Texas Winter 2012-2013

[wxman57]

I see wxman57 poking around. What are your thoughts on this mid December possible pattern change?

I'm completely against any change to cooler weather...

My coworker and admitted cold-mongerer has been talking of a pattern change around the second week of December. I can see the 12Z GFS indicating a more stormy pattern (and cold) down south. Hope it's wrong.

[Ntxw]

Here is an interesting CFSv2 forecast for snowfall leading up to Christmas...seems to back up what JB has been touting

I just saw his blog on it. One of the runs had like a foot of snow all the way down to the gulf coast How fun would that be? Of course probably fantasy. But I do like the more snow cover idea next month in the continental US.

[orangeblood]

To illustrate what Ntxw is talking about... I'm sure wxman57 will love one of these ensemble runs in the 15-25 day range (Dec 12-22). Santa would be right in his element as he's traveling the rooftops of Houston

[richtrav]

I'm completely against any change to cooler weather...

Me too, we deserve another 3 or 4 more mild winters after having to put up with the nuisances of 2010 and 2011. Let the snow go to New Mexico where it belongs, I was hoping to get a ski trip in before Christmas

[Portastorm]

I'm completely against any change to cooler weather...

Me too, we deserve another 3 or 4 more mild winters after having to put up with the nuisances of 2010 and 2011. Let the snow go to New Mexico where it belongs, I was hoping to get a ski trip in before Christmas

You two deserve each other!

Heat Misers ... sheesh.

[orangeblood]

We need that PNA to pop positive before we start getting too excited about any prospects of winter weather around here....that pesky Gulf of Alaska trough needs to move elsewhere!!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

To whet your appetite......now if you really want our cold you had better pray Mother Nature comes on board.

It's official: Regina, Saskatchewan, saw record snowfall in November
Most of the city's snowfall this month came in two large events. Courtesy: David Dunster


Staff writers

November 27, 2012 — The city of Regina saw about half its total average amount of winter snow fall in just the month of November.


With a little under a month to go before the "official" start of winter, the city of Regina, Saskatchewan, has already broken records for its snowiest November.

At a few days shy of December, the city has received between 55 and 70 cm of snow for the entire month of November, depending on the location.

That's more than the 1941 November record of 53 cm. The historical average for November is around 14 cm.

"It's roughly half of what Regina gets the whole winter," Weather Network meteorologist Mark Robinson says.

"What's unusual is, most of it hit in two big storms, two extreme events."

Robinson says that's in contrast to the more historical trend of a steady build-up, making the snowfall harder to predict.

He said increasing frequency of extreme seasonal events, such as some of the winter-like storms that have hit the Prairie Provinces this year, are characteristic about what some scientists expect of climate change.




Frigid temperatures and snow to blast Alberta
Snow and frigid temperatures making it feel like winter in the Prairies

Staff writers

November 28, 2012 — There's still several weeks left until the official start to winter, but try telling that to residents in Alberta. Another snow storm is set to bring over 10 cm of snow to the province.

Frigid temperatures and heavy snow will make for a wintery couple of days across Alberta.

A deep Arctic ridge that's sinking south will bring below normal temperatures to much of the province on Wednesday.

Residents are urged to dress appropriately as windchills could reach near -40 in the High Level region. That means dressing in layers, covering your hands, ears and other extremities, and wearing proper footwear to prevent falls when walking in snow and ice.

Officials say it takes less than 10 minutes to get frostbite when your skin is exposed at these extreme windchill values.


Heavy snow could also make for a tricky commute in central Alberta through Thursday.

Between 10-20 cm of snow is expected in the hardest hit areas, including the city of Edmonton, where a snowfall warning has been issued.

Motorists are urged to adjust their driving habits as visibility is reduced and road conditions deteriorate.

Wondering what the winter season will be like in your area this year? Check The Weather Network's 2012/2013 Winter Outlook.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Now should I start up my fans so that you get all of the above????

[~FlipFlopGirl~]

I am sick of the 70 and 80's - its time to turn off the AC unit for good- And have not seen a drop of rain in Waco since who knows how long- I can't get into the Christmas Spirit- when its 79F- I am content with one snow day- and then good for the year-

[vbhoutex]

Now should I start up my fans so that you get all of the above????

Get those fans spinning!!! We would like to know what "real" Winter is like.

[Ntxw]

The AO continues it's trek down. This is modeled well and probably why we've seen the global models go for a continental trough later in their runs, also is consistent with the displacement of the PV at the upper levels.

[Patriot12]

The AO continues it's trek down. This is modeled well and probably why we've seen the global models go for a continental trough later in their runs, also is consistent with the displacement of the PV at the upper levels.

Translation please?

[SoupBone]

I see wxman57 poking around. What are your thoughts on this mid December possible pattern change?

I'm completely against any change to cooler weather...

My coworker and admitted cold-mongerer has been talking of a pattern change around the second week of December. I can see the 12Z GFS indicating a more stormy pattern (and cold) down south. Hope it's wrong.

I don't know why but I'm laughing at each post you make here. I guess it's because during hurricane season, we're so serious, but these winter threads are a whole lot lighter. LET IT SNOW!

[Portastorm]

YoungTurk, forgive those of us who have been around awhile who get locked into using acronyms and what may appear as Egyptian heiroglyphics. Ntxw is showing a chart of the registered and predicted numerical values for something called the Arctic Oscillation (AO). In very simple terms, when the AO is negative or really negative, the chances of cold air impacting Texas are better than when it is neutral or positive. You also will see us refer to the NAO which is the North Atlantic Oscillation.

For some good reading on the subject, and it won't take you long, check out this link:

http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html

[Patriot12]

YoungTurk, forgive those of us who have been around awhile who get locked into using acronyms and what may appear as Egyptian heiroglyphics. Ntxw is showing a chart of the registered and predicted numerical values for something called the Arctic Oscillation (AO). In very simple terms, when the AO is negative or really negative, the chances of cold air impacting Texas are better than when it is neutral or positive. You also will see us refer to the NAO which is the North Atlantic Oscillation.

For some good reading on the subject, and it won't take you long, check out this link:

http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/NAO.html

Thank you for one of the best (if not the best) responses to a question I've ever seen on the internet.

[Big O]

I asked Fred Schmude with Impact Weather the following questions this morning. His answers provide promise for those of us who really like winter weather. See below:

Q: What would the various teleconnection indices have to look like for trough to be centered along central CONUS as opposed to being situated along east coast? Any chance of this happening?

A: If we see the East Pac and Atlantic Blocks set up a little farther to the west, then we could see the main trough axis set up shop right across the Plains. This of course would be good news for the Plains and Midwest because it would increase the likelihood of more rain/snow. Even though this is a possibility (~20%), the main favored position is still the Eastern U.S. and Canada.

Q: Any chance of a McFarland Signature setting up this winter?

A: This is the type of weather pattern where we could see something as extreme as a McFarland Signature bringing bitterly cold air all the way south to the Rio Grande Valley. Last winter the risk of that kind of a pattern was less than 10%...this year I put the risk at 20-30%. The best chance of a McFarland Signature will be during the last 10 days of Dec through Jan.

Keep hope alive!!!

[Portastorm]

Hey Big O, thanks for sharing that information! Cool stuff.

[Portastorm]

A MUCH STRONGER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE
TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS APPEARS IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE
BEYOND OUR FORECAST RANGE FOR SPECIFICITY...OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WILL BE MUCH MORE PLEASANT THIS WEEKEND THAN NEXT...PLAN ACCORDINGLY.


No ... this was not from the Portastorm Weather Center!

It's the last paragraph from today's afternoon forecast discussion out of EWX (National Weather Service Forecast Office Austin/San Antonio--the "EWX" stands for New Braunfels, which is where the office is located).

[somethingfunny]

This isn't totally un-weather related: Has anybody else come down with this terrible flu/cold/sinus whatever bug?

[gboudx]

This isn't totally un-weather related: Has anybody else come down with this terrible flu/cold/sinus whatever bug?

I developed a sinus infection from a cold about 2.5 weeks ago. I've been thru 1 round of Amoxiccilin, but it didn't completely eradicate it, so now I'm on levaquin.