WPAC: BOPHA - Remnants

[supercane4867]

1.1N 159.8E

Near the equator

[euro6208]

wide shot of the wpac...it looks really organized and if it develops might be strong...

[supercane4867]

The latitude seems a bit too low, it needs to be above 2.5°N for anything to develop

Otherwise, no enemies in sight

[euro6208]

The latitude seems a bit too low, it needs to be above 2.5°N for anything to develop

Otherwise, no enemies in sight

in our part of the world, tropical cyclones can develop very near the equator...the most famous, Vamei in 2001 developed into a tropical storm at 1.5 N is also the strongest ever on record (worldwide) so close to the equator when he peaked at 75 knots before slamming into singapore/malaysia...

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 230139
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1139 AM CHST FRI NOV 23 2012

PMZ172-173-174-231300-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-
1139 AM CHST FRI NOV 23 2012

...DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF KOSRAE AND SOUTH OF POHNPEI...

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS IN AN AREA FROM NEAR
CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EQUATOR. THIS AREA
INCLUDES THE MORTLOCKS ALONG WITH NUKUORO AND KAPINGAMARANGI ATOLLS.
SATELLITE WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES A CIRCULATION MAY BE CENTERED NEAR
2N160E AND IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

VERY SHOWERY WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND CHOPPY SEAS
OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. TRAVEL
BY SMALL BOATS COULD BE HAZARDOUS AT TIMES BETWEEN SOUTHERN ISLANDS
AND ATOLLS OF CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES.

RESIDENTS OF CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES SHOULD STAY ALERT AND
MONITOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. REFER TO COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR LATEST WEATHER AND SEA CONDITIONS.

$$

SIMPSON

[Meow]

in our part of the world, tropical cyclones can develop very near the equator...the most famous, Vamei in 2001 developed into a tropical storm at 1.5 N is also the strongest ever on record (worldwide) so close to the equator when he peaked at 75 knots before slamming into singapore/malaysia...

Vamei developed due to strong northeastern monsoon, but 90W does not have this situation.

Vamei is a kind of birds.

[Meow]

An equatorial disturbance.



ABPW10 PGTW 230800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/230800Z-240600ZNOV2012//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 1.2N 159.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 350 NM SOUTH OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
FLARING AROUND AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
RECENT 230048Z OSCAT PASS CONFIRMS THE ELONGATED LLCC, WITH 20 KNOT
GRADIENT WINDS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, WITH LIGHTER 10
TO 15 KNOT WINDS DIRECTLY NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS,
PROVIDING FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE AND CREATING NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW. A
230718Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A DIFFUSE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION BOTH TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM, WITH NO CLEARLY DISCERNABLE LLCC. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. BASED ON CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION, FAVORABLE OUTFLOW, WARM
SSTS BUT A POORLY DEFINED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

[supercane4867]

Latitude keeps rising, now at 1.4°N

90WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-14N-1595E.

Strong vorticity associated with 90W

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 231319
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1119 PM CHST FRI NOV 23 2012

PMZ172-173-174-240200-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-
1119 PM CHST FRI NOV 23 2012

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE PERSISTING SOUTH OF POHNPEI...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 1N159E...ABOUT
280 MILES EAST OF KAPINGAMARANGI IN POHNPEI STATE. IR SATELLITE
TREND CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION FLARING UP
NEAR THIS DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF CHUUK...POHNPEI AND NEAR KOSRAE
ISLANDS. THIS AREA INCLUDES

ETAL...SATAWAN...LUKUNOR IN CHUUK STATE
SAPWUAFIK...NGATIK...NUKUORO...KAPINGAMARAMGI IN POHNPEI STATE
AND KOSRAE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. UP TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN
SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED. CHOPPY SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET COULD
CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY SMALL BOATS
ACROSS THIS REGION.

RESIDENTS OF CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES SHOULD STAY ALERT AND
MONITOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND SEA CONDITIONS.

$$

CHAN

[supercane4867]

Poorly defined LLCC


The center had re-established at even farther south

90WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-7N-1573E

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 240024
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1024 AM CHST SAT NOV 24 2012

PMZ172-173-174-241300-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-
1024 AM CHST SAT NOV 24 2012

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STILL BREWING SOUTH OF POHNPEI...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AT 1N159E...ABOUT
280 MILES EAST OF KAPINGAMARANGI IN POHNPEI STATE. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THIS DISTURBANCE TO THE
SOUTH OF POHNPEI. THIS AREA OF CONCERN INCLUDES

ETAL...SATAWAN...LUKUNOR IN CHUUK STATE
SAPWUAFIK...NGATIK...NUKUORO...KAPINGAMARANGI IN POHNPEI STATE
AND KOSRAE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 200 TO 300 MILES OF THE DISTURBANCE
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY. CHOPPY
SEAS OF 5 TO 7 FEET WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL BY SMALL BOATS ACROSS THIS REGION.

RESIDENTS OF CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES SHOULD STAY ALERT AND
MONITOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND SEA CONDITIONS.

$$

SIMPSON

[euro6208]

so far it has been very persistent...and it's convective organization has improved...

[euro6208]

000
WWPQ80 PGUM 241225
SPSPQ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1025 PM CHST SAT NOV 24 2012

PMZ172-173-174-250200-
CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-
1025 PM CHST SAT NOV 24 2012

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LINGERS SOUTH OF POHNPEI...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 1N159E...ABOUT
280 MILES EAST OF KAPINGAMARANGI IN POHNPEI STATE. LATEST IR
SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE FLARING UP JUST SOUTH OF POHNPEI...
KOSRAE AND SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. THIS CONVECTION COVERS

ETAL...SATAWAN...LUKUNOR IN CHUUK STATE
SAPWUAFIK...NGATIK...NUKUORO...KAPINGAMARANGI IN POHNPEI STATE
AND KOSRAE WATERS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEAR THE ABOVE LOCATIONS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY. CHOPPY SEAS OF 5
TO 7 FEET WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL BY
SMALL BOATS ACROSS THIS REGION.

RESIDENTS OF CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES SHOULD STAY ALERT AND
MONITOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO COASTAL WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND SEA CONDITIONS.

$$

CHAN

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 1.2N 159.0E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 0.7N 157.3E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH OF
POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA
OF FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE PERSISTED MOSTLY NORTH OF AN
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A
240332Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, PROVIDING FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB.
BASED ON CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION, FAVORABLE OUTFLOW, BUT A POORLY
DEFINED LLCC AND A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.

Relocated to 0.7!

[Hurricanehink]

Given the very low latitude, this could break Vamei's record for the southernmost formation in the WPAC at 1.4ºN. The next lowest storm was Typhoon Sarah in 1956, which formed at 2.4ºN. Both stats based on the best track from the Japan Meteorological Agency. Definitely a storm to keep an eye on.

[supercane4867]

Strongest winds are located at the south of equator


The ridge over The Philippines is impeding the system from moving north, but it's forecasted to weaken

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 0.7N
157.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 2.5N 159.0E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRONG
MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. A 241436Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO STRONG LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE BUT WEAK OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE; HOWEVER, A
241119Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A DEVELOPING, ELONGATED SURFACE
CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT DATA SHOW
EXTENSIVE CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW INTO THE LLCC AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE
(20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH A POINT SOURCE NEAR THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE AGGRESSIVE
MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND THE STRONG MID-LEVEL DEVELOPMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Hurricanehink]

With its reformation, any record latitude formation is now impossible, unless it goes back south again.

[supercane4867]

GFS showing a Nida-like track, will It end up with the same intensity?

[dexterlabio]

^That would be interesting! I want this season to end with a bang.