Category 3 bopha! and strengthening to a category 4?
WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 048
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 116.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 116.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.5N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.2N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.4N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.6N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.6N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.2N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 12.3N 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 116.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 29
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.//
NNNN
PROGNOSTIC REASONINGWDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 48//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MAINTAINS AN 11NM EYE. A 071145Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION COMPLETELY WRAPPING AROUND
THE EYE AND A SMALL BANDING FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 110
KNOTS BASED UPON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS FROM KNES, PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TY 26W HAS MAINTAINED A POINT SOURCE ANTI-
CYCLONE OVER ITSELF WHICH IS PROVIDING AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND IS
BEING ENHANCED BY A STRONG JET MAX TO THE NORTHEAST LOCATED SOUTH
OF JAPAN. LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES TO
ACT UPON THE SYSTEM. TY 26W IS TRACKING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FORECASTED
INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED DUE TO THE CONTINUED RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.
B. TY 26W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTH TO NORTHEAST ALONG
THE AXIS OF THE STR TO THE EAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU
36, THE STEERING WILL BECOME VERY WEAK AS A COL BETWEEN TWO DEEP-
LAYERED STRS DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. BY TAU 48, THE WESTERN LOBE
OF THE STR WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE, ALONG WITH
THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS, DRIVING THE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST, PICKING UP SPEED. INTENSITIES WILL INCREASE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS TY 26W CONTINUES TO HAVE A FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 24, TY 26W WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 26W WILL PROCEED SOUTHWEST PICKING UP SPEED
AS IT TRACKS ALONG WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS A SURGE IN THE MONSOON
FLOW BRINGS IN COLD DRY CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR SLOW WEAKENING TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODELS NOW ALL
SHOW A SLOW LOOP IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WITH A LARGE VARIANCE IN
THE EXTENT AND THE TIMING OF THE LOOP. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST
LIES CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 24, BUT FAVORS THE
NOGAPS AND ECMWF SOLUTION, DUE TO CONSENSUS BEING PULLED NORTH BY
WBAR. DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, LARGE VARIANCE IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS, AND UNDETERMINED INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON
SURGE, OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
. When I was writing this I first was going to write 120 knots for appearance but since then it looks very close to category 5 status once again. I was going to mock that raw T number from ADT of 7.0 (hours ago) but now it certainly fits!
.
killer storm bopha strengthens yet again to a category 3!
