Texas Winter 2012-2013

[CaptinCrunch]

I will say that with ZERO snow pack in the northen plains and ground temps crazy warm that this won't be a super big cold spell. But, this is only the beginning of the polar train of fronts that will now be coming down, each one putting down snow across the northern states and rockies that will start to stay around. In time and I mean by early Jan we here in Northern TX will strart getting the chances of a winter storm of some sort.

[Ntxw]

Latest numbers for the next front on Monday from the GFS (Sunday for the northern half).

DFW - High 44 Low 29 (Remains in the 40s much of next week except one or two days where it could rise to low 50s)

Austin - High 49 Low 32 (Mid 50s rest of the week)

Houston -Temps fall on Monday to 47 low 36 (mid to upper 50s rest of the work week)



Good job to Portastorm for calling the pattern change last week

Edit: Someone may have mentioned this, but the latest Euro shows a small chance at snow flurries for West and parts of North Texas

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Latest numbers for the next front on Monday from the GFS (Sunday for the northern half).

DFW - High 44 Low 29 (Remains in the 40s much of next week except one or two days where it could rise to low 50s)

Austin - High 49 Low 32 (Mid 50s rest of the week)

Houston -Temps fall on Monday to 47 low 36 (mid to upper 50s rest of the work week)



Good job to Portastorm for calling the pattern change last week

Edit: Someone may have mentioned this, but the latest Euro shows a small chance at snow flurries for West and parts of North Texas

I saw that! The 12Z GFS and ECMWF are both looking slightly better for light snow/flurries for parts of north Texas & parts of Oklahoma. It'll be interesting to see if these trends continue; however, this is just my opinion, nothing official.

[Ntxw]

Euro also is a bit colder than the GFS, low to mid 20s (25 metroplex) and teens in the panhandle and Oklahoma. Everyone is same ratio, just take a few degrees off the GFS. Wouldn't surprise me if the GFS were to get a little colder the next few runs as the air mass makes a move starting tomorrow.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Euro also is a bit colder than the GFS, low to mid 20s (25 metroplex) and teens in the panhandle and Oklahoma. Everyone is same ratio, just take a few degrees off the GFS. Wouldn't surprise me if the GFS were to get a little colder the next few runs as the air mass makes a move starting tomorrow.

Good news all around!
What are your thoughts one the JMA? I know it can be super unreliable a lot!

[Ntxw]

Good news all around!
What are your thoughts one the JMA? I know it can be super unreliable a lot!

My source for the JMA hasn't updated. I don't know what the latest information is from it


FW awhile ago

NEW MODELS HAVE ROLLED IN AND WILL RE-EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE OR LESS RAINFALL AND COLDER TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE... AND ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF WINTER WEATHER OVER THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Good news all around!
What are your thoughts one the JMA? I know it can be super unreliable a lot!

My source for the JMA hasn't updated. I don't know what the latest information is from it


FW awhile ago

NEW MODELS HAVE ROLLED IN AND WILL RE-EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE OR LESS RAINFALL AND COLDER TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE... AND ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF WINTER WEATHER OVER THE NORTHWEST
COUNTIES ON LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

Here is the latest at 120 hours. Thoughts?!
http://imageshack.us/a/img405/8315/imagepsj.jpg

[Ntxw]

Here is the latest at 120 hours. Thoughts?!
http://imageshack.us/a/img405/8315/imagepsj.jpg

If that were to verify could be a dusting in the NW half. I know the Canadian has been trying to also, there will be mid and upper level moisture, we'll have to wait and see if the low levels dry too quickly. But if anything does fall, profile says it is a deep cold air mass so evaporative cooling

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Here is the latest at 120 hours. Thoughts?!
http://imageshack.us/a/img405/8315/imagepsj.jpg

If that were to verify could be a dusting in the NW half. I know the Canadian has been trying to also, there will be mid and upper level moisture, we'll have to wait and see if the low levels dry too quickly. But if anything does fall, profile says it is a deep cold air mass so evaporative cooling

It'll be interesting to see what the 00Z runs show tonight. It'll also be interesting to see what what the NAM starts showing since it'll get into this timeframe soon. If I'm correct, I don't think this system has even been sampled yet, has it?

[Ntxw]

It'll be interesting to see what the 00Z runs show tonight. It'll also be interesting to see what what the NAM starts showing since it'll get into this timeframe soon. If I'm correct, I don't think this system has even been sampled yet, has it?

It is forecasted to crash ashore in British Columbia tonight and dive south. So that would be a good assumption.

[wxman57]

Here are a couple of meteograms from the 12Z GFS (Houston & DFW). There really isn't any significant post-frontal moisture to produce any frozen precip in north TX. It just looks like a moderately cold frontal passage on Sunday afternoon up there. Temps down to the upper 20s or 30 are not much out of the ordinary for the second week of December in Dallas, but it will feel like a big change compared to recent weeks.

[Portastorm]

Euro also is a bit colder than the GFS, low to mid 20s (25 metroplex) and teens in the panhandle and Oklahoma. Everyone is same ratio, just take a few degrees off the GFS. Wouldn't surprise me if the GFS were to get a little colder the next few runs as the air mass makes a move starting tomorrow.

The other thing of interest from the 12z Euro op run today is how it lags upper-level energy behind the trough early next week. HPC mentions this in its extended discussion today. The UKMet showed this scenario yesterday but was tossed out as an outlier. Perhaps the script for early next week is not written entirely yet. It may not be quite so dry as we think right now.

I still don't think anyone in Texas but the Panhandle and Red River counties would see any flurries or snow ... but it's going to be feel very cold compared to the recent blow torch temps and in terms of seasonal temps, we'll see high temps some 10-15 degrees below normal for a few days. Hey, I'll take it. It's a start.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The 18Z NAM is getting closer to the timeframe and I'm satisfied with what's it showing around 84 hours; I'm ready for the 00Z tonight.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

From FW NWS:
THE AMPLITUDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL
RUNS. THE UPPER TROUGH COMES IN SHARPER AND MORE POSITIVELY TILTED WITH
LESS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE AXIS AND MORE ENERGY PASSING
OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING. THIS S/W ENERGY
ALSO ARRIVES WITH MORE FRONTOGENESIS /GFS AND ECMWF/ AND MORE
MOISTURE WITHIN THIS LAYER. SINCE THIS LAYER FALLS WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION WILL RESULT. THIS
POTENTIAL IS NOT WITHOUT PROBLEMS...AS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS LOW...WARM ADVECTION NEAR 700 MB IS ABOUT NIL AND THE
700MB TROUGH AXIS WILL BE ARRIVING AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME WHICH
WILL SHUT OFF LIFT. SINCE OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT PATTERN
SETUP IS LOW WITH THIS WAVE AND WE WILL RE-EVALUATE THE WINTER
WEATHER POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. IF THIS PATTERN
DEVELOPS OR BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT...THEN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED TO CONVEY OUR THOUGHTS AND EXPECTATION OF
THE EVENT.

[somethingfunny]

And even more excitingly.....

[TeamPlayersBlue]

NWS now saying 31 degrees on Monday here.

[Ntxw]

For verification purposes, a week or so ago I posted data on models showing sudden warming in the stratosphere and that the -AO tank coinciding. Well here is the latest graph depicting that it indeed occur since then. Sharp rise from the very cold vortex being disturbed.

30mb (I like to use it as the average between top and bottom layer)

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Interesting graph. A few things to note.

Look how well below normal it was prior to the spike.

It appears that the spikes occur around the same temperature according to previous years. (Notice the spike in Feb. 2011, that was a major cold outbreak.)

Notice how above normal the temps were last year in the heart of winter.

[Ntxw]

0z NAM is trying to bring a surface reflection of a coastal low that throws back moisture into the cold. But again this is the long range nam and should be taken with a grain of salt. Would not be an unusual thing for these kind of events though.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

here's hoping (that they make it there):

INCOMING.........SNOWBALLFIGHT!!"o´¯`❄.¸(░)`O.¸¸.¸.o´¯`❄. ¸ (░) `O. ❄。 ¨¯`*✲ ´*。. ❄¨¯`*✲。❄*´*。 ✲O. ¸¸. ¸. o´¯`o. ¸(░) `O. ¸¸. ✲. ¸. o´¯`¸. o´¯`❄¸ (░) `O. ¸¸.¸. ✲´¯`o. ¸ (░) `O. ¸❄。 `O.¸¸. ¸. o´¯`❄。 ¨¯`*✲.... ¸. o´¯`o. ¸ (░) `O.¸¸. ¸. o´¯`❄. ¸ (░) ´*。 ✲´*。.❄¨¯`*✲。❄*~*~*~*~SPLAT~*~*~*~Start of Snowball Fight 2012 and ..............

Good Luck. I got you, so you can't get me back !!
ha ha ha ...