SPAC: 02F - Tropical Depression

[Meow]

East of the Solomon Islands.

[Meow]

It is already 02F before the NRL gives it 97P.

WWPS21 NFFN 182100
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 18/2321 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F CENTRE [1007HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 10.5S 170.0E
AT 182100 UTC. TD02F SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS.
CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM LIES
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS FROM SURFACE TO 750HPA.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR TD02F TO DEVEOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

[euro6208]

19/1130 UTC 10.2S 167.4E T1.0/1.0 97P -- Southwest Pacific

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5S 168.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 700 NM NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP BANDS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
AROUND AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT
190939Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED THE EASTERN PERIMETER OF THE LLCC AND
INDICATED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WERE BETWEEN 15
TO 20 KNOTS. A LARGE SWATH OF GRADIENT WINDS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
WAS ALSO PRESENT WITH WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AXIS, WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE FAVORABLE (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008
MB. BASED ON THE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDS, POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
FAVORABLE SSTS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[supercane4867]

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F
9:00 AM FST November 20 2012
====================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02F (1004 hPa) located at 10.4S 167.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral visible imagery and peripheral surface observation. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Organization has slightly improved in the last 24 hours. Convection remains persistent in the past 24 hours. The system lies under an upper level ridge with two outflow channels centered in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends from surface to 700 HPA. Global models have picked the system and move it south southeastward with slight intensification.

Potential for this disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW TO MODERATE.

[supercane4867]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPS21 PGTW 200230
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.6S 167.8E TO 15.6S 169.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 200200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.7S 167.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 210230Z.
//

[HurricaneBill]

If it forms, it will be named "Evan".

[supercane4867]

Appears like a well-formed depression, should get the upgrade soon

[supercane4867]

TCFA canceled




Very hostile wind shear with the trough to the southwest