WPAC: BOPHA - Remnants

[euro6208]

huge burst of convection...bopha looks like it might strengthen yet again...

[supercane4867]

JTWC keeps Bopha at 135kts despite it's undergoing an ERC

SUBJ: TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 028
WTPN31 PGTW 021500
1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 6.5N 134.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.5N 134.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 7.0N 131.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 7.7N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 8.5N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 9.4N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 11.3N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 12.6N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 14.3N 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 6.6N 133.9E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 52 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

ERC means larger size too? How prone to storm surge is Mindanao?

[ManilaTC]

Mindanao dont get any storms frequently.

I think this is the first back-to-back year that the same area will be hit by a storm, but not of this magnitude.

[supercane4867]

Down to 115kts, seems that Bopha is having a hard time finishing the ERC

SUBJ: TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 029
WTPN31 PGTW 022100
1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 6.5N 133.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.5N 133.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 7.1N 130.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 7.9N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 8.7N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 9.8N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 11.6N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 12.9N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 14.7N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 6.6N 132.4E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 52 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.
//
BT
#0001

[ManilaTC]

Just when i was about to say EWRC FAIL , its starting to form an eye again...

[greenkat]

Look out Mindanao! hopefully Bopha's EWRC stalls long enough for it to get somewhat broken up over the Philippines...

[supercane4867]

The ERC is done and Bopha is clearing the eye out, there's a chance that its eye will stay cloudfilled upon landfall, but that doesn't mean any weaker in intensity as long as the eyewall is intact

[dhoeze]

For our friends in the Visayas and Mindanao,

Please take care. Praying for your safety.
Please continue to monitor updates here as well.. It will help a lot in the preparation.

[ManilaTC]

Drastic Change in the Storm Track of JMA.
Mindoro and Southern Luzon is back under the gun again

[dexterlabio]

Look who's back...







Also, with the JMA latest track forecast, I think it's because they assume a little break between the STR from the WPAC and the other STR extending from Indochina. Well not really a break, but there's some sort of transition...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=westpac&sat=wgms&prod=dlm4&zoom=&time=

[dexterlabio]

[supercane4867]

JTWC says Bopha is weakening, I strongly disagrees

SUBJ: TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 030
WTPN31 PGTW 030300
1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 6.7N 131.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 6.7N 131.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 7.4N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 8.2N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 9.1N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 10.3N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 12.1N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.6N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.0N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 6.9N 130.9E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 48 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[euro6208]

the eye is becoming well defined again...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 030100
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON BOPHA (26W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
1100 AM CHST MON DEC 3 2012

...TYPHOON BOPHA (26W) CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SONSOROL IN THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE IN PROGRESS AT SONSOROL.

AT 1000 AM CHST...0000Z...THE EYE OF TYPHOON BOPHA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 6.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 131.6 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 105 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SONSOROL
195 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KOROR AND
235 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KAYANGEL.

TYPHOON BOPHA IS MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH. BOPHA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS MOTION WILL TAKE THE CENTER OF BOPHA FARTHER
AWAY FROM SONSOROL THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 MPH. TYPHOON BOPHA WILL WEAKEN
SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP
TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUT UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM POSITION...6.7 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
131.6 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE






WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM WEST OF
PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TY 26W REMAINS WELL
ORGANIZED WITH A VERY SYMMETRIC, COMPACT STRUCTURE. A NOTABLE DEEP
BAND OF CONVECTION IS EVIDENT WRAPPING AROUND THE ENTIRETY OF THE
SYSTEM, WITH A PAIR OF SECONDARY LESS CONVECTIVE BANDS ON THE EAST
AND WEST SIDES OF THE PRIMARY BAND. A RECENT 022117Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
PASS SUPPORTS THE WELL ORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF TY 26W AND SUGGESTS
THE EYE IS ATTEMPTING TO RE-DEVELOP. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON A 5.5/5.5 DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW INDICATING 102 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS WELL
ESTABLISHED AND CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW
(05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE SYSTEM. TY 26W
CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ON A STEADY WESTWARD TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL INTO THE
PHILIPPINE ISLANDS AROUND TAU 24. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW
VWS, AMPLE OUTFLOW, AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL ALLOW THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS A STRONG TYPHOON THROUGH LANDFALL, WITH
ONLY A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED DUE TO A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER LANDFALL, TY 26W IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
PHILIPPINES.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS), SLOWING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A COL REGION
BETWEEN TWO ELONGATED LOBES OF THE STR. INCREASING VWS AND THE
INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE WILL HAMPER
THE REORGANIZATION OF TY 26W AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL
SCS. THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS REGARDING THE INTENSITY AT LATER TAUS
DUE TO THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE PHILIPPINES AND WHETHER THE
POSSIBILITY FOR GREATER WEAKENING EXISTS THAN CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY
MODEL GUIDANCE. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT VARIATION BY TAU 120. DUE TO THIS TIGHT AGREEMENT, THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGH.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

http://www.guampdn.com/article/20121203/NEWS01/121203003/Palau-typhoon-aftermath-Power-out-waves-inundate-low-lying-areas?odyssey=mod|breaking|text|Frontpage

Palau typhoon aftermath: Power out, waves inundate low-lying areas

Palau President Johnson Toribiong said this morning the island nation's capital, Koror, escaped major damage from Typhoon Bopha, but he's waiting for an assessment of eastern atolls and islands where waves went inland.

[euro6208]

the eyewall replacement is complete...could we see another major intensification? it would be something if this continues to intensify up to landfall

estimates have increased in response...

KNES- 6.0
PGTW- 6.0
UW-CIMSS- 6.0

[dexterlabio]

if anything, this typhoon is an example of a tropical cyclone that has gone over a classic eyewall replacement cycle. and Bopha did it twice, successfully.

[SouthDadeFish]

What a beautiful storm.... A monster.

Check out all the ice scattering:

[supercane4867]

Eye became visible on satellite, expect JTWC to bump up the intensity again in the next advisory