Storm Tracks Of The 2000's

[Blown Away]

Storm tracks from 2000-2005


Storm tracks from 2006-2011

Noticeable shift in intensity/track pattern with storms in recent years.

[SFLcane]

Looks like a trend towards tracks out to sea there from my view.

[cycloneye]

Also less Caribbean Cruisers between 06-11.

[MiamiensisWx]

Interestingly, similar shifts--eastward tracks, weaker intensities--were also noted during the shift from +AMO (1926-1969) to -AMO (1970-1994), so we could be entering the start of an inactive cycle. SAL is up and precipitation is down over the Atlantic due to increased stability since 2005. Increased stability could also be related to other factors besides the AMO and ENSO, such as the global atmospheric circulation. Similar variations have occurred in the past as the 1910s and 1970s had fewer landfalls and weaker systems than in other, more active decades. Everything swings on this planet. That is why I do not venture to make seasonal forecasts.

Interesting comparison:

1941-1945: Most hurricanes recurved very close to the East Coast or made landfall north of FL
1946-1949: Tracks shifted farther east; landfalls still common, shifted to FL
1950-1954: Tracks shifted even farther east; landfalls shifted to Carolinas or New England
1955-1959: Almost no landfalls; few landfalls like Audrey were in the Gulf of Mexico
1960-1964: Mainly Gulf-centric; most other tracks fishy
1965-1969: Mainly Gulf-centric; most other tracks fishy
1970s: Fishy tracks

[brunota2003]

Is it possible that the hyper activity of 2005 tripped the "circuit breaker" and maybe started the switch toward a period of inactivity? Obviously, things like that would take time.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Is it possible that the hyper activity of 2005 tripped the "circuit breaker" and maybe started the switch toward a period of inactivity? Obviously, things like that would take time.

It's possible, but I severely doubt it. The main reason the United States has been so fortunate when it comes to intense hurricane landfalls, or any landfalls at all for that matter, is due to persistent troughing across the Northeast. That troughing has not been there all fall and is one of the main reasons Sandy was able to strike the coast. Let us hope it returns or I think we'll see trouble by the start of this upcoming hurricane season.

As for intensity, the storms have trended weaker because of a notable decrease in vertical instability for the past three years when compared to previous years. Why this has occurred is beyond me.