guess I need to move to Alaska.

I definitely think the PDO has some affect (-PDO: good for salmon, bad for us), but there seems to be a consensus among scientists that climate change effects are starting to overpower ocean-cycle effects as well as astronomical ones as well. I personally think the elephant in the room for extreme weather is the warming of the arctic circle and corresponding changes in polar vortices (Hadley and Rossby waves): This is not my conclusion but those of many atmospheric researchers studying satellite data from up there. Also studies showing warming of the 500 MB-700 MB layers of the atmosphere strengthening capping inversions in the subtropics due to increased CO2 that in turn inhibits convection (i.e. rainfall) is having a large impact on our local weather in Texas. Hopefully some of these studies will be disproven, but the weather lately isn't helping to convince me of that.