WPAC: BOPHA - Remnants

[Meow]

TPPN10 PGTW 011504

A. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA)

B. 01/1430Z

C. 5.6N

D. 139.3E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. MET AND PT ARE 6.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
01/1113Z 5.4N 140.1E SSMS
01/1215Z 5.5N 139.9E MMHS


CASPER

That equals to 127 knots.

[cycloneye]

Here is the whole ADT intensity estimates from the start to now.

[stormstrike]

Latest JTWC satfix...

value of 6.5 must be around 125-130 kts..
let's see if this trend continues....

TPPN10 PGTW 011504

A. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA)

B. 01/1430Z

C. 5.6N

D. 139.3E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. MET AND PT ARE 6.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
01/1113Z 5.4N 140.1E SSMS
01/1215Z 5.5N 139.9E MMHS

[supercane4867]

[phwxenthusiast]

here's the KNES

TXPQ27 KNES 011517
TCSWNP

A. 26W (BOPHA)

B. 01/1430Z

C. 5.6N

D. 139.3E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE (-29.1 C) IS EMBEDDED IN WHITE FOR EYE NO. OF 6.0
BUT IS SURROUNDED BY A RING OF CDG FOR .5 ADDED ADJUSTMENT MAKING A DT
OF 6.5. MET IS 6.0. PT IS 6.5. FT IS 6.5 BASED ON DT. NOTE: FT IS ON
THE “HIGH SIDE” OF 6.5 AND COULD VERY SIMPLY BEEN 7.0 EXCEPT FOR A
FEW ISOLATED WHITE PIXELS WITHIN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CMG CDO.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GALLINA

[supercane4867]

-80°C cloudtops surronding the eye, very impressive

[stormstrike]

Bopha's looking impressive again with the flaring convection and improving feeder bands! AWESOME but then again it's a monster

[cycloneye]

Sadly looks like a bee-line towards Palau. My prayers go to those 21,000 who live there that nothing bad happens.

[euro6208]

very impressive typhoon...the wpac sure knows how to deliver! look at all that black surrounding the eye...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 011510
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON BOPHA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
200 AM CHST SUN DEC 2 2012

...STRONG TYPHOON BOPHA (26W) STILL HEADED TOWARD KOROR...

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

THE TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SONSOROL IN THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

A TYPHOON WARNING MEANS THAT DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS AND THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING WINDS
GREATER THAN 73 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED
WINDS GREATER THAN 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48
HOURS.

AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON BOPHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 5.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 139.5 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NGULU
285 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
370 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR AND KAYANGEL
500 MILES EAST OF SONSOROL.

TYPHOON BOPHA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND HAS
INCREASED FORWARD SPEED TO 14 MPH. TYPHOON BOPHA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THIS SAME GENERAL MOTION THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 130 MPH. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...5.6 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 139.5
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 5 AM CHST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

AYDLETT

[euro6208]

TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE

TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SONSOROL IN THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

[mrbagyo]

here's the KNES

TXPQ27 KNES 011517
TCSWNP

A. 26W (BOPHA)

B. 01/1430Z

C. 5.6N

D. 139.3E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE (-29.1 C) IS EMBEDDED IN WHITE FOR EYE NO. OF 6.0
BUT IS SURROUNDED BY A RING OF CDG FOR .5 ADDED ADJUSTMENT MAKING A DT
OF 6.5. MET IS 6.0. PT IS 6.5. FT IS 6.5 BASED ON DT. NOTE: FT IS ON
THE “HIGH SIDE” OF 6.5 AND COULD VERY SIMPLY BEEN 7.0 EXCEPT FOR A
FEW ISOLATED WHITE PIXELS WITHIN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CMG CDO.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GALLINA

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
AND A 9NM EYE THAT HAS SLIGHTLY CONTRACTED IN THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN THE EIR ALONG WITH A
011113Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TY 26W HAS A POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE
CIRCULATION CENTER PROVIDING AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CURRENT STR. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS, AMPLE OUTFLOW, AND HIGH OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU
48. AFTER TAU 48, UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
DECREASE SLIGHTLY, ALLOWING FOR A DECREASE IN INTENSITY. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH ALL
MODELS INDICATING A NEAR CONSTANT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 26W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWEST AND SLOW AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. THE
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE FROM LANDFALL THROUGH TAU 120 AS
LAND INTERACTION IMPACTS THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS
REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND EGRR. EGRR
CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHARP TURN NORTH AT TAU 96 AND GFS MAINTAINS A
MORE SOUTHERN AND FASTER TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE NOGAPS, ECMWF, AND GFDN SOLUTION, WHICH
ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. DUE TO THE TIGHT AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS,
THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGH.//
NNNN


000
WTPQ81 PGUM 011602
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TYPHOON BOPHA (26W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 AM CHST SUN DEC 02 2012

...STRONG TYPHOON BOPHA (26W) MAINTAINING INTENSITY AND MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD KOROR...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR
PEOPLE IN KOROR AND NEARBY ISLANDS INCLUDING ANGAUR...PELELIU...
BABELDAOB AND KAYANGEL AND SONSOROL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND
FOR NGULU ATOLL IN YAP STATE.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

THE TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SONSOROL IN THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

A TYPHOON WARNING MEANS THAT DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS AND THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING WINDS
GREATER THAN 73 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING SUSTAINED
WINDS GREATER THAN 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48
HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON BOPHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 5.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 139.5 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NGULU
285 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YAP
370 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU AND KAYANGEL
500 MILES EAST OF SONSOROL.

TYPHOON BOPHA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AND HAS INCREASED FORWARD
SPEED TO 14 MPH. TYPHOON BOPHA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS SAME
GENERAL MOTION THROUGH TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE STILL
130 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TYPHOON BOPHA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES BOPHA SOUTH OF NGULU AND ACROSS
THE ISLANDS OF THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU FROM KAYANGEL IN THE NORTH TO
ANGAUR IN THE SOUTH. THESE AREAS ARE AT GREAT RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS. THE TYPHOON COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 4 TYPHOON WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AS HIGH AS 150 MPH PRIOR TO REACHING THESE ISLANDS.

...KOROR AND KAYANGEL...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THIS
MORNING. TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS FOR LOCATIONS
FROM KAYANGEL IN THE NORTH TO ANGAUR IN THE SOUTH. THE LAST MAJOR
TYPHOON TO HIT PALAU WAS SUPER TYPHOON MIKE IN 1990. DO NOT
UNDERESTIMATE THE DESTRUCTIVE POTENTIAL OF TYPHOON-STRENGTH WINDS.
KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST BULLETINS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. PREPARE A
SHELTER WHICH WILL BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND STRONG WINDS IN ADDITION TO
HAVING ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER TO LAST SEVERAL DAYS AFTER THE STORM.
IF YOU HAVE A CAR...TOP OFF THE GAS TANK. POWER WILL LIKELY BE OUT
FOR SOME TIME. HAVE SOME CASH ON HAND FOR EMERGENCIES. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS OF YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

...WIND INFORMATION...
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH NEAR
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE BY SUNDAY EVENING...AND TYPHOON CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT THE EXACT
WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 8 TO 10 FEET ALONG COASTAL SHORES IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 12 TO 20 FEET OR HIGHER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS MAY CAUSE COASTAL INUNDATION OF 10
TO 15 FEET OR HIGHER FOR LOCATIONS THAT ARE DIRECTLY HIT.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS. RAINFALL WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH 6 TO 10
INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LIKELY. FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

...NGULU...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH THIS
MORNING. DAMAGING WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
COULD BECOME STRONGER IF BOPHA TAKES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OR THE
WIND FIELD INCREASES.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 8 TO 10 FEET ALONG WILL BUILD TO 11 TO 15 FEET ON
SUNDAY AND COULD BECOME HIGHER IF BOPHA TAKES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
OR THE WIND FIELD INCREASES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS LIKELY THIS MORNING. RAINFALL WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LIKELY.

...SONSOROL...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL AFTER EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH NEAR SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. DAMAGING WINDS OF 35 TO 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AND COULD BECOME STRONGER IF BOPHA TAKES
A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT THE EXACT WIND
SPEED AND DIRECTION.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 6 TO 9 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SHORES THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF MAY BUILD TO 10 TO 15 FEET
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AND COULD CAUSE 1 TO 3 FEET OF COASTAL
INUNDATION. SURF COULD BECOME HIGHER IF BOPHA TAKES A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK OR THE WIND FIELD EXPANDS SIGNIFICANTLY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.
RAINFALL WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...DEPENDING UPON THE MOTION
OF THE TYPHOON.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT TYPHOON BOPHA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 900 AM CHST SUNDAY MORNING...OR SOONER
IF NECESSARY.

$$

SIMPSON/STANKO

[mrbagyo]

^That would be interesting! I want this season to end with a bang.

its really banging, it is forecast to bang our archipelago...

[mrbagyo]

dang! , ADT is soaring again, bopha really has a good chance of becoming our 3rd cat 5 this season...


when was the last time we had this number of pages in wpac forum?

[supercane4867]

when was the last time we had this number of pages in wpac forum?

Guchol is the only typhoon this year has more pages

[Meow]

when was the last time we had this number of pages in wpac forum?

Guchol in June 2012.

viewtopic.php?f=54&t=112870

[cycloneye]

You can go to the archieves forum and look for those threads of more than 20 pages from the WPAC since 2003 and there are a few.

viewforum.php?f=54

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 DEC 2012 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 5:48:03 N Lon : 138:46:35 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 934.7mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : -0.6C Cloud Region Temp : -78.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 6.9 degrees


7.0= 140 knots...

[cycloneye]

NRL at 18:00z has 125kts and 929 mbs at 5.8N-138.8W. That will be JTWC next warning.