Texas Winter 2012-2013

[vbhoutex]

Winter schminter!!! Wake me up when it happens!! I've heard this and I've heard that. And that pattern change hasn't happened yet. I think Wxman57 is holding Winter hostage!!

[somethingfunny]

This isn't totally un-weather related: Has anybody else come down with this terrible flu/cold/sinus whatever bug?

I developed a sinus infection from a cold about 2.5 weeks ago. I've been thru 1 round of Amoxiccilin, but it didn't completely eradicate it, so now I'm on levaquin.

I got this bug a few days ago with a sinus headache and stuffed up face, peaked yesterday and I feel a bit better this morning. 2.5 weeks is the last thing I want to hear! The winter bugs are hitting us early this season; everybody get your flu shots!

[Ntxw]

Since tomorrow is the start of meteorological winter, hopefully I can get together information in time to post an outlook for next month later today. I made note on my thoughts of winter starting fast and that December could be a fun month back in Sept. DJF is coming and it's time to make it or break it!

[Portastorm]

Winter schminter!!! Wake me up when it happens!! I've heard this and I've heard that. And that pattern change hasn't happened yet. I think Wxman57 is holding Winter hostage!!

The 0z European continues to suggest a plunge of Polar air into the Southern Plains around Dec. 9th. It has been consistent. King Euro does not mess around!

[Tireman4]

Winter schminter!!! Wake me up when it happens!! I've heard this and I've heard that. And that pattern change hasn't happened yet. I think Wxman57 is holding Winter hostage!!

That is it. That is just dadgum it. He had last year. No way he gets this year. Not fair. This must be replacement winter. Why does not the regular winter sign the contract and come back. Sheesh.

[vbhoutex]

And now this from Impact Weather- ImpactWeather
http://yourweatherblog.com/?p=11403

[weatherdude1108]

And now this from Impact Weather- ImpactWeather
http://yourweatherblog.com/?p=11403

Looks like it's time to move out of Texas (and Oklahoma, Kansas, and parts of Nebraska) -- if you want rain and cool.

[Portastorm]

Using my Emperor Palpatine voice: everything is progressing as I have forseen. (insert evil-sounding cackle here)



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Turning fans on! I wonder if Houston might beat it's record low?

I also see the center of the low will travel right over me (not good news for me but it should be for Houston). My Ponderosa is moving just a little bit so that too is a good sign.

[Tireman4]

Turning fans on! I wonder if Houston might beat it's record low?

I also see the center of the low will travel right over me (not good news for me but it should be for Houston). My Ponderosa is moving just a little bit so that too is a good sign.

The lowest in Houston ( not me, I have seen it at -1 below in Detroit Michigan in January 1994) I have ever seen was Christmas Day, 1983 when it was 13.

[Ntxw]

Alright folks, welcome to the start of December! One of the three designated magical months!

I'm pretty sure many here are having the blues (or seeing red flashes given the warmth coming). Except Wxman57 of course he's probably loving it. No way to put it but December is going to start out warm, no denying it. Near record warmth in fact.

Before we all lose hope and go cliff diving, I am going to try and present some hope for us cold mongering bunch. First of all this WILL NOT be the non-winter of 2011-2012. El Nino, La Nina, or El Nono when you have a powerful signal (AO) that is usually consistently 2 standard deviations below normal, the magic will happen in any enso state. It is always the wild card to any winter. And for the record my prediction of El Nino peaking at 1.3c+ is clearly going to be unbelievably wrong, and so now it appears the drivers will be the teleconnections.

Analog situation

Believe it or not the collective analog years have worked quite well showing a cool October, milder November. The key here is not to use any particular analog as no two seasons are the same but to look at them as whole for an overall look (I learned this over the past two months). And it appears the blockier winters have become best fits (1957, 1968, 1976, 2002, 2003, and 2009).

Now the same patterns does not always result in the same outcome. That being said December looks promising! This is what December looked like in those years.


Cold southern and eastern tier of the country.

What does it mean for the Merry month of December?

I firmly believe we will flip the PNA signal this month. It's just been negative for too long and the laws of balance says it should! I have seen enough arctic blocking this season to believe it will continue. But it's going to take time, often my biggest mistake any season is expecting a pattern change to instantly happen. It doesn't work like that. Between now and the 10th, Texas is going to be warm. I hope the flip occurs shortly after then because there is a lot of cold air to tap into. Aside from that I also believe between the 15th and 31st, Texas will also be under threat once or twice by winter storms.

[amawea]

I appreciate all your research and input Ntxw, and I sure hope your right. I have 6 grandkids in Southeast Texas that would sure be happy.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Keep faith.....this is the countryside here and we have a couple of days coming up in the long range forecast with winds 30kmph coming from the NW.

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/your_weather/details/620/8818766/2/cask0210/plpcities/786/

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Turning fans on! I wonder if Houston might beat it's record low?

I also see the center of the low will travel right over me (not good news for me but it should be for Houston). My Ponderosa is moving just a little bit so that too is a good sign.

The lowest in Houston ( not me, I have seen it at -1 below in Detroit Michigan in January 1994) I have ever seen was Christmas Day, 1983 when it was 13.

I wish that was the coldest that I have experienced.

If it wasn't for the dryness (and heat and humidity) down there I'd be sooooooooooo jealous!

[~FlipFlopGirl~]

Broke a record in Waco Today- 81 and new record of 83! So there is a hope mid month for some cold air!

[Tireman4]

Running the A/C in Houston. Lovely. Just lovely. Sigh.

[Ntxw]

It's too HOT! Starting to see signs of ridging out near Hawaii medium range. This bodes well for those hoping for a +PNA.

[Rgv20]

By mid month we may get the +PNA Ntxw....Still a long ways to go tho.





Also in the long range the GFS Ensemble Means forecast 500mb Height Anomalies show a blocking pattern setting up as we head until mid December....Colder weather will finally arrive for much of the nation, hopefully Texas gets in the action

Forecast 500mb Height Anomalies 6-10 Days



Forecast 500mb Height Anomalies 11-15 Days

[Ntxw]

Great post Rgv20! It depicts the potential for rex blocking very well. I'd like to see the Euro ensembles join in too. I think we have one more storm to flush out of the GOA next week and the WPAC jet will kick in the block.

[weatherdude1108]

Running the A/C in Houston. Lovely. Just lovely. Sigh.

A/C on tonight at the Weatherdude center. Maybe if I set it low enough, I can light a fire in the fireplace.