some slight strengthening is forecast before bopha starts to dissipate...
WTPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 040
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 11.3N 117.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 117.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 12.1N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 12.8N 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.3N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 13.5N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 13.8N 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 14.0N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.2N 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 11.5N 117.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTHWEST OF
MANILA, PHILLIPINES. HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.
//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 40//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTHWEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, A
TIGHTLY CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN HALVES OF THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A RECENT INCREASE IN
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY, A 05/1208Z SSMIS IMAGE, AND PGTW AND RJTD
FIX POSITIONS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 26W IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF A COL REGION
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGES CENTERED TO THE EAST AND WEST.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS CURRENTLY WEAK (10 TO 15 KNOTS), AND
RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD WITH A
STRONG POLEWARD CHANNEL CONTINUING TO TAP INTO THE STRONG
WESTERLIES. TY 26W IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN LOBE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS
SLOWLY APPROACHING THE COL REGION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 26W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN
STR TOWARDS THE COL. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COL REGION AFTER
TAU 24, FORWARD TRACK MOTION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.
BY TAU 48, TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND TAKE ON
AN ERRATIC MOTION. DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING A COHERENT OR CONSISTENT
TRACK. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE
TO FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, BUT
BY TAU 72 A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN AS OCEAN HEAT CONTENT
DECREASES, VWS INCREASES, AND A NORTHEAST MONSOON SURGE BEGINS
TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE STRONG
NORTHEAST MONSOON SURGE AND REMAIN IN A VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL COL REGION. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LOOPING MOTION. DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF
MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERY WEAK STEERING PATTERN, THE CURRENT
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS TO KEEP TRACK SPEEDS SLOW AND WESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SPREAD AFTER TAU
24, RANGING FROM AN UNLIKELY WBAR SOLUTION RECURVING THE SYSTEM INTO
THE STRONG WESTERLIES TO A LOOPING THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
INDICATED BY NGPS, GFS, AND ECMWF. THE OFFICIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLOW TRACK SPEEDS
INDICATING QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST AND A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE,
TRACK CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
this is truly heartbreaking to read! christmas is coming and many will never be the same...
