SIO: BOLDWIN - Post-Tropical

[supercane4867]

6.0S 90.9E

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.0S 90.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 1100 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LLCC WITH DEEP
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTH IN AN AREA OF STRONG CONVERGENT
FLOW. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 161547Z DEPICTS A 15-20 KNOT WIND
FIELD TO THE SOUTH AND ONLY 5-10 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS
LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE STR AXIS UNDER WEAK (05-10 KNOT) VWS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS AT 26-
28 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[supercane4867]

Not much left

[euro6208]

23/1130 UTC 12.0S 77.7E T2.0/2.0 96S -- Southwest Indian

[Meow]

Tropical Disturbance 3

WTIO30 FMEE 231807
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/3/20122013
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 3
2.A POSITION 2012/11/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3 S / 77.5 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL
FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/11/24 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/11/24 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 74.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/11/25 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/11/25 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 73.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/11/26 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 71.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/11/26 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 69.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/11/27 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 66.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
120H: 2012/11/28 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 67.4 E, MAX WIND=015 KT,
DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0+ AND CI=2.0+
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTRE SINCE EARLY
TODAY AND SHOWS A SMALL CURVED BAND IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE SINCE
1000Z TODAY.
AS EXPECTED SINCE SEVERAL DAYS (REFER TO AWIO20 - BULLETINS FOR
CYCLONIC ACTIVITY ISSUED BY RSMC LA REUNION), ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ALOFT THE CIRCULATION. WINDSHEAR HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
RELAXED AND UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
IS RATHER GOOD MAINLY POLEWARD.
IN LOW LEVELS, EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS LIMITED IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE
CONVERGENCE AREA EXISTING IN THE NORTH FROM EQUATOR TO 05S AND LOW
LEVEL VORTICITY IS MAINLY SUSTAINED BY TRADE WINDS INFLOW SOUTHWARD.
THIS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER A GLOBALLY SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK. SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN REACH TROPICAL STORM STAGE WITHIN THIS SCHEDULE.
LATE SUNDAY, NORTHERLY THEN NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO
PROGRESSIVELY FILL IN AND TO TRACK WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
ON AND AFTER TUESDAY, THE EXPECTED RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD TRACK TOWARDS
A POLAR TROUGH TRANSITING IN ITS SOUTH AND DISSIPATE INSIDE WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY.=

[supercane4867]

23/1800 UTC 12.4S 77.2E T2.5/2.5 96S -- Southwest Indian

[supercane4867]

TCFA just came out, still waiting for text message


With the eyewall forming, It must be a TS already

[euro6208]

WTXS21 PGTW 240230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4S 77.0E TO 14.2S 72.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
240200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8S
76.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0S
77.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 76.4E, APPROXIMATELY 405 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING
INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 232203Z SSMI IMAGE INDICATES THAT
THE LLCC HAS BECOME MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
DUE TO DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS CURRENTLY AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED
UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY
THE STRONG WESTERLIES LOCATED TO THE SOUTH. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 250230Z.//
NNNN

[Meow]

Tropical Depression 3 may get its own name today.


WTIO30 FMEE 240023
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/3/20122013
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3
2.A POSITION 2012/11/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 77.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/11/24 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 75.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/11/25 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/11/25 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 72.8 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/11/26 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 71.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/11/26 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 70.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/11/27 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 68.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/11/28 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 66.6 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
120H: 2012/11/29 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 65.1 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=2.5 AND CI=2.5
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY KEEPS ON CONSOLIDATING AND SHOWS NOW A CURVED BAND WRAPPING FIVE TENS AROUND T
HE CENTRE.
AS EXPECTED SINCE SEVERAL DAYS (REFER TO AWIO20 - BULLETINS FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY ISSUED BY RSMC L
A REUNION), ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE ALOFT THE CIRCULATION. WINDSHEAR HAS SIGNIFICANTLY RE
LAXED AND UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS RATHER GOOD MAINLY POLEWARD.
IN LOW LEVELS, EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS LIMITED IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE CONVERGENCE AREA EXISTING IN
ITS NORTH FROM 04S TO 09S AND LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS MAINLY SUSTAINED SOUTHWARD BY TRADE WINDS IN
FLOW .
THIS RATHER FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON O
VER A GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE WITHIN THIS SCHEDULE (SST AT ABOUT 27 TO 29 DEGREES), SYST
EM SHOULD THEN REACH TROPICAL STORM STAGE.
LATE SUNDAY, NORTHERLY THEN NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND SYSTEM
IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN.
ON AND AFTER TUESDAY, UNDER THE UNFAVOURABLE WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT AND OVER COOLER OCEAN, THE SYSTE
M IS EXPECTED TO REGULARLY FILL IN.
THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD TRACK TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH TRANSITING IN ITS SOUTH AND MERGE WITH IT ON
THURSDAY.

[supercane4867]

Unnamed 96S T3.0/3.0 24/0530Z Southwest Indian

[supercane4867]

The JTWC upgraded it to a 45kt TS

[P.K.]

This is now Moderate Tropical Storm Boldwin. At 06Z winds up to 45kts.

Interestingly there were advisories issued on this a week ago as 02R but they renumbered it to 03R when they resumed advisories yesterday.

[Meow]

This is now Moderate Tropical Storm Boldwin. At 06Z winds up to 45kts.

Interestingly there were advisories issued on this a week ago as 02R but they renumbered it to 03R when they resumed advisories yesterday.

You forgot there was Tropical Disturbance 2 before.

[Meow]

Very quick... Now Boldwin is a severe tropical storm.

WTIO30 FMEE 241241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/3/20122013
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 3 (BOLDWIN)
2.A POSITION 2012/11/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 75.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 2.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :22 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 180 SW: 120 NW: 65
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 110 SW: 80 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/11/25 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 74.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/11/25 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 73.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/11/26 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 71.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/11/26 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 70.8 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/11/27 00 UTC: 15.4 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2012/11/27 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 67.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/11/28 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 66.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
120H: 2012/11/29 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 64.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=4.0- AND CI=4.0-
BOLDWIN HAS SHOWN A RAGGED EYE PATTERN DURING MOST OF THE DAY ON VIS IMAGERY. THE EYE WAS MORE INT
ERMITTENT ON EIR IMAGERY (BEST DEFINITION AT MIDDAY)
AVAILABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 1130Z GIVE AN INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KT (SAB AND PGTW AT 3.5). HOWE
VER, A 3HR MEAN OF MANUAL T-NUM IS NEAR 4.0. MOREOVER, A 1039Z SSMI PASS DEPICTS A STRONG MID LEVE
L 20 NM DIAMETER EYE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH A CONTRACTING EYE. FINALLY, INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMA
TE IS RAISED AT 55 KT.
THE SYSTEM IS COMPACT AND ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURE ARE AROUND 1010 HPA. CONSEQUENTLY, MSLP IS HIGHER
THAN USUAL FOR A SYSTEM OF THAT STRENGTH.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GOOD ALOFT THE CIRCULATION. THE WINDSHEAR IS WEAK UNDER THE UPPER LEV
EL RIDGE AXIS (LESS THAN 10 KT ACCORDING TO 09Z CIMSS ANALYSIS). HOWEVER A CIRRUS ARC IS DETECTED
SINCE 10Z OVER THE NORTHNORTHEASTERN OUTER CIRCULATION, SUGGESTING THAT A SOME SHEAR MAY STILL EXI
ST. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS RATHER GOOD MAINLY POLEWARD. SST (IN THE 27-28C RANGE) AND OCEANIC H
EAT CONTAIN ARE ALSO FAVOURABLE FOR SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.THIS RATHER FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVAILABLE NWP GUIDANCE STRUGGLE TO PROPERLY HANDLE THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SMALL SYSTE
M. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS ON THE PATH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS INTENSITY
FORECAST REMAINS LOWER THAN USUAL.
LATE SUNDAY, NORTHERLY THEN NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND SYSTEM
IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK TOWARDS A POLAR TROUGH TRANSITING IN ITS SOUTH. AN
INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COULD MAINTAIN INTENSITY SEEMS POSSIBLE ACCORDING TO
NWP FIELDS. THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ... IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MOST OF THE ECMWF ENSEMB
LE MEMBERS DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM AS SOON AS TUESDAY ...

[P.K.]

You forgot there was Tropical Disturbance 2 before.

Ah yes you are right. I thought the area that was TD 2 was 96S as well but it looks like it was actually 95S. This is why I stick to the official RSMC numbers.

[supercane4867]

[supercane4867]

Boldwin appears to had peaked

[supercane4867]

Weakening

[supercane4867]

Final Warning

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BOLDWIN) WARNING NR 004
WTXS31 PGTW 252100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BOLDWIN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 15.2S 71.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 71.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 15.3S 70.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 71.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BOLDWIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICT A FULLY-EXPOSED, RAPIDLY-WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A 251545Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES A POORLY-
DEFINED LLCC WITH AN ISOLATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR 15S
76E. A 250728Z OCEANSAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWED ONLY 20 TO 25 KNOTS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ADDITIONALLY, DVORAK FINAL-T INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE WEAK LLCC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE FINAL-T
ESTIMATES BASED ON THE HIGHER DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
TC 02S IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 12.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 17 FEET.//
BT