Caribbean - Central America Weather
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- cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Here is the October Climate Report for Puerto Rico/U.S Virgin Islands.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=oct2012cr
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=oct2012cr
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- cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
217 PM AST FRI NOV 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS TROUGH PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTO
NORTHWEST HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHEAR LINE APPROACHING THE MONA
PASSAGE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS MOVING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD LATE IN THE MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THUS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. AN INCREASE IN PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE EVENING
HOURS INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A MUCH WETTER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BUT MODELS AGREE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE THE
WETTEST DAY AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. GOOD CHANCES OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI AS WELL AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF PR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
TUESDAY AS PWAT AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS INCREASE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES. AFTERNOON SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA MAY AFFECT THE VICINITY OF
TJPS AND TJMZ AS WELL AS THE INTERIOR ANS SW PR. PASSING SHOWERS WILL
BRIEFLY AFFECT THE USVI/BVI TERMINALS AS WELL AS TJSJ AND TJBQ
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS UNTIL 09/23Z...THEN PREVAILING FROM THE NE AT
AROUND 5 KTS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW ACROSS THE
SW QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 10/16Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 86 76 86 / 60 60 50 70
STT 79 82 82 82 / 40 40 40 40
217 PM AST FRI NOV 9 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS TROUGH PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTO
NORTHWEST HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH SHEAR LINE APPROACHING THE MONA
PASSAGE THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR DETECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS MOVING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD LATE IN THE MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THUS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. AN INCREASE IN PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE EVENING
HOURS INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. A MUCH WETTER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BUT MODELS AGREE THAT SUNDAY WILL BE THE
WETTEST DAY AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. GOOD CHANCES OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI AS WELL AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF PR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
TUESDAY AS PWAT AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS INCREASE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF
SITES. AFTERNOON SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA MAY AFFECT THE VICINITY OF
TJPS AND TJMZ AS WELL AS THE INTERIOR ANS SW PR. PASSING SHOWERS WILL
BRIEFLY AFFECT THE USVI/BVI TERMINALS AS WELL AS TJSJ AND TJBQ
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH
SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS UNTIL 09/23Z...THEN PREVAILING FROM THE NE AT
AROUND 5 KTS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW ACROSS THE
SW QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 10/16Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 86 76 86 / 60 60 50 70
STT 79 82 82 82 / 40 40 40 40
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Good morning.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST SAT NOV 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE WEEKEND
AS TROUGH PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHEARLINE...NOW LOCATED
OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST...
WITH SHEARLINE APPROACHING PUERTO RICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS AS WELL
AS COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY.
UNDER THE PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...EXPECT LATE EVENING/
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF PR AND USVI...AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WETTEST DAY DUE TO
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN INDUCE SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE SHOWERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ISLAND. DIURNAL CONVECTION SUNDAY-
TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CNTRL CORDILLERA
WITH MOVEMENT TO THE WSW AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING JMZ AND JPS WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS. WINDS FROM THE NE AT 10-15 KT IN THE LOWEST
2KFT. UNSETTLED WX IS EXPECTED SUN-WED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF.
&&
.MARINE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK. NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 76 / 50 60 60 40
STT 82 82 82 82 / 30 60 60 40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
427 AM AST SAT NOV 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE OVER THE WEEKEND
AS TROUGH PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHEARLINE...NOW LOCATED
OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST...
WITH SHEARLINE APPROACHING PUERTO RICO THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A
RESULT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WITH SHOWERY CONDITIONS AS WELL
AS COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY.
UNDER THE PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...EXPECT LATE EVENING/
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF PR AND USVI...AND
DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE WETTEST DAY DUE TO
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN INDUCE SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE SHOWERY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH LATE EVENING/EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ISLAND. DIURNAL CONVECTION SUNDAY-
TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CNTRL CORDILLERA
WITH MOVEMENT TO THE WSW AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING JMZ AND JPS WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS. WINDS FROM THE NE AT 10-15 KT IN THE LOWEST
2KFT. UNSETTLED WX IS EXPECTED SUN-WED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF.
&&
.MARINE...A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK. NORTHERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 76 / 50 60 60 40
STT 82 82 82 82 / 30 60 60 40
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- cycloneye
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- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
From the Jamaica NWS.
Code: Select all
November 10 2012
Significant Feature: Frontal trough over the central Caribbean.
Morning: Partly cloudy with showers over northern parishes, mainly fair elsewhere.
Afternoon: Expect isolated showers mainly over northern parishes.
Tonight: Partly cloudy over northern parishes, generally fair elsewhere.
Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)
Temperatures: High: 28C (76F) Low: 23C (73F)
Location
Sunrise
Sunset
Kingston
6:11 a.m.
5:31 p.m.
Montego Bay
6:16 a.m.
5:36 p.m.
Negril
6:17 a.m.
5:37 p.m.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Finnally Barbara,the web cam from the Villas on Great Bay is working again.
Is one of the most beautiful views of the Caribbean.



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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Good afternoon. Cooler temperatures combined with scattered showers will be the dominant weather pattern for the next 24-48 hours in PR/VI.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
356 PM AST SAT NOV 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...AS A TROUGH CONTINUES
TO ESTABLISHES ITSELF JUST WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND THEN PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR HAITI NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...AND ASSOCIATED SHEARLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
THE MONA PASSAGE NORTHEAST...WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH THE SHEARLINE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO MOVE VERY NEAR THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND PROBABLY LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SHEAR LINE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST
WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND LOCAL EFFECTS...
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN PROBABLY LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH THE PREVAILING LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW DICTATING
THE LOCATION OF THE BEST COVERAGE EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT MOST TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10/23Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJPS
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS IN NORTH SWELLS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 75 87 / 60 60 40 50
STT 82 82 82 82 / 60 60 40 40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
356 PM AST SAT NOV 10 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...AS A TROUGH CONTINUES
TO ESTABLISHES ITSELF JUST WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA AND THEN PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR HAITI NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...AND ASSOCIATED SHEARLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
THE MONA PASSAGE NORTHEAST...WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...WITH THE SHEARLINE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO MOVE VERY NEAR THE LOCAL ISLANDS TONIGHT AND PROBABLY LINGER
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING SLOWLY BACK TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SHEAR LINE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST
WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND LOCAL EFFECTS...
SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND THEN PROBABLY LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...WITH THE PREVAILING LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW DICTATING
THE LOCATION OF THE BEST COVERAGE EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AND AT MOST TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 10/23Z...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR...WEST AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJPS
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS IN NORTH SWELLS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER
PARTS OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 75 87 / 60 60 40 50
STT 82 82 82 82 / 60 60 40 40
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Good night all. Just a little news from here. St. Mary one of the Parishes hard hit by Hurricane Sandy is experiencing flooding today due to heavy rains from a trough. The rains are expected to continue tonight and tomorrow. Here's a link to the Jamaica Gleaner story with a pic of the flooding today. http://jamaica-gleaner.com/latest/article.php?id=41058
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Good morning.
This will be the story for today and Monday in PR and VI. I love this kind of weather.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
428 AM AST SUN NOV 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE SW ATLC INTO
THE SCNTRL CARIB WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THRU MID WEEK.
TROF WILL THEN LIFT OUT WITH RIDGING XPCD TO BUILD BRIEFLY THU-FRI
BEFORE A NEW TROF BUILDS AGAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHEARLINE CONFLUENCE NW OF PR AND ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE WILL YIELD SCT-NMRS SHOWERS TODAY. FEATURE OF GREATER
INTEREST HOWEVER IS SFC TROF LOCATED EAST OF 60W WHICH IS
GENERATING SCT DEEP CONVECTION ATTM. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE WWD
NEXT 24 HRS AND HELP TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MON
MORNING ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF PR AND THE USVI AND ACROSS NW PR
MON AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN DEEP
MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 2.25 INCHES PER BLENDED TPW
IMAGERY AND K INDICES IN THE 30S. COULD SEE SOME FLASH FLOODING
TAKE PLACE ACROSS ERN PR MON MORNING.
NOT AS ACTIVE TUE-WED AS SFC TROF WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE MONA
PASSAGE AND DOM REP BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS WILL STILL AID
IN DEVELOPMENT OF SCT DEEP CONVECTION. RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
FOR THU AND FRI WITH SIG MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY MODELS.
MODELS THEN SHOW MID-UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A SFC TROF ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AGAIN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ACROSS TJSJ... TIST AND TKPK IN PASSING SHRA.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH A FEW VCSH AROUND THE
TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING. LLVL WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE
NNE AT 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME WIND GUSTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRA WILL RANGE BTWN 20 TO 30 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS BUILDING 7-9 FT MON IN MIXED NORTH AND ENE SWELLS
THEN SUBSIDING TO 6-8 FT TUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 80 87 78 / 60 50 70 30
STT 81 81 82 81 / 40 70 60 20



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
428 AM AST SUN NOV 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDING FROM THE SW ATLC INTO
THE SCNTRL CARIB WILL MAINTAIN UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THRU MID WEEK.
TROF WILL THEN LIFT OUT WITH RIDGING XPCD TO BUILD BRIEFLY THU-FRI
BEFORE A NEW TROF BUILDS AGAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SHEARLINE CONFLUENCE NW OF PR AND ACROSS THE MONA
PASSAGE WILL YIELD SCT-NMRS SHOWERS TODAY. FEATURE OF GREATER
INTEREST HOWEVER IS SFC TROF LOCATED EAST OF 60W WHICH IS
GENERATING SCT DEEP CONVECTION ATTM. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE WWD
NEXT 24 HRS AND HELP TRIGGER MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MON
MORNING ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF PR AND THE USVI AND ACROSS NW PR
MON AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN DEEP
MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 2.25 INCHES PER BLENDED TPW
IMAGERY AND K INDICES IN THE 30S. COULD SEE SOME FLASH FLOODING
TAKE PLACE ACROSS ERN PR MON MORNING.
NOT AS ACTIVE TUE-WED AS SFC TROF WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE MONA
PASSAGE AND DOM REP BUT MID-UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS WILL STILL AID
IN DEVELOPMENT OF SCT DEEP CONVECTION. RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY
FOR THU AND FRI WITH SIG MID-LEVEL DRYING INDICATED BY MODELS.
MODELS THEN SHOW MID-UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHING AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A SFC TROF ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AGAIN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ACROSS TJSJ... TIST AND TKPK IN PASSING SHRA.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED WITH A FEW VCSH AROUND THE
TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING. LLVL WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE
NNE AT 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME WIND GUSTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRA WILL RANGE BTWN 20 TO 30 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...SEAS BUILDING 7-9 FT MON IN MIXED NORTH AND ENE SWELLS
THEN SUBSIDING TO 6-8 FT TUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 80 87 78 / 60 50 70 30
STT 81 81 82 81 / 40 70 60 20
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
November 11 Jamaica forecast.
Code: Select all
JAMAICA WEATHER
LOCAL FORECAST
November 11 2012
Significant Feature: Frontal trough over the central Caribbean.
Morning: Partly cloudy with showers over northern parishes, mainly fair elsewhere.
Afternoon: Expect variable cloudy conditions with showers mainly over northern parishes.
Tonight: Partly cloudy over northern parishes, generally fair elsewhere.
Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)
Temperatures: High: 28C (76F) Low: 23C (73F)
Location
Sunrise
Sunset
Kingston
6:11 a.m.
5:31 p.m.
Montego Bay
6:16 a.m.
5:36 p.m.
Negril
6:17 a.m.
5:37 p.m.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
332 PM AST SUN NOV 11 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
LITTLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MAINTAINING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT OUT WITH ELONGATED
RIDGING EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE FA FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL REGION WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE MONA PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA AND LOCAL EFFECTS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A GOOD
DEAL OF CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AND THEN PROBABLY LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY...WITH THE PREVAILING LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW DICTATING THE LOCATION OF THE BEST SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EACH DAY. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE APPEARS TO
LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH AN OVERALL
DRIER PATTERN CURRENTLY INDICATED FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA MAY CAUSE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR VIS AND CIGS ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES. FRONT TO THE NW
OF PR IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AND CAUSE SUDDEN SHIFT
IN WIND DIRECTION...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AFTER
12/16Z...TSRA IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PR..AFFECTING
TJSJ...TJMZ...AND TJBQ. VCTS LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR TIST AND TISX DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT LOCATION OF TSRA ACROSS THE WATERS.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
4 TO 8 FEET IN NORTH SWELLS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...WITH THE SEAS GENERALLY HIGHEST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES...AS
NORTH SWELLS PEAK. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS TONIGHT AND SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING WATERS. PLEASE REFER
TO SJUCWFSJU FOR FORECAST DETAILS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 76 87 / 50 70 30 40
STT 81 82 81 82 / 70 60 20 20
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- cycloneye
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Re:
Caribwxgirl wrote:Good night all. Just a little news from here. St. Mary one of the Parishes hard hit by Hurricane Sandy is experiencing flooding today due to heavy rains from a trough. The rains are expected to continue tonight and tomorrow. Here's a link to the Jamaica Gleaner story with a pic of the flooding today. http://jamaica-gleaner.com/latest/article.php?id=41058
Caribwxgirl,to let you know that I have been posting here the daily weather forecasts for Jamaica while the internet comes back over there. Hopefully,nothing bad occurs with that event.
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Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Good morning. More rain is expected today in PR.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST MON NOV 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE JUST NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THE REST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD AND ENTER THE MONA PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS TROUGH AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DEEPLY AMPLIFIED MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE
MONA PASSAGE...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT TUESDAY...WHEN IT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO FILL WHILE LIFTING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TODAY AND
HELP PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY. THE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS INDUCED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SHEAR LINE WILL HELP
ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL FUT HER ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND PRODUCE
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND
LOCAL WATERS. EXPECT THE CONSIDERABLY MOIST AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL SHEAR LINE AND SURFACE TROUGH TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL GIVE WAY TO UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREAFTER AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FILL WHILE LIFTING NORTHWARDS.
EXPECT A CONTINUED OVERALL WET WEATHER REGIME THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
REGIONS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AS WELL ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. DURING THE AFTERNOONS EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL... WEST INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
A GRADUAL DECLINE OF OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AS WELL
AS LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD ALOFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION AND REST OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE DIMINISHING CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LESSER SHOWERS
AND FEWER THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BY THAT TIME AND INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ...TIST...TISX AND TNCM
IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
A FEW VCSH AROUND THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12/16Z. L/LVL WIND FLOW WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NE AT 10 TO 20 KTS THIS MORNING...VEERING TO THE E
TO ESE THIS AFTERNOON. SHWR COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AFT 12/16Z...
AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES OVER THE LOCAL AREA FM THE EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 87 76 / 70 30 40 40
STT 87 77 87 78 / 60 20 20 40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
449 AM AST MON NOV 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE JUST NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE
THROUGH TUESDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH NOW MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS THE REST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
WESTWARD AND ENTER THE MONA PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THIS TROUGH AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN
A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. DEEPLY AMPLIFIED MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE
MONA PASSAGE...WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH AT TUESDAY...WHEN IT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO FILL WHILE LIFTING NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TODAY AND
HELP PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY. THE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS INDUCED BY THE SURFACE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SHEAR LINE WILL HELP
ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL FUT HER ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND PRODUCE
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND
LOCAL WATERS. EXPECT THE CONSIDERABLY MOIST AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL SHEAR LINE AND SURFACE TROUGH TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK. GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL GIVE WAY TO UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREAFTER AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FILL WHILE LIFTING NORTHWARDS.
EXPECT A CONTINUED OVERALL WET WEATHER REGIME THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK WITH INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
REGIONS OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AS WELL ACROSS THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS. DURING THE AFTERNOONS EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL... WEST INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
A GRADUAL DECLINE OF OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...AS WELL
AS LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL BUILD ALOFT ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION AND REST OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE DIMINISHING CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LESSER SHOWERS
AND FEWER THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED BY THAT TIME AND INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ...TIST...TISX AND TNCM
IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
A FEW VCSH AROUND THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12/16Z. L/LVL WIND FLOW WILL
REMAIN FROM THE NE AT 10 TO 20 KTS THIS MORNING...VEERING TO THE E
TO ESE THIS AFTERNOON. SHWR COVERAGE WILL INCREASE AFT 12/16Z...
AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES OVER THE LOCAL AREA FM THE EAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 87 76 / 70 30 40 40
STT 87 77 87 78 / 60 20 20 40
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- cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
November 12 Jamaica forecast.
Code: Select all
JAMAICA WEATHER
LOCAL FORECAST
November 12 2012
Significant Feature: Surface trough over the central Caribbean.
Morning: Mainly fair.
Afternoon: Expect variable cloudy conditions with isolated showers mainly over eastern parishes.
Tonight: Fair.
Winds: Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)
Temperatures: High: 30C (80F) Low: 24C (75F)
Location
Sunrise
Sunset
Kingston
6:12 a.m.
5:31 p.m.
Montego Bay
6:17 a.m.
5:36 p.m.
Negril
6:18 a.m.
5:37 p.m.
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- Location: Budapest, Hungary (from Kingston, Jamaica)
Thanks..the internet is back. Unfortunately for the people of St. Mary they've had it bad. I guess the ground was so saturated that the rain that fell didn't run off. The news last night was pretty bad. People were out doing their normal Saturday business and then the rain fell for about 30 minutes and they ended up trapped in chest high water.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
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Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
350 PM AST MON NOV 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
LITTLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MAINTAINING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT
OUT WITH ELONGATED RIDGING EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE FA FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST INTO THE MONA
PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST
THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND LOCAL EFFECTS...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEPER MOISTURE CURRENTLY INDICATED FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 12/18Z...
CAUSING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WEATHER EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ACROSS NW
PUERTO RICO AFTER 13/00Z. THEREAFTER...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 6K FT AS
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AFTER 13/12Z FROM THE EAST AT
AROUND 10KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
4 TO 8 FEET IN NORTH SWELLS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...WITH THE SEAS GENERALLY HIGHEST TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES...AS NORTH SWELLS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT AND SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING WATERS. PLEASE REFER
TO SJUCWFSJU FOR FORECAST DETAILS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 88 76 / 70 30 50 40
STT 87 77 87 78 / 60 20 20 40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
350 PM AST MON NOV 12 2012
.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
LITTLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MAINTAINING UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT
OUT WITH ELONGATED RIDGING EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE FA FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST INTO THE MONA
PASSAGE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST
THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND LOCAL EFFECTS...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN
CURRENTLY EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEPER MOISTURE CURRENTLY INDICATED FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT TJMZ AND TJBQ AFTER 12/18Z...
CAUSING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WEATHER EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ACROSS NW
PUERTO RICO AFTER 13/00Z. THEREAFTER...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH CEILINGS AROUND 6K FT AS
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. WIND IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING ONCE AGAIN AFTER 13/12Z FROM THE EAST AT
AROUND 10KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
4 TO 8 FEET IN NORTH SWELLS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...WITH THE SEAS GENERALLY HIGHEST TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES...AS NORTH SWELLS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT AND SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINING WATERS. PLEASE REFER
TO SJUCWFSJU FOR FORECAST DETAILS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 88 76 / 70 30 50 40
STT 87 77 87 78 / 60 20 20 40
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- cycloneye
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Re:
Caribwxgirl wrote:Thanks..the internet is back. Unfortunately for the people of St. Mary they've had it bad. I guess the ground was so saturated that the rain that fell didn't run off. The news last night was pretty bad. People were out doing their normal Saturday business and then the rain fell for about 30 minutes and they ended up trapped in chest high water.
Great news about the internet returning. Hopefully,Jamaica has a dry period that allows the saturated grounds to turn less saturated.
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Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
Good morning.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER TROUGH SAGGING
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND MAINTAINING A STRONG DIFFLUENT
PATTERN AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH AXIS NOW OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE...
WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND LATEST BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWED A DEEP TONGUE OF
MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES NOW AT 2.00
INCHES OF MORE...MAKING THE LOCAL AIR MASS VERY UNSTABLE AND RIPE
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING CONTINUED ALONG
MUCH OF THE COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS OVER
PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS PRODUCED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN ISOLATED AREAS... WHICH EVENTUALLY LEAD TO QUICK RISES OF
RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS AS WELL AS MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
EXPECT THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY FAVORABLE AND
MOIST ENVIRONMENT... EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER ONCE
AGAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE FOCUSED MAINLY AROUND PUERTO RICO... AS CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY
UNSTABLE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD GREATLY ENHANCE DAYTIME CONVECTION. EXPECT
CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR
SO...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PWAT VALUES/ LAYERED MOISTURE BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARDS.
ALSO DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...MODELS SUGGESTS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
THEREFORE DIMINISHING CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LESSER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED BY THAT TIME AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
TISX...TJPS...TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ UNTIL AT LEAST 13/11Z. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FLYING AREA BETWEEN 13/11Z AD
13/16Z. THEN...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 13/17Z AND
13/22Z ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL PR...AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING TJMZ
AND TJBQ. TJSJ 13/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO
20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND
STRONGER ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 87 76 / 30 30 30 10
STT 87 77 87 78 / 20 30 20 10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER TROUGH SAGGING
SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND MAINTAINING A STRONG DIFFLUENT
PATTERN AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH AXIS NOW OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE...
WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY. SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND LATEST BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWED A DEEP TONGUE OF
MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PWAT VALUES NOW AT 2.00
INCHES OF MORE...MAKING THE LOCAL AIR MASS VERY UNSTABLE AND RIPE
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING CONTINUED ALONG
MUCH OF THE COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS OVER
PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING. THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS PRODUCED PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN ISOLATED AREAS... WHICH EVENTUALLY LEAD TO QUICK RISES OF
RIVERS AND SMALL STREAMS AS WELL AS MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
EXPECT THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY FAVORABLE AND
MOIST ENVIRONMENT... EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER ONCE
AGAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE FOCUSED MAINLY AROUND PUERTO RICO... AS CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY
UNSTABLE DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH WHICH SHOULD GREATLY ENHANCE DAYTIME CONVECTION. EXPECT
CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR
SO...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PWAT VALUES/ LAYERED MOISTURE BY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY AS UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARDS.
ALSO DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...MODELS SUGGESTS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.
THEREFORE DIMINISHING CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LESSER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED BY THAT TIME AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
TISX...TJPS...TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJSJ UNTIL AT LEAST 13/11Z. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FLYING AREA BETWEEN 13/11Z AD
13/16Z. THEN...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 13/17Z AND
13/22Z ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL PR...AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING TJMZ
AND TJBQ. TJSJ 13/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW UP TO
20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO 10K...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND
STRONGER ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 87 76 / 30 30 30 10
STT 87 77 87 78 / 20 30 20 10
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
November 13 Jamaica forecast.
Code: Select all
JAMAICA WEATHER
LOCAL FORECAST
November 13 2012
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the northern Caribbean.
Morning: Mainly sunny.
Afternoon: Generally fair, except for isolated showers over hilly interior areas.
Tonight: Fair.
Winds: Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)
Temperatures: High: 31C (82F) Low: 24C (75F)
Location
Sunrise
Sunset
Kingston
6:12 a.m.
5:31 p.m.
Montego Bay
6:17 a.m.
5:36 p.m.
Negril
6:18 a.m.
5:37 p.m.
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- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145308
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Caribbean - CentralAmerica Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA CONTINUES
TO RETROGRADE AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH
WITH AXIS NOW OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST BLENDED TPW PRODUCT
SHOWED A DEEP MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOW AT JUST OVER 2 INCHES AND EVEN A BIT
HIGHER JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DENSE CLOUDINESS HAS KEPT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY...ONLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
WERE OBSERVED TODAY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS LINE OF
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST...KEEPING THE MONA PASSAGE AND AREAS TO THE WEST OF
PUERTO RICO WITH DENSE CLOUDINESS FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABUNDANT
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL PATCH OF DRIER AIR
ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY LIMIT
THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PR/USVI
TERMINALS BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. WIND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS UNTIL
13/22Z...THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT TO ABOUT 5 KTS...INCREASING AFTER
14/12Z TO AROUND 10 KTS BUT STILL MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
&&
.MARINE...SAN JUAN BUOY HAS BEEN DECREASING STEADILY AND NOW IS
JUST UNDER 6 FEET. EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE STILL IN THE
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS STILL IN
EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 76 87 / 30 30 10 10
STT 77 87 78 87 / 30 20 10 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST TUE NOV 13 2012
.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA CONTINUES
TO RETROGRADE AND AN UPPER RIDGE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP JUST TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE TROUGH
WITH AXIS NOW OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST BLENDED TPW PRODUCT
SHOWED A DEEP MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NOW AT JUST OVER 2 INCHES AND EVEN A BIT
HIGHER JUST EAST OF THE AREA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...DENSE CLOUDINESS HAS KEPT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY...ONLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
WERE OBSERVED TODAY ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS LINE OF
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST...KEEPING THE MONA PASSAGE AND AREAS TO THE WEST OF
PUERTO RICO WITH DENSE CLOUDINESS FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABUNDANT
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SMALL PATCH OF DRIER AIR
ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE MAY LIMIT
THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH PASSING SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PR/USVI
TERMINALS BUT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. WIND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS UNTIL
13/22Z...THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT TO ABOUT 5 KTS...INCREASING AFTER
14/12Z TO AROUND 10 KTS BUT STILL MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.
&&
.MARINE...SAN JUAN BUOY HAS BEEN DECREASING STEADILY AND NOW IS
JUST UNDER 6 FEET. EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE STILL IN THE
COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS STILL IN
EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 76 87 / 30 30 10 10
STT 77 87 78 87 / 30 20 10 10
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