WPAC: BOPHA - Remnants

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTPN21 PGTW 251700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 3.0N 158.2E TO 4.5N 155.0E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 251630Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 3.1N 157.8E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.6N
158.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.1N 157.8E, APPROXIMATELY 220 NM SOUTH
OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 251424Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF AN ELONGATED LLCC. A 251058Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, INDICATIVE OF THE
RECENT CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE, WHICH IS
PROVIDING AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND IS NOW WEAK (10 TO 15
KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
261700Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

we are definitely anxious here in guam and micronesia!

[supercane4867]

While ECMWF shows a more southerly track toward Mindanao, The GFS has been very consistent in taking it well out to sea

[cycloneye]

The 12z Euro is more north than past runs when it approaches the Phillippines.

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Tropical Depression

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/a.html

TD
Issued at 19:20 UTC, 25 November 2012
<Analyses at 25/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N3°25'(3.4°)
E156°55'(156.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 26/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N3°35'(3.6°)
E155°05'(155.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[cycloneye]

Wow,the upgrades have been fast today. First the TCFA,then JMA and now JTWC as NRL changed to 26W.

[supercane4867]

Tropical Depression 26W

[cycloneye]

JTWC first warning:

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251651NOV2012//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTY-SIX) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 3.6N 157.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 3.6N 157.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 4.2N 156.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 4.7N 155.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 5.1N 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 5.5N 152.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 6.3N 149.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 7.4N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 8.5N 139.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 3.7N 156.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 251651Z NOV 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 251700). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z,
261500Z AND 262100Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Here is the Prognostic Reasoning from JTWC for TD 26W.

WDPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 251925Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING; HOWEVER, THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS
FRAGMENTED AND THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN.
THEREFORE, THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON THIS STRUCTURE AS
WELL AS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED
SIGNIFICANTLY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE LLCC
WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 26W
APPEARS TO BE TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR), WHICH IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED SOUTH OF JAPAN.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 26W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE WEAK STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STR BUT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS
IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND TRACKS WESTWARD UNDER THE
STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED TO NOGAPS, GFS AND WBAR,
WHICH ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF, GFDN,
EGRR AND JGSM TRACKERS ALL POORLY INITIALIZE THE CURRENT INTENSITY
OF THE SYSTEM AND WERE UNAVAILABLE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AND THE LACK OF DYNAMIC AIDS, THE DYNAMIC MODELS AND
ANALYSES ARE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A STRONG STR AND SIMILAR
SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN, THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM WILL BE A STRAIGHT-
RUNNER. TD 26W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE
LLCC CONSOLIDATES BUT IS EXPECTED TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU
72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 26W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD YAP AND WILL INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS TO A PEAK NEAR 90 KNOTS BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC
AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT THE JTWC FORECAST, WHICH IS
POSITIONED FASTER BUT CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[supercane4867]

The first warning put the intensity up to 90kts by 120HR and unpeaked, this could become something major

[euro6208]

26th tropical cyclone of the season and forecast to become a strong typhoon...not looking good...from guam to the philippines, look out!

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 252218
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
800 AM CHST MON NOV 26 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W FORMS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NUKUORO IN POHNPEI STATE
AND LUKUNOR IN CHUUK STATE.

AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 3.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.8 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI
235 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUKUNOR
125 MILES EAST OF NUKUORO.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...3.7 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
156.8 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 11 AM CHST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT
2 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE




000
WTPQ81 PGUM 252334 CCA
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED...TECHNICAL CORRECTION
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
900 AM CHST MON NOV 26 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W HAS FORMED SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR
PEOPLE IN NUKUORO ATOLL IN POHNPEI STATE...AND LUKUNOR AND ITS
SURROUNDING ATOLLS IN CHUUK STATE. THE ISLAND OF NGATIK IS IN THIS
AREA OF CONCERN.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NUKUORO ATOLL IN POHNPEI
STATE AND LUKUNOR ATOLL IN CHUUK STATE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48
HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 3.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.8 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF NUKUORO
160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK)
235 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUKUNOR
240 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI AND
425 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WILL
SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. TD 26W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TUESDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NUKUORO AND LUKUNOR AND THE SOUTHERN
MORTLOCK ISLANDS...WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AND SURF WILL BE BECOME DANGEROUSLY HIGH ALONG
WINDWARD COASTS. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE VERY STRONG AND POTENTIALLY
DEADLY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT OR SECURED. INTER-ISLAND
TRAVEL OUTSIDE CHUUK LAGOON SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE RANGE OF 30 TO 50
MPH WITHIN 100 MILES OF TD 26W DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST. WAVES GENERATED BY TD 26W MAY
EVENTUALLY CAUSE SURF TO BUILD ALONG SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SHORES FOR
ALL THE ISLANDS OF POHNPEI AND CHUUK STATES.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
WAVES GENERATED BY TD 26W WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FEET AND MAY CAUSE
SURF TO BUILD ALONG SOUTHERN SHORES FOR ALL THE ISLANDS OF POHNPEI
AND CHUUK STATES. THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY HIGH
TIDES DUE TO THE FULL MOON AND INUNDATION PROBLEMS COULD DEVELOP IN
THE COMING DAYS AS 26W INTENSIFIES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER LARGE PARTS OF SOUTHERN POHNPEI
AND CHUUK STATES IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 3 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

SIMPSON/GUARD

[cycloneye]

JMA 2nd warning mantains as TD. When is upgraded,the next name by JMA is Bopha.

TD
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 26 November 2012
<Analyses at 26/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N3°35'(3.6°)
E156°55'(156.9°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1008hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 27/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N3°55'(3.9°)
E155°05'(155.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[supercane4867]

ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 NOV 2012 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 3:52:43 N Lon : 156:36:27 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.8 /1006.0mb/ 28.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.8 2.1 2.6

Center Temp : -17.8C Cloud Region Temp : -27.3C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.38 ARC in MD GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.48 ARC in MD GRAY
at Lat: 4:40:12 N Lon: 155:48:00 E

[cycloneye]

It will be a slow consolidation process by the looks of the OSCAT.

[cycloneye]

JTWC warning #2 at 0300z: euro6208,Guam is at the edge of cone.

WTPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTY-SIX) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 4.2N 156.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 4.2N 156.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 4.7N 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 5.2N 154.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 5.6N 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 6.0N 151.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 6.7N 148.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 7.7N 144.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 8.9N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 4.3N 156.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 260000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z,
262100Z AND 270300Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 260303
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
200 PM CHST MON NOV 26 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NUKUORO IN POHNPEI
STATE AND LUKUNOR IN CHUUK STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR LOSAP AND FOR CHUUK (LAGOON) IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS WHILE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.4 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF NUKUORO
130 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAPWUAFIK (NGATIK)
190 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LUKUNOR
220 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI
310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOSAP
380 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH.
THIS GENERAL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...4.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 156.4
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE MOVING NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 PM CHST THIS EVENING.

$$

SIMPSON

[supercane4867]

wind shear is decreasing rapidly!

[apocalypt-flyer]

Ugh, that's quite bullish for the JTWC. Definitely one to keep an eye or two on.

[mrbagyo]

its now a question of timing. will the frontal system come in time to save the Philippine island or another scenario of NINA or DURIAN