Texas Fall 2012

[Ntxw]

Fun tidbit of the day: AO is due to fall, and a possible sudden stratospheric warming event could take place.



As for precipitation, still little in sight of rain.

[Shoshana]

Looking at the long-range, I can pretty much gamble money on that we will have the big goose-egg for precip at our house for November. I cannot remember EVER having a dry November without a drop of rain To prove it I looked at the Lavon Dam Climatology records back to 1950. November 1950 had .06" so it looks like we are less than that.

Nothing at my house either, or the Camp Mabry or Austin-Bergstrom weather stations either so far in the month of November. The fact that we have not received enough rain in November to even measure a TRACE, is truly unbelievable, and a little concerning IMO!

Actually, according to KVUE's Mark Murray, we're now in the longest stretch of consecutive days without any rainfall for the year!

KXAN just said that the last time we has zero rain in Austin in November was ... 1897.

[horselattitudesfarm]

I have to keep going back and watching that Dust Bowl special that aired on PBS to make myself feel better about our weather now. At least we aren't dying of dust pneumonia.

[Rgv20]

How much rain did you get yesterday? Looks like a great soaking, which is something we aren't seeing here in Houston. We are quickly heading back into moderate drought with no end in sight.

I got just a little over an inch in my backyard

[horselattitudesfarm]

Here is some information showing the probabilities of ENSO conditions through next summer


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

As you can see, probabilities for neutral conditions are highest with the likelihood of EL Nino dropping and La Nina rising by next summer.

[iorange55]

A couple of months ago I was excited for this winter, but now I am starting to feel like we might be getting two bad winters in a row.

09/10 spoiled me so much.

[Ntxw]

As you can see, probabilities for neutral conditions are highest with the likelihood of EL Nino dropping and La Nina rising by next summer.

This is not unusual for the Cold PDO. You just don't get back to back warm ENSO events with the negative phase. It's quite possible we might get another strong Nina by next fall. And yet a residual weak Nina/cold neutral the year after.

A couple of months ago I was excited for this winter, but now I am starting to feel like we might be getting two bad winters in a row.

09/10 spoiled me so much.

It's only November jesus . I can't promise a good/great winter but I can assure you it is nothing like last year, not even close. We had ZERO high latitude blocking last winter at all anywhere. The +AO arctic vortex was stationary in 2011/12, it's likely to split soon and head south making a new home. It has been constantly blocky this year so far, just a matter of time to get it set into the right places for our neck of the woods.

It does appear a sudden stratospheric warming event is taking shape.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/s ... strat_a_f/

[Portastorm]

No kidding, Ntxw! Y'all need to relax.

You'll see some "winter" and it will be better than last year, although that's not saying much. Now in terms of precip that's a different story. There are some hints that warming is still occuring just under the surface in the western ENSO regions and while "neutral" is still likely this winter, it wouldn't surprise me to see a weak Nino still pop up for later in winter.

OK everyone ... put the sharp objects away and back away from the ledge. It's gonna be O-K.

[Dallasaggie01]

"It does appear a sudden stratospheric warming event is taking shape.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/s ... strat_a_f/"

Can you explain this more? I'm reading this that this will increase chances for more niño like conditions, is that right?

[Ntxw]

"It does appear a sudden stratospheric warming event is taking shape.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/s ... strat_a_f/"

Can you explain this more? I'm reading this that this will increase chances for more niño like conditions, is that right?

It means that the model's forecast for a -AO for December and beyond is much more believable. A -AO is one of the indicators for cold outbreaks as mentioned in a previous post, hope that helps

[horselattitudesfarm]

Here is some data from Gary Mcmanus out of Oklahoma. We here in North Texas are in the same boat essentially climate-wise so I thought I'd include it in our discussion, especially since most of our weather has to come out of Oklahoma to get here.

"MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ... MESONET TICKER ...
November 20, 2012 November 20, 2012 November 20, 2012 November 20, 2012


Would the real October-November, please stand up

This drought and its statistics continue to trouble me. Here's the deal ... the October-November 2010 period was what got this whole shebang started, and we ended up with our second driest water year (Oct. 1, 2010-Sept. 30, 2011) on record with a statewide average of 20.4" (1956 is still the driest at 18.7").

But that October-November period back in 2010 was extremely dry, and the deficits just continued to mount through spring and summer. In comparison, the October-November period from last year saw the beginning of significant relief as we went through March 2012. Now this year, we're back to a 2010-style dry period that is seeing drought intensify once again. Let's take a look at the last three October-November periods (for 2012, Oct. 1-Nov. 20) and see how they compare.

-****-
Year Statewide Avg. Departure Rank since 1895
2010 3.65" -2.5" 35th driest
2011 7.21" 0.9" 26th wettest
2012 1.66" -3.6" (within top 10 driest)
-***-

This October-November period thus far is more than twice as dry as the same period during 2010 that started this whole mess off. Here are the three similar periods in graphical form.

October-November 2010
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20121 ... 0-tots.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20121 ... 10-pct.png

October-November 2011
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20121 ... 1-tots.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20121 ... 11-pct.png

October-Nov. 20, 2012
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20121 ... 2-tots.png
http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20121 ... 12-pct.png

Heck, 2010's October-November would be AWESOME right now, comparatively.

There's still not a lot of moisture showing up just yet. The 5-day has some green painted over Oklahoma, but nothing significant at this time.

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20121 ... y-rain.gif

From the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS), the chances of our area receiving at inch of accumulated precipitation over the next 15 days are not bad in eastern Oklahoma, but not too good across the western half of the state. This is for today through December 5. Remember, these are the probabilities of receiving an inch of accumulated precipitation.

http://ticker.mesonet.org/archive/20121 ... -15day.gif

Not a great start to the 2012-13 water year, but nothing has been normal around these parts the last few years. So continue to expect the unexpected. "

Gary McManus
Associate State Climatologist
Oklahoma Climatological Survey
(405) 325-2253

[vbhoutex]

No kidding, Ntxw! Y'all need to relax.

You'll see some "winter" and it will be better than last year, although that's not saying much. Now in terms of precip that's a different story. There are some hints that warming is still occuring just under the surface in the western ENSO regions and while "neutral" is still likely this winter, it wouldn't surprise me to see a weak Nino still pop up for later in winter.

OK everyone ... put the sharp objects away and back away from the ledge. It's gonna be O-K.

Keep telling me that. Maybe I will start to listen/believe. Even with some indications of a possible low end Nino event later in the Winter I am not convinced we are going to get precipitation or cold temperatures of any duration this Winter.

[cycloneye]

I am afraid ENSO will not cooperate for Texas to have a good winter. Go to the ENSO thread at TT and see what I mean.

[vbhoutex]

I am afraid ENSO will not cooperate for Texas to have a good winter. Go to the ENSO thread at TT and see what I mean.

That is why I posted what I did. I went to the ENSO thread first.

[Portastorm]

Meh ... we'll see. I'm not ready to jump off the cliff like some are around here. Let's see come March 2013 how the precip ended up for the southern Plains/Texas.

[weatherdude1108]

Well, in the short term, wonder if we'll have any rain tonight(?). 40% chance. I was mowing the yard this past weekend, and noticed the soil in parts of my backyard has turned to hard pan with some cracks. NOT GOOD for what should be the second wettest time of the year. I'm usually getting muddy. Not usually switching between heat and AC because it is approaching low 80s. Hmmm. My soaker hose is ready to water the foundation if needed. A silver lining is the foundation companies are making a killing in and around Austin from the 2011 drought.


HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
454 AM CST MON NOV 26 2012

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-271100-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
454 AM CST MON NOV 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THE COLD FRONT AND AFTERNOON HEATING.
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG
WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

This Afternoon Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. South southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. West northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north 10 to 15 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.

[cycloneye]

Ntxw, do you think there will be a teleconnection from what may be left of soon to be Typhoon BOPHA at WPAC to send precipitation to Texas?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Based on the Nino chart with past historical ONI values, anyone else think this could be like 2006-07? Remember that winter was very warm in the first half, then was EXTREMELY cold the second half of winter. It started in January basically and we had some form of winter precip in East Texas where i was going to school three different times.


Any thoughts on this initial theory? Dont remember all of the details or the mechanics of that winter but JB called it in early Jan saying the Spring would be very very cold. It became one of those moments where started following JB much closer since he was spot on with that call.

[weatherdude1108]

Seems like it to my novice self. 2003 seems similar also -- maybe?

[Portastorm]

Keep your fingers crossed weatherdude ... I see a decent blob of showers/storms several counties west of Austin on the 4 pm radar out of EWX, moving eastbound.