WPAC: BOPHA - Remnants

[euro6208]

wide view of typhoon bopha...it looks like her pinhole eye disappeared due to a massive blowup of convection...

[supercane4867]

Saved loop

[supercane4867]

thanks! so now that it says 5.0..what's its current intensity translated into kts?

90kts, which will made Bopha a CAT2

[stormstrike]

thanks! so now that it says 5.0..what's its current intensity translated into kts?

90kts, which will made Bopha a CAT2

wow.. that's a big jump......

[euro6208]

thanks! so now that it says 5.0..what's its current intensity translated into kts?

90kts, which will made Bopha a CAT2

wow.. that's a big jump......

believe it or not, it could be stronger than that...

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 NOV 2012 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 4:18:46 N Lon : 143:17:41 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 954.2mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.4 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -26.3C Cloud Region Temp : -78.3C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 72km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 6.3 degrees



numbers keep increasing!

[Meow]

This is one of most impressive tropical cyclones to me...

[dexterlabio]

don't be fooled by the cloud tops covering the center. this is getting more serious now.

[Meow]

Incredible!!!

The JMA upgraded Bopha to a typhoon.





TY 1224 (BOPHA)
Issued at 18:40 UTC, 30 November 2012

<Analyses at 30/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N4°25'(4.4°)
E142°55'(142.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N390km(210NM)
S330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 01/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N5°05'(5.1°)
E141°00'(141.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 01/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N5°40'(5.7°)
E139°05'(139.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL310km(170NM)

<Forecast for 02/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N7°00'(7.0°)
E135°05'(135.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 03/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N8°20'(8.3°)
E130°30'(130.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)

<Forecast for 04/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N10°20'(10.3°)
E125°55'(125.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Radius of probability circle 370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 05/18 UTC>
Center position of probability circle N12°05'(12.1°)
E123°10'(123.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(8kt)
Radius of probability circle 480km(260NM)

[supercane4867]

Incredible!!!

It will be much more incredible if the JMA does not upgrad Bopha to a typhoon

[supercane4867]

The ADT is right on the point now, this is indeed a CAT4

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 NOV 2012 Time : 190000 UTC
Lat : 4:30:43 N Lon : 142:49:10 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 942.7mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.4 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : -22.8C Cloud Region Temp : -77.5C

Scene Type : EYE

[cycloneye]

Not every day you see a rapidly intensifying Typhoon below 5N.

[Meow]

It will be worse if a stronger tropical cyclone devastates Mindanao again.



WTPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 4.4N 143.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 4.4N 143.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 5.1N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 5.8N 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 6.4N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 7.0N 134.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 8.4N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 9.8N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 11.3N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 4.6N 142.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has a map of the Phillippines to see where Mindanao is located? I really hope those folks are starting preparations.

[Macrocane]

Just wow! What an amazing period of rapid intensification. Look at that tiny Wilma-like. it looks to me like a 115 kt typhoon at least.

[Meow]

Does anyone has a map of the Phillippines to see where Mindanao is located? I really hope those folks are starting preparations.

The second largest island of the Philippines. The JTWC estimates that Bopha will make landfall over Mindanao first.

Severe Tropical Storm Washi just killed over 1000 people in Mindanao last year.

[cycloneye]

The sun rises over Bopha. Beautiful image but could be devastating down the road.

[cycloneye]

Is Bopha becoming annular?

[Crostorm]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 931.1mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.8 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +13.4C Cloud Region Temp : -72.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 77km
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 6.0 degrees

[stormstrike]

Latest JTWC satfix

if I'm not mistaken i think 6.0 is equivalent to at least 115 kts.....

TPPN10 PGTW 302359

A. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA)

B. 30/2330Z

C. 4.7N

D. 142.0E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY
BLACK (+1.0 ADJUSTMENT FOR WHITE SURROUNDING) YIELDS A DT OF
6.5. PT WAS 6.0; MET WAS 4.5. DBO PT, BREAKING CONSTRAINTS
(WITHIN 1.0 OF MET) AS BOTH DT AND PT ARE AT 6.0 OR ABOVE AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SUCH ESTIMATES FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE FIXES.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/1826Z 4.4N 142.9E SSMI
30/2002Z 4.5N 142.6E SSMS
30/2031Z 4.6N 142.6E WIND
30/2226Z 4.6N 142.2E SSMS