WPAC: BOPHA - Remnants

[CrazyC83]

This would be a worst case scenario too...a Category 3 storm hitting Manila from the most vulnerable direction perhaps? The storm surge would be catastrophic!

[galaxy401]

I can't even imagine if there's a storm like this in the GOM, in December

that is why west pacific typhoons are the greatest and strongest tropical cyclones on earth!

And that's why there is quite a bit of destruction in the Philippines and other areas every year from these monsters. Don't get cocky.

[CrazyC83]

I can't even imagine if there's a storm like this in the GOM, in December

that is why west pacific typhoons are the greatest and strongest tropical cyclones on earth!

And that's why there is quite a bit of destruction in the Philippines and other areas every year from these monsters. Don't get cocky.

The Philippines are more vulnerable than just about anywhere on earth. They usually get several hits each year, if not numerous hits.

[supercane4867]

Bopha finally weakens, hopefully it won't ever strengthen again

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 957.5mb/104.6kt

[Ptarmigan]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/products/storms/2012WP26/1KMSRVIS/2012WP26_1KMSRVIS_201212070857.GIF

despite a moderate environment, bopha has gone through super explosive intensification...unbelievable for a storm in the south china sea and in december! when was the last time we had a strong typhoon in december in the SCS???

based on this imagery, well defined warm eye with a very cold eyewall and surrounding shield, bopha peaked at 145 knots!!!

Bopha looks definitely strong on satellite. The South China Sea is not really warm.

[dexterlabio]

it sure looks like a sheared typhoon right now but the core is still hanging in there.

[dexterlabio]

well if good news is that Bopha starting to wane a bit, the bad news could be this moving in a more northeast direction right now. some model trackers now show the possibility of a direct landfall, and even if it would only clip the western sections of Luzon, they would still probably get the same rains that battered the southern islands.

[supercane4867]

Bopha is under 30kts of increasing windshear as it approaches the zonal flow, could be sheared apart soon

[supercane4867]

Well intact inner core, wonder how long it can hold

[euro6208]

weakening but still a powerful category 3 typhoon...

WTPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 050
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 16.9N 116.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 116.9E


REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 117.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z
IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.//
NNNN

PROGNOSTIC REASONING

WDPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 50//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
105 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
THE SAME REPORTING AGENCIES. TY 26W HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK POLEWARD
INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSIVE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TY 26W HAS ONLY WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SMALL, RAGGED EYE. AN UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL ORIENTED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE STRONG VENTING.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 26W WILL CONTINUE TO TURN EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. INCREASING
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. THEREAFTER, AS THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD
FOLLOWING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF WBAR AND GFS, IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK
FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72. WBAR DEPICTS AN UNREALISTIC NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN, WHILE THE
GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING A HIGHER INTENSITY AND CROSSING
INTO NORTHERN LUZON UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP LAYER FLOW. THIS
TRACK IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS A HIGHER INTENSITY THAN
FORECAST IN THE EARLY TAUS, BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND ALLOW IT TURN TURN BACK
INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH CHINA SEA BEFORE IT CAN MAKE LANDFALL IN
LUZON. GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE AND HIGH TRACK
DEPENDENCE ON THE INTENSITY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 IS
LOW.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND
WEAKEN DUE TO ONGOING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST
GIVEN EXPECTED LOOPING MOTION AND A SPREAD IN ALONG-TRACK FORECAST
SPEEDS AMONG CONSENSUS MODEL MEMBERS. EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[galaxy401]

It's going to slow down when it gets close to the Philippines again...Hopefully it dissipates quickly as it's bad enough over there from the first landfall...

[Cyclenall]

WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 048
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 116.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

*Cut*

THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST
LIES CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 24, BUT FAVORS THE
NOGAPS AND ECMWF SOLUTION, DUE TO CONSENSUS BEING PULLED NORTH BY
WBAR. DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, LARGE VARIANCE IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS, AND UNDETERMINED INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON
SURGE, OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

I'd say this is a understatement, more like "extremely low".

This has never happened before- A typhoon undergoing RI in the month of December at S.China Sea. Late-season storms tend to weaken and dissipate there before they even reach land. What a such amazing storm Bopha is!

That would be even more impressive if true.

despite a moderate environment, bopha has gone through super explosive intensification...unbelievable for a storm in the south china sea and in december! when was the last time we had a strong typhoon in december in the SCS???

based on this imagery, well defined warm eye with a very cold eyewall and surrounding shield, bopha peaked at 145 knots!!!

I wouldn't go that far at 145 knots at 2nd peak but I could see 135-140 knots max. Ironically, this time the agencies were too LOW with the intensity instead of too high when it made landfall IMO.

Right now I think its strength is around 100 knots but still very dangerous and flooding could be the main issue. It can't gain any more latitude and has to start turning due east and then dip. The outer rainbands are already looking to effect the northern Philippines!

This part of my post will focus on its first landfall and the main image from the NRL to show why I do not believe it was a category 5 at LF:



So this is the IR image at landfall (when the eye is halfway inland). Does this look like a category 5 to anyone?

Here is Hurricane Karl in the Atlantic during 2010:



45 minutes before this image it was rated as a 95 knot hurricane (Best track) which I still disagree with (how on earth is that 95 knots? Looks more like 140 knots to me). The maximum intensity according to the NHC on Karl was 110 knots which is well after this frame (6 hours). So if this was at LF, I would say it was near CAT5 strength instead of 95 knots but if you take Bopha's LF image compared to this, it looks like 60 knots. See the massive disparity now? Interestingly Dvorak was used I believe for the 6z time because recon couldn't make it at this specific frame but why would Dvorak show this around 95 knots but then Bopha's LF at 7.0 (140 knots or so)? Inconsistent....

[dexterlabio]

^I see your point now. I don't know with that IR image of Bopha if Dvorak estimates could even be made because the core was already inland. And I believe at that point, landfall ALREADY occured, and it is unfair to use that image as basis to describe the actual intensity as the eye started to hit land.

Also we can't compare Bopha's IR image with its eye inland, to Karl's image at such a distance away from land. That is not fair. At least we should find an image of Bopha with its eye still 30 kilometers offshore and use that for comparison. Regarding Karl, I also doubt if he still looked as impressive as that one with its eye inland...

And yeah, I remember Hurricane Karl and I personally think it was a high-end Cat4 at landfall. But I didn't manage to check on the damage assessments in Mexico after it made landfall to verify this.

[dexterlabio]

Another factor IMO that could have yielded high DT numbers for Bopha at landfall was the impressive over-all structure. It developed a strong feeder band to its north and had this look of a very strong tropical cyclone. It was NOT ONLY the eye but ALSO the banding structure that made it look much more intense than any other tropical systems prior to landfall since Megi.

That IR image of Bopha's eye inland still gives me the impression of a very intense typhoon...no way that it looks like a TS too.

[dexterlabio]

Going back to Bopha's present. at this rate, it looks like landfall will happen sooner.

[cycloneye]

The death toll continues to rise,now up to 459 and more than 500 are still missing.

http://www.ndrrmc.gov.ph/attachments/ar ... %201PM.pdf

[GCANE]

Wow, this is incredible. Just found out about.

Currently shooting a massive hot-tower right over the LLC.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 080857.GIF

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 081030.jpg

Frankly, this is a mystery to me.

OHC is minimal and no anti-cyclone.

Shear is about 30 knots.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 080600.GIF

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[dexterlabio]

^do hot towers indicate something? are these just random blowout of convection?

[dexterlabio]

i don't know why but i can't believe this is a typhoon, really. maybe the actual size of this storm is now relatively small so estimating the intensity right now is different.


Multi-agency forecast tracks:

[GCANE]

^do hot towers indicate something? are these just random blowout of convection?

Its a sign of rapid intensification, especially when they are very close to the COC.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQsKusqMdUU[/youtube]