UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 DEC 2012 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 6:52:48 N Lon : 130:50:00 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 949.7mb/117.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.6 6.6
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km
Center Temp : -20.7C Cloud Region Temp : -77.4C
Scene Type : EYE
WPAC: BOPHA - Remnants
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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supercane4867
- Category 5
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Typhoon
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supercane4867
- Category 5
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Typhoon
Last edited by supercane4867 on Mon Dec 03, 2012 12:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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supercane4867
- Category 5
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mrbagyo
- Category 5
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- Age: 32
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- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Typhoon
euro6208 wrote:the eye is becoming well defined again...
I like the MIMIC imagery...that's really an example of a classic EWRC ...
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mrbagyo
- Category 5
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- Age: 32
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- Contact:
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Typhoon
bad news for caraga region.. Mindanao, Visayas... to everyone in its path, be ready for this
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
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francis327
- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 81
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- Location: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
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supercane4867
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Typhoon
Numbers continue to go up
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 DEC 2012 Time : 051500 UTC
Lat : 6:52:46 N Lon : 130:25:53 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 936.4mb/132.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 7.0 7.0
Center Temp : -10.5C Cloud Region Temp : -78.9C
Scene Type : EYE
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 DEC 2012 Time : 051500 UTC
Lat : 6:52:46 N Lon : 130:25:53 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 936.4mb/132.2kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 7.0 7.0
Center Temp : -10.5C Cloud Region Temp : -78.9C
Scene Type : EYE
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phwxenthusiast
- Category 2
- Posts: 637
- Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:10 am
- Location: Holbrook, NY (Long Island)
JMA back up to 100kt! 
ZCZC 067
WTPQ20 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1224 BOPHA (1224)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 07.0N 130.4E GOOD
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 040600UTC 08.6N 125.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 050600UTC 11.0N 121.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 060600UTC 12.7N 119.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =
NNNN
ZCZC 067
WTPQ20 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1224 BOPHA (1224)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 07.0N 130.4E GOOD
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 040600UTC 08.6N 125.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 050600UTC 11.0N 121.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 060600UTC 12.7N 119.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =
NNNN
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stormstrike
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 159
- Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2012 12:37 am
Re:
phwxenthusiast wrote:JMA back up to 100kt!
ZCZC 067
WTPQ20 RJTD 030600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1224 BOPHA (1224)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030600UTC 07.0N 130.4E GOOD
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 040600UTC 08.6N 125.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 050600UTC 11.0N 121.4E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 060600UTC 12.7N 119.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =
NNNN
yeah.. and JTWC has gone up too.. now back to Category 4 with 115 kts.. and they expect it to intensify to 125 kts
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stormstrike
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 159
- Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2012 12:37 am
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Typhoon
Latest JTWC track closely resembles Washi's entry and exit point in Mindanao..
Hoping folks there have already learned their lesson and be more vigilant on this Category 4 howler..
Hoping folks there have already learned their lesson and be more vigilant on this Category 4 howler..
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dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3466
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Typhoon
Aside from the persistent and growing area of deep convection around the eye, the typhoon seems to be growing in size, too. I hate to bet on this but at this rate, this has a shot to become super once again before landfall. And notice how the overall structure has improved as it lifts to a higher latitude.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3466
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
uhhh i don't know but right now it looks stronger than it was when JTWC declared it a 135kt super typhoon. or maybe i'm thinking too much...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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phwxenthusiast
- Category 2
- Posts: 637
- Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:10 am
- Location: Holbrook, NY (Long Island)
DT now back to 7.0!
TPPN10 PGTW 031205
A. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA)
B. 03/1130Z
C. 7.4N
D. 128.9E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T7.0/7.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
CASPER
TPPN10 PGTW 031205
A. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA)
B. 03/1130Z
C. 7.4N
D. 128.9E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T7.0/7.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 7.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
CASPER
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stormstrike
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 159
- Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2012 12:37 am
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Typhoon
wtf.. RAMMB just upgraded Bopha's winds to 140 kts
a Category 5 howler is about to slam Mindanao!
PRAY and PREPARE
a Category 5 howler is about to slam Mindanao!
PRAY and PREPARE
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supercane4867
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Typhoon
Bopha is now a Category 5
Synoptic Time Latitude Longitude Intensity
201212031200 7.4 128.9 140
Synoptic Time Latitude Longitude Intensity
201212031200 7.4 128.9 140
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phwxenthusiast
- Category 2
- Posts: 637
- Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:10 am
- Location: Holbrook, NY (Long Island)
wow, that is pretty scary... 
meanwhile, JMA has kept Bopha at 100kt, i was hoping they'd at least make it an intense storm... they did, however, brought down the min pressure to 930hPa...
ZCZC 474
WTPQ20 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1224 BOPHA (1224)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 07.4N 128.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 09.3N 123.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 051200UTC 11.6N 119.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 061200UTC 13.0N 117.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =
NNNN
meanwhile, JMA has kept Bopha at 100kt, i was hoping they'd at least make it an intense storm... they did, however, brought down the min pressure to 930hPa...
ZCZC 474
WTPQ20 RJTD 031200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1224 BOPHA (1224)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 031200UTC 07.4N 128.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 041200UTC 09.3N 123.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 051200UTC 11.6N 119.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 061200UTC 13.0N 117.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =
NNNN
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supercane4867
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Typhoon
WOW...
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 DEC 2012 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 7:27:49 N Lon : 128:44:50 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 917.7mb/149.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.3 7.5 7.5
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km
Center Temp : +0.2C Cloud Region Temp : -81.8C
Scene Type : EYE
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 DEC 2012 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 7:27:49 N Lon : 128:44:50 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 917.7mb/149.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.3 7.5 7.5
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km
Center Temp : +0.2C Cloud Region Temp : -81.8C
Scene Type : EYE
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supercane4867
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Typhoon
Still intensifying...could become 145kts at landfall, catastrophic for the Philippines
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dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3466
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Typhoon
The (likely) last tropical cyclone this year is a Category 5 super typhoon. This typhoon season really wants to end with a bang.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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