WPAC: BOPHA - Remnants

[RobWESTPACWX]

Hey guys, just put together a new video, plus at 09UTC will be doing a live update if anyone wants to join in. Plus used that photo of Palau this morning in the update, if you find any more photos I really appreciate it.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4AgJqDUN8c[/youtube]

[greenkat]

Bopha a super typhoon?!? Have I just not been paying attention?

[stormstrike]

regarding the wobble, yeah it's kinda stairstepping with a constant wnw then a brief west motion and resuming a more wnw track. those little things will say how the storm could hit Palau, whether just south or a direct hit...

ya i see a wobble to the south, good news for Palau

wow.. that STR to the north sure is firm to make Bopha wobble..

but it looks like Bopha is weakening..isn't it?

[ozonepete]

Bopha a super typhoon?!? Have I just not been paying attention?

It was a STY this afternoon. It has now weakened to about 120 knots but that's nothing to sneeze at. Looks like it will maintain around that intensity to landfall.

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[greenkat]

Let's all hope for Palau and the Philippines... Be safe, everybody!

[ozonepete]

regarding the wobble, yeah it's kinda stairstepping with a constant wnw then a brief west motion and resuming a more wnw track. those little things will say how the storm could hit Palau, whether just south or a direct hit...

ya i see a wobble to the south, good news for Palau
img http://i48.tinypic.com/3523ccg.gif /img

A wobble to south is very bad news for Palau. It means that the right front quadrant will pass over the island. The right front quadrant, the right side in relation to the direction of motion (in this case the north side) is where the most damaging winds and highest surge are.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Yes, im keeping the super typhoon status up there regardless, people see typhoon, yaa... but super typhoon ears start to perk up and it goes from serious to real serious.

[supercane4867]

regarding the wobble, yeah it's kinda stairstepping with a constant wnw then a brief west motion and resuming a more wnw track. those little things will say how the storm could hit Palau, whether just south or a direct hit...

ya i see a wobble to the south, good news for Palau
img http://i48.tinypic.com/3523ccg.gif /img

A wobble to south is very bad news for Palau. It means that the right front quadrant will pass over the island. The right front quadrant, the right side in relation to the direction of motion (in this case the north side) is where the most damaging winds and highest surge are.

But the hurricane force wind only extended out 35 miles from the center, it won't be as bad if they missed the northern eyewall right?

[dexterlabio]

will be looking at the next time frames though, coz I have a feeling the wobble could also be because of its inner core issues.

[ozonepete]

But the hurricane force wind only extended out 35 miles from the center, it won't be as bad if they missed the northern eyewall right?

That's correct. But remember that 35 miles is an estimate and I'd say that it's probably too low; it's a small storm but not tiny. But even assuming the hurricane winds are 35 miles out from the eye, if the eye is 10 miles across than the hurricane winds are really 5 + 35 or 40 miles out from the center point. Since it looks like they will be easily within 40 miles of the center point you would prefer they are on the south side of it. There doesn't seem to be much chance at all left that the center of the eye will pass more than 40-50 miles away from them.

[ozonepete]

will be looking at the next time frames though, coz I have a feeling the wobble could also be because of its inner core issues.

But remember even the seemingly most perfectly structured TCs wobble at this intensity. It's called trochoidal motion and is due to the physics of a rotating storm with high velocity winds rotating around a small central core.

[Crostorm]

[yulou]

Bopha can be the first Typhoon which hits Palau directly in 21 years. It can also be the strongest one ever since World War II.
The last one was STS Sharon in 1991.

[supercane4867]

Nice to see you Yulou, What's your opinion on Bopha? It's encountering some inner core issues isn't it?

[captfox]

How can I find updates from James in Palau? My son lives there. Thank you for your updates. While scary, it helps us to follow this. Cannot wait for your report that it has passed Palau.

[ozonepete]

How can I find updates from James in Palau? My son lives there. Thank you for your updates. While scary, it helps us to follow this. Cannot wait for your report that it has passed Palau.

His name is James Reynolds and you can find him at westernpacificweather.com. He also has a FaceBook and twitter account but right now I'm not able to get through on any of them. You can also follow us on here. Although there aren't as many people on here right now due to the time, you'll get good updates here. I will have to check out soon because it's very late but there should always be at least a few good people on here who will keep you updated, and in the coming morning (eastern time) when Bopha will hit, there should be some people on here relaying what James is reporting. Good luck.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Running a live cast in a hour and a half at 09UTC or 1800 Palau time, here is the link to the live cast if you want to join in and share your thoughts. Or if you have any questions here at S2K let me know.

On the question from James as well, check his twitter @typhoonfury. That is the best way to get reports from him right now.

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/20 ... versation/

[ozonepete]

Btw, especially for you supercane4867, there has been a noticeable westward jog from Bopha over the last couple of hours so it is becoming more possible that Palau could get less of the core than forecast. I suspect it may wobble back north and erase the southward drop it did but if it doesn't do that soon they could really escape with just a brush from the northern side of the damaging core. That would be great news.

[supercane4867]

Look at these insanely cold cloudtops, the weakening Bopha experienced in the past few hours is probably done

[stormstrike]

WOW.. never thought that JTWC would increase Bopha's intensity.. now at 135 kts a little more kts closer to Category 5...