Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Portastorm]

One of the local ProMets in Austin mentioned an Arctic Outbreak?!!! I want SNOW!!!!

Hmm ... I wonder which one of our local mets made that mention. Calling next week's cold front an "Arctic Outbreak" is a stretch. Yes it has the potential to be the strongest we've seen this fall season and to drop temps well below normal, but I would not classify it as a true Arctic Outbreak. And you know the PWC can be prone to hyperbole so for me to say that ...

[TexasF6]

Porta, It was Jim on channel 36. I know he's not the CW guy locally, but still I heard those magical words....alas...the wxman57 rules of snowpack, blah blah warm in TX yadda yadda kick in and defy my dreams of snow for now....but not forever!!!! I want my snow!!!!

Happy Thanksgiving Everyone!

[Tireman4]

I am just saying, Mother Nature, bring it please ma'am. After that travesty of a winter last year, please.

[Kennethb]

I am just saying, Mother Nature, bring it please ma'am. After that travesty of a winter last year, please.

Has to be a colder winter this year. Can't get much warmer than last winter?

[jporterOCCC]

I see Texas is even begging for snow like I am in Oklahoma. I know if you get the good stuff then I surely should. BRING ON THE SNOW LOTS OF IT.

[cycloneye]

Well,CPC came out in the weekly update released every Monday with not so good news for those who like to see some snow and cooler temperatures in Texas. Go to the ENSO thread at TT to see the news.

[Ntxw]

Here is the latest comparison/verification for NOAA/Weather Channel November forecast. It is not yet the end of the month, but I do not see any drastic changes in the averages for the rest of this week.

NOAA below, Weather Channel to the right


This is how it turned out so far



As you can see, overall both did much better than their October outlooks. The southeast was the core of the cold anomalies and the high plains/divide was the warmest.

We'll check in again late December to see how the forecasts fared. Currently both show a very warm southern plains and a cool northern plains/northwest while the east coast has equal chances.

[Portastorm]

Well, with the Arctic Oscillation progged to tank soon, possibly to very low figures ... and a favorable MJO pulse on the way ... the online chatter on various sites suggests the last 10 days of December will be quite interesting!

But before we get there, we'll have to endure drier and warmer than normal. Ugh.

[Ntxw]

Well, with the Arctic Oscillation progged to tank soon, possibly to very low figures ... and a favorable MJO pulse on the way ... the online chatter on various sites suggests the last 10 days of December will be quite interesting!

It's already in the tank quite steep actually. Lets keep our fingers crossed it spills cold air over NA vs Eurasia! At least with such a dip, December AO has a better chance of being negative and less zonal flow. December AO values are crucial because it usually translates well into the rest of the DJF period. That has been true the past 3-5 years at least.

[cycloneye]

In other words, all is not lost to have a good winter in Texas despite the none cooperation from ENSO. Here is what JB says about December.

Joe Bastardi‏@BigJoeBastardi

Weatherbell forecast made Nov 22: 50% or more of the country covered with snow at least 1 of 5 days Dec 23-27. Would be 3rd time in 4 yrs.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: In other words, all is not lost to have a good winter in Texas despite the none cooperation from ENSO. Here is what JB says about December.

Neutral ENSO can be very cold as well, but it will depend on the AO and NAO. Here is the anomaly correlation for each regarding blocking.


La Nada is Neutral

However, rainfall is not so good in neutral years, especially the kind we are in.

[SoupBone]

Wxman hasn't posted on here in a few days. I guess he's busy building his severe winter weather bunker.

So far, I've enjoyed the cold blasts we've had and I hope they continue with regularity.

[orangeblood]

Here is an interesting CFSv2 forecast for snowfall leading up to Christmas...seems to back up what JB has been touting

[Portastorm]

Nice post, orangeblood. Pretty cool to see some Texas snow in half of those ensemble runs!

I'm seeing signs (and reading about signs) that suggest some real winter will impact Texas after the middle of the month.

[Big O]

Nice post, orangeblood. Pretty cool to see some Texas snow in half of those ensemble runs!

I'm seeing signs (and reading about signs) that suggest some real winter will impact Texas after the middle of the month.

Care to elaborate? You've piqued my interest?

Does it have to do with SSW, vortex split, -AO, -NAO? If so, my only concern is with the PNA; we need it to spike positive if we want the Pacific to cooperate. Thoughts?

[Portastorm]

Nice post, orangeblood. Pretty cool to see some Texas snow in half of those ensemble runs!

I'm seeing signs (and reading about signs) that suggest some real winter will impact Texas after the middle of the month.

Care to elaborate? You've piqued my interest?

Does it have to do with SSW, vortex split, -AO, -NAO? If so, my only concern is with the PNA; we need it to spike positive if we want the Pacific to cooperate. Thoughts?

Nah, not really. I just say stuff in the hopes that it might come true. What's that word again ... -removed-?

OK, seriously ... take a look at the end of the 0z GFS run and the 12z GFS run. You can see very late in the period, or what we call la-la land, that the air bottled up in Western Canada is starting to make a descent into the Plains. That is several runs in a row where we see this happening. Also, I have seen some speculation from much smarter meteorological minds than mine on other forums that the polar vortex appears to be splitting soon and that part of it will migrate to our side of the globe.

The suggestion from the GFS is that a positive PNA pattern may be developing with ridging off the West Coast poking up into Alaska and a major trough over the central US. That's a recipe for a cold air outbreak. There also seems to be chatter from some pro mets that the AO and NAO will be mainly negative throughout much of December.

Considering all of that, I'm somewhat confident that a pattern change will occur around mid month.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Well for those fellows who would love a snowfall here's a gift (and Lord knows we are building up a good snow pack so if we get El Nino your wish may just come true):

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9k5JnOSNMs[/youtube]

[Ntxw]

Nice post, orangeblood. Pretty cool to see some Texas snow in half of those ensemble runs!

I'm seeing signs (and reading about signs) that suggest some real winter will impact Texas after the middle of the month.

Care to elaborate? You've piqued my interest?

Does it have to do with SSW, vortex split, -AO, -NAO? If so, my only concern is with the PNA; we need it to spike positive if we want the Pacific to cooperate. Thoughts?

Portastorm probably thinks it's a combo of all that! We can't always assume it's one thing causing something, the weather works as a whole, it's combination! PNA is definitely troublesome but with some MJO help that can easily be fixed . Then again it may just be head of the PWC consuming too much alcohol

[Ntxw]

Since Portastorm mentioned it lets see how it looks/works! Stratosphere that is.

This is what it is now. (I'm going to use 30mb and 70mb since the warming will occur from the troposphere up)



Very cold up there and the vortex is fully intact, favors zonal flow over NA as all the cold is bundled up underneath it. Notice the patch of warmth in the far east, this is important.
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This is what is forecasted to happen within 7 days. Notice the warm spot grew into the Arctic through the Bering. That's the Aleutian ridging some have mentioned splitting the vortex. A chunk then slides into the Hudson bay, signal for a severely negative AO (already begun). The warming also is coming from the troposphere so a look little lower at 70mb (right), we see even more impressive warming.



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Another look at the heights. Explains the situation well. Verification for long range forecasts of the stratosphere is very good since there's little weather that actually goes on up there just winds and temps so don't worry too much on it being long range.



Here too notice on the right high pressure continues to bud into Alaska/Bering facing North America. This may be our best chance at a +PNA. And that (I believe) is one of the ways we can get a sudden stratospheric warming event.

[HockeyTx82]

I see wxman57 poking around. What are your thoughts on this mid December possible pattern change?