WPAC: BOPHA - Remnants

[euro6208]

Fascinating circumstances. JTWC called it a super typhoon (I think rightly so) just before it started a serious weakening. It is clearly already not a super typhoon and doesn't look like it will be before hitting Palau. That's great news. But the bad news is that it looks like the eye will make a direct hit on Palau and it will still be a very formidable typhoon as it does. I would imagine the odds of a direct hit on that tiny island have to be very, very low, but it's going to happen.

that is what you call a rigid dvorak scale...

[euro6208]

SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 52
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z, 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.//
NNNN

52 feet high waves are not good for Palau

this is really a compact typhoon...imagine, +65 knot winds only extend out to 35 miles

01/2030 UTC 5.9N 138.2E T7.5/7.5 BOPHA -- West Pacific

[ozonepete]

Fascinating circumstances. JTWC called it a super typhoon (I think rightly so) just before it started a serious weakening. It is clearly already not a super typhoon and doesn't look like it will be before hitting Palau. That's great news. But the bad news is that it looks like the eye will make a direct hit on Palau and it will still be a very formidable typhoon as it does. I would imagine the odds of a direct hit on that tiny island have to be very, very low, but it's going to happen.

that is what you call a rigid dvorak scale...

Exactly. But still in all a wonderful tool - I love that it has verified very well against RECON, especially for strong storms. I'm very grateful that we have it. And it shows that tropical cyclones often ramp up and down very quickly - something we didn't know before the satellite age.

[HurricaneBill]

Could weakening cause Bopha to increase in size?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Bopha is likely not as strong as earlier, that's true. However, it remains very, very powerful and very, very dangerous. Remember, it was probably in the neighborhood of 165-175 mph earlier. Judging by its appearance now, I'd say 155-165 mph.

[euro6208]

Bopha is likely not as strong as earlier, that's true. However, it remains very, very powerful and very, very dangerous. Remember, it was probably in the neighborhood of 165-175 mph earlier. Judging by its appearance now, I'd say 155-165 mph.

i agree with you...i say it was probrably 180-185 mph earlier...it has weakened some to 160-165 mph...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 020056
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON BOPHA (26W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
1100 AM CHST SUN DEC 2 2012

...DANGEROUS TYPHOON BOPHA (26W) STEADILY MOVING TOWARD KOROR...

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

THE TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SONSOROL IN THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU.

A TYPHOON WARNING MEANS THAT DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS AND THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING WINDS
GREATER THAN 73 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW.

A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED
WINDS GREATER THAN 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48
HOURS.

AT 1000 AM CHST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON BOPHA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 6.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 137.6 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF NGULU
235 MILES SOUTH OF YAP
235 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR
240 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KAYANGEL AND
375 MILES EAST OF SONSOROL.

TYPHOON BOPHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 145 MPH. TYPHOON BOPHA IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...POSSIBLY
BECOMING A SUPER TYPHOON BY THIS AFTERNOON. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 155 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM POSITION...6.1 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
137.6 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
15 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 145 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM.

$$

ZIOBRO

[ozonepete]

Dvorak has dropped to near 6.0. and that looks reasonable. That's about 120 knots or 140 mph. That makes sense to me given the serious core problems on the western side. It appears from water vapor image loops that a wedge of dry air dropped down from the north and got absorbed into the core circulation on the northwest side. But the same loops seem to show that the circulation is no longer absorbing any more of it. If that's true it could maintain it's current strength but you still have DMIN starting and a possible ERC coming on. If the ERC does occur and completes before landfall it could start ramping up again just as it nears Palau. But it's running out of time.

[ozonepete]

Could weakening cause Bopha to increase in size?

That's question is really hard to answer. The reasons for Increases in areal coverage are complex and there's no correlation with weakening in general as far as I know, even though many recurving TCs increase in size as they weaken but those cases are usually due to transitioning to extra tropical. Bopha is not in that situation right now.

[CrazyC83]

Could weakening cause Bopha to increase in size?

That is probably what will happen. But not to the extent of storms at higher latitudes. Remember that Bopha is at the latitude of about Suriname right now...and I don't know of any Atlantic storm on record that has hit that far south.

[dexterlabio]

as the small gets cloud-filled, the storm's size seems to be decreasing as well. i think the dry air is affecting the vapor especially on the western part of its circulation. the shear seems to be okay so the thing we can blame is the dry air, perhaps...

[ozonepete]

as the small gets cloud-filled, the storm's size seems to be decreasing as well. i think the dry air is affecting the vapor especially on the western part of its circulation. the shear seems to be okay so the thing we can blame is the dry air, perhaps...

Hi Dex, always good to see you. The overall size doesn't actually seem to be changing at all. I think the dry air effects (if that's what it was) are pretty much over now. As far as any ERc, if it's doing one it certainly isn't a very classic one, but the eye is definitely shrinking rapidly now. The core briefly opened on the southwestern side at 0130 but now has closed off again, and since it seems to be rebuilding a little on the western side one would think the eye will get larger and well defined again and it will maintain this intensity to landfall at Palau. What's unfortunate is that it appears to be a direct hit. So even though the strongest core winds only are 70 miles across Palau will get the full force and a really intense storm surge.

[cycloneye]

All these tweets are from James Reynolds ‏@typhoonfury


People boarding up windows all over town, locals anxious. Bar owner at Kramers says first time in 16 years he's had to board up windows!

Hearing reports from locals that "curfew" in effect tomorrow from 12pm in Koror. No traffic allowed on streets etc #typhoon #Bopha


Chatting to locals who have evacuated their low lying homes to hotels on higher ground, our hotel full up with "evacuees" #typhoon #Bopha

Morning view from motel in Palau, 1.5ft above sea level. Our room on 2nd floor pic.twitter.com/ZmTtEenh

[dexterlabio]

@ozonepete Haha it's always this time of the year when I see you interacting with us in the WPAC thread. I just find this typhoon relatively small compared to the size of usual TC's I see on this basin, and the convection seems to waning a bit making it look like it's shrinking in size.


Palau is such a small place and a direct hit from a super typhoon is no fun. But I guess it will be such a thrill for James.

[ozonepete]

@ozonepete Haha it's always this time of the year when I see you interacting with us in the WPAC thread. I just find this typhoon relatively small compared to the size of usual TC's I see on this basin, and the convection seems to waning a bit making it look like it's shrinking in size.


Palau is such a small place and a direct hit from a super typhoon is no fun. But I guess it will be such a thrill for James.

Ha yeah always a pleasure. To be honest, I wish I was James right now. But I'd be at least 3 stories up in the strongest reinforced concrete hotel as the core comes in, that's for sure. But I know James is smart enough to do that and we will get some awesome video and pictures. He will also be an asset to the community there because he will explain the danger to them and help them get to a secure location.

[euro6208]

getting closer to palau...

to everyone over there, please know you are in our thoughts and prayers and we are thinking about you...please be safe...

[supercane4867]

The ADT just can't follow with the wobbling of the eye

[dexterlabio]

regarding the wobble, yeah it's kinda stairstepping with a constant wnw then a brief west motion and resuming a more wnw track. those little things will say how the storm could hit Palau, whether just south or a direct hit...

[supercane4867]

TXPQ27 KNES 020337
TCSWNP

A. 26W (BOPHA)

B. 02/0230Z

C. 6.4N

D. 136.8E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/7.5/W1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF BOPHA HAS DETERIORATED IN PAST
6 HOURS. EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED AND WARMED AND ALSO APPEARS TO
HAVE DECREASED IN DIAMETER. CENTRAL FEATURE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
AROUND EYE REMAIN VERY COLD (CDG) ALTHOUGH WIDTH HAS DECREASED. THERE
IS A VERY TIGHT GRADIENT IN COLDEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE INDICATING POSSIBLE WESTERLY SHEAR. THIS HAS ALSO AFFECTED
DT DETERMINATION SINCE GRADIENT IS RIGHT AROUND .5 DEGREE EMBEDDED
DISTANCE. HAVE USED SURROUNDING TEMPERATURE OF B (.5 DEGREE) WITH B EYE
AND CDG RING TEMPERATURE FOR CF=5.5. WAS ABLE TO ADD .5 FOR BANDING WITH
WARM WEDGE WRAPPING AROUND WESTERN SEMICIRCLE TO GIVE DT=6.0. MET=6.5
BASED ON 24 HOUR DEVELOPMENT TREND AND PT AGREES. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[supercane4867]

regarding the wobble, yeah it's kinda stairstepping with a constant wnw then a brief west motion and resuming a more wnw track. those little things will say how the storm could hit Palau, whether just south or a direct hit...

ya i see a wobble to the south, good news for Palau