Texas Winter 2012-2013

BrokenGlassRepublicn · #541 Postby **BrokenGlassRepublicn** » Thu Dec 06, 2012 10:36 pm

Based on timing, McCauley said we could see a true "blue norther" come in on Sunday afternoon. That could be fun!

BrokenGlassRepublicn · #542 Postby **BrokenGlassRepublicn** » Thu Dec 06, 2012 10:37 pm

Based on timing, McCauley said we could see a true "blue norther" come in on Sunday afternoon. That could be fun!

GRAYSONCO.WX · #543 Postby **GRAYSONCO.WX** » Thu Dec 06, 2012 10:57 pm

Wow, the 00Z GFS is looking pretty good for light snow on Monday for north Texas and parts of Oklahoma. This run continues to hold the energy back and then move it across north Texas on Monday. It appears that the shortwave is more distinct and pulls up more moisture. This is my opinion and not official. Anyone else seeing this?

#544 Postby **Ntxw** » Thu Dec 06, 2012 11:12 pm

Anyone notice how long the GFS keeps the 850mb ~<0c isotherm over north Texas? At least 40+ hours! It will be interesting to see these shortwaves that traverses after the cold air is settled next week and whether they can find moisture sources.

GRAYSONCO.WX · #545 Postby **GRAYSONCO.WX** » Thu Dec 06, 2012 11:15 pm

Ntxw wrote:Anyone notice how long the GFS keeps the 850mb ~<0c isotherm over north Texas? At least 40+ hours! It will be interesting to see these shortwaves that traverses after the cold air is settled next week and whether they can find moisture sources.

Yes! Interesting indeed. Notice the Monday shortwave looks more promising too?

iorange55 · #546 Postby **iorange55** » Thu Dec 06, 2012 11:17 pm

Ntxw wrote:Anyone notice how long the GFS keeps the 850mb ~<0c isotherm over north Texas? At least 40+ hours! It will be interesting to see these shortwaves that traverses after the cold air is settled next week and whether they can find moisture sources.

Yeah, this front is definitely going to pack a punch. I was just expecting a strong cold front to come through and knock down temps to normal, but I certainly wouldn't mind a little frozen surprise. :cheesy:

I can't wait to watch it blow through on Sunday!

#547 Postby **Ntxw** » Thu Dec 06, 2012 11:20 pm

GRAYSONCO.WX wrote:Yes! Interesting indeed. Notice the Monday shortwave looks more promising too?

It is a good trend. I know weatherguy425 has been looking out for some snow in Lubbock so I'm sure he'll be happy about this run. Lets cheer on the JMA to influence the other models :wink:

#548 Postby **HockeyTx82** » Thu Dec 06, 2012 11:23 pm

weatherguy425 · #549 Postby **weatherguy425** » Thu Dec 06, 2012 11:25 pm

Ntxw wrote:
GRAYSONCO.WX wrote:Yes! Interesting indeed. Notice the Monday shortwave looks more promising too?

It is a good trend. I know weatherguy425 has been looking out for some snow in Lubbock so I'm sure he'll be happy about this run. Lets cheer on the JMA to influence the other models

Haha, out here it's never a question of "Is it cold enough?", it's "Will there be enough moisture present?". However, the trends are definitely in my favor. A moist EPAC possibly being tapped (if it can REALLY dig), this coastal low throwing moisture back into Texas, and the upper dynamics associated with this trough all appear to be looking up!

#550 Postby **Ntxw** » Thu Dec 06, 2012 11:41 pm

FW

WE ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING AT THE 00Z MODEL DATA THAT IS COMING IN
AND ARE BEGINNING TO NOTICE SOME CONSISTENCY BETWEEN PREVIOUS RUNS
WITH REGARDS TO POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY. IF WE
PERFECT PROG THIS FORECAST IT WOULD POINT TO SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS SOMETIME MONDAY MORNING. LIMITED
MOISTURE MAY STILL BE FACTOR...SO WILL AWAIT ALL SOLUTIONS BEFORE
MAKING ANY DRASTIC CHANGES TO THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

#551 Postby **HockeyTx82** » Thu Dec 06, 2012 11:57 pm

Lots of people viewing the board right now. Off to bed. Wake me up if anything exciting comes in on a model run. :wink:

aggiecutter · #552 Postby **aggiecutter** » Fri Dec 07, 2012 12:02 am

Joe Haynes (Channel 3 out of Shreveport) said there might be a wintry mix for the Texarkana area on Monday. We shall see.

Turtle · #553 Postby **Turtle** » Fri Dec 07, 2012 12:13 am

aggiecutter wrote:Joe Haynes (Channel 3 out of Shreveport) said there might be a wintry mix for the Texarkana area on Monday. We shall see.

Hey I remember seeing your posts last year! Even though I'm kinda close to you (Marshall in E. TX) we get like x5 less snow than you guys.

I wonder what temps Joe Haynes is forecasting now. I checked this evening and I think it was upper 40s or 50s for highs.

#554 Postby **orangeblood** » Fri Dec 07, 2012 12:21 am

Well the Canadian is jumping on board now as well, hangs energy back even further west....models are starting to converge on some sort of winter event on Monday

#555 Postby **Ntxw** » Fri Dec 07, 2012 12:29 am

Ukmet doesn't go out (that's available) more than 72 hours for the precip charts, but it's trying to develop a middle Texas coast low.

#556 Postby **gpsnowman** » Fri Dec 07, 2012 12:37 am

What a wonderful turn of events unfolding tonight. Hopefully this is just the first of many chances this winter. Cant wait to feel that wind and cold. I wonder if the rest of December(Christmas) looks promising. Hope so.

#557 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Dec 07, 2012 7:35 am

Wow ... NWSFO Austin/San Antonio sure dropped their high temp forecast for Monday. Progged high now 47! Up until this forecast, the progged high was low 50s.

Pattern change a-comin'!! :cheesy:

#558 Postby **Rgv20** » Fri Dec 07, 2012 8:45 am

Here the forecast high for Tuesday is 58!

Yesterday the forecast high for Tuesday was upper 60s..

#559 Postby **orangeblood** » Fri Dec 07, 2012 8:57 am

Good discussion out of the Fort Worth NWS office last night regarding the possible winter weather event later this weekend:

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DROP INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK IS FARTHER WEST
THAN MOST MODELS SHOWED THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. HOWEVER...FROM HERE
THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAST THE TROUGH WILL EJECT EAST. ONCE
AGAIN...THE GFS AND NAM ARE THE FASTEST WITH THE TROUGH MOVING
EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY MORNING...AND THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST
WITH THE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING.
DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...THE MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON A CHANCE
FOR SNOW ACROSS PART OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.

THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NORTH ON THIS NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. HOWEVER...NOW THE
FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS AND NAM ARE ALSO SUPPORTIVE
OF SNOW...BUT THE OPERATIONAL RUNS ARE NOT OUTPUTTING ANY QPF. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION
SHOW DEEP MOISTURE UP TO 400 OR 500 MB WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. IN ADDITION...THE ENTIRE SOUNDING IS BELOW
0 DEGREES CELSIUS. WITH THIS CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
ENOUGH TONIGHT TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND NORTH
OF A CISCO TO DALLAS TO BONHAM LINE AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY THROUGH
NOON. THIS AREA IS ALONG THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WHERE LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
WITH TEMPERATURES AT THE GROUND FALLING BELOW FREEZING IN THAT
AREA...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES. FOR NOW...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW HAS BEEN HELD AT
20 PERCENT DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DISTURBANCE. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...THE AREA COULD BE EXPANDED SOUTH AND EAST
SOME. AT THIS TIME...FORECAST SOUNDINGS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
HIGHLIGHTED AREA DO NOT SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE AND THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WAS TOO WARM.

#560 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Dec 07, 2012 9:42 am

Interesting to note that the 0z and 6z NAM suggest a smattering of light snow and/or ice pellets in and along a line from Texarkana into the Hill Country at the end of run (78 to 84 hours).

Should be an interesting 24-48 hours as we follow model guidance and see what changes, if any, develop.