Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

December 4 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

 
A high pressure system over the northern Caribbean coupled with a surface trough across the central Caribbean will continue to influence weather conditions across the island.

This will result in partly cloudy conditions with isolated showers mainly over northeastern parishes.

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

December 4 2012
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers over northern parishes.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:24 a.m.
 5:31 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:29 a.m.
 5:36 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:30 a.m.
 5:37 p.m.
 
 

 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST TUE DEC 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED EFFECTS EXITING
THE REGION. SHORTWAVE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OF THE U.S. WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN ACROSS THE AREA.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE HIGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY PROVIDING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH 80-90 KNOT JET TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.

BULK OF MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SHOULD REMAIN
SO THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...PATCH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CAN STILL BE EXPECTED MAINLY AT NIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

MARINE...OPTED TO PUT OUT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY THIS MORNING DUE BREAKING
WAVES OF 9-12 FEET IN NORTHEAST SWELLS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ISOLD PASSING SHRA ACROSS THE AREA. WIND WILL PREVAIL FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS...GUSTY ACROSS THE USVI/BVI.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 82 77 83 / 30 30 40 40
STT 77 84 78 84 / 20 20 40 40

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather in general will prevail today with only some showers moving from the northeast.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
426 AM AST WED DEC 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND
FLATTEN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. HOWEVER...UNDER THE PREVAILING
NORTHEAST TRADE WIND FLOW...EXPECT THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND EVENING HOURS. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE QUICKLY EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHRA WILL INDUCE FEW
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS TJSJ AND TIST TODAY. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TJSJ 05/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND
10K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HOWEVER...SEAS OF UP TO 8 FEET IN NORTHEAST
SWELLS AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS AND ALL PASSAGES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 77 85 76 / 50 50 50 40
STT 82 81 82 81 / 40 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

December 5 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

December 5 2012
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy with isolated showers over northern parishes, mainly fair elsewhere.

Afternoon: Expect isolated showers mainly over northern parishes.

Tonight: Partly cloudy becoming fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:25 a.m.
 5:31 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:30 a.m.
 5:36 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:31 a.m.
 5:37 p.m.
 
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST WED DEC 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT EAST AND
FLATTEN ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT
THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY.

THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IN THE BIG PICTURE NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE
PAST FEW DAYS. WE STILL EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS UNDER A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS MEANS POSSIBLE PASSING
SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LOCAL WATERS. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS MOVING
IN BUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE A FEW PASSING SHOWERS. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.45 INCHES
ON THURSDAY BUT GO DOWN TO ABOUT 1 INCH ON FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING TO ALMOST 1.5 INCHES FOR THE WEEKEND. SO AT THIS TIME
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE SHOWERY THAN TOMORROW OR
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHRA WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS TJSJ...TIST...TJBQ THROUGH 06Z. A PREDOMINANT NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY IN PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO 8
FEET. THE SAN JUAN BUOY REPORTED SEAS OF UP TO 7.5 FEET WITH A 10
SECOND PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 72 84 / 50 50 40 30
STT 81 82 81 82 / 40 40 30 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
419 AM AST THU DEC 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MOVE FURTHER EASTWARD TODAY.
RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...
AND ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY...WHERE
IT WILL HELP INDUCE A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE NEXT WEEK. THE
WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROF NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARDS ACROSS
THE REGION BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP
TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG NORTHEASTERLIES ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS WILL CONTINUE UNDER A DOMINANT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS
WILL RESULT IN PASSING SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE LOCAL WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AREA STILL
HOWEVER EXPECTED AND WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. FORECAST PWAT VALUES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.45 INCHES TODAY...WITH EVEN LESSER VALUES
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT INCREASE ABOVE
1.50 OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY DRIER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
ONLY QUICK PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LIMITED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE ISLANDS DURING THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHRA WILL PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS TJSJ...TJBQ AND TIST UNTIL AT LEAST 14Z. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TJSJ 06/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED AN EAST
NORTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 10K
FEET...BECOMING WEST NORTHWESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

MARINE...LATEST LOCAL BUOY DATA AND THAT NORTH OF THE AREA NOW
SUGGESTS THAT NORTHEAST SWELLS HAVE PEAKED AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE. WAVE HEIGHT WERE NOW BETWEEN 7 AND 8 FEET WITH PERIODS
BETWEEN 10 AND TO 11 SECONDS. THE PULSE OF NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TODAY. AS A RESULT...A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAIN IN EFFECT AT LEAST
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING...RESPECTIVELY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE COASTAL FORECAST AND STATEMENTS
FOR MORE DETAILS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 84 73 / 40 40 30 30
STT 85 73 86 74 / 30 30 20 40

[cycloneye]

December 6 Jamaica forecast:

A surface trough across the south-central Caribbean will continue to influence weather conditions across the island over the next day or two.

This will result in partly cloudy conditions with occasional showers over most parishes.

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

December 6 2012
 
Significant Feature: Surface trough over the central Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy with isolated showers.

Afternoon: Expect scattered showers over sections of most parishe.

Tonight: Partly cloudy.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 30C (86F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:25 a.m.
 5:31 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:30 a.m.
 5:36 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:31 a.m.
 5:37 p.m.
 
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST THU DEC 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL EXPECTED TO EXIT THE
EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND AWAY OF THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH SURF
ADVISORY EXTENDED UNTIL 10 PM AST THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTED THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY...MOSTLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS A FEW
SHOWERS THAT POPPED UP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. THIS
GENERAL PATTERN IS PASSING SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

EVEN THOUGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA UNDER AN EAST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FOR THE
WEEKEND SO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR THE
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE PATTERN IS SUGGESTED
BY THE GFS MODEL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING SHRA MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE
AREAS IN AND AROUND THE TERMINALS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...VCSH WAS PUT IN TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTY BUT TEMPO SHRA IS POSSIBLE. WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FROM THE E-NE AND DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...ONCE AGAIN INCREASING
AFTER 07/12Z TO ABOUT 10 KTS FROM THE E-NE WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...LOCAL SAN JUAN BUOY IS REPORTING SEAS OF OVER 7 FEET AT
10 SECONDS...THEREFORE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS WAS EXTENDED UNTIL
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 73 84 / 40 30 30 40
STT 73 86 74 86 / 30 20 40 40

[cycloneye]

November climate report for Puerto Rico/U.S Virgin Islands:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=nov2012cr

[Macrocane]

Good weather is expected for Central America in the next few days:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
208 PM EST THU DEC 06 2012

DISCUSSION FROM DEC 06/00UTC: AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SUBEQUATORIAL
RIDGE CENTERS OVER FRENCH GUYANA AND EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA INTO SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. TO THE NORTH...A TROUGH HAS
REACHED MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE AND EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING ACTIVITY TO
ITS EAST ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA/CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH
IS TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND EXIT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
36-48 HRS. IN THE MEANTIME...IT WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS IN INTERACTION WITH A LOW-LEVEL INDUCED TROUGH.
EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS TO PEAK AT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH 36 HRS. THE LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
36-60 HRS WHEN EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. ACROSS CUBA...EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS...DECREASING AFTERWARDS.

TO THE SOUTHEAST...A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS WELL ESTABLISHED
ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. YET...ECHO TRAINING OF SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE CELLS IS STILL INTERACTING WITH OROGRAPHY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THROUGH 36 HRS...EXPECTING
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-30MM.
LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO. BY 36-60
HRS...EXPECTING SOME ENHANCEMENT IN RESPONSE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER
DYNAMIC FORCING. THIS COULD INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON DAY 03 AS
SUBSIDENCE STRENGTHENS. A REGION OF CONCERN IS JAMAICA. AN
ENHANCED REGION OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN IS SLOWLY MIGRATING NORTHWARD UNDER INFLUENCE OF UPPER
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. ONCE THE TROUGH APPROACHES...IT WILL
PROVIDE BETTER DYNAMICS AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A FEW
DEEP CELLS MAY AFFECT JAMAICA LEADING TO ACCUMULATIONS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM BY 36-60 HRS. SOME COULD ALSO
AFFECT THE HAITIAN PENINSULA LEADING TO SIMILAR. BY 60-84
HRS...ACTIVITY ACROSS JAMAICA WILL PERSIST BUT WEAKEN...LEADING TO
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.

TO THE EAST ACROSS THE FRENCH ANTILLES...SHALLOW CONVECTION IS
BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER TROUGH EXITING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. AS REGION OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MIGRATES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD...STILL EXPECTING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM. FURTHER
SOUTH...A SHEAR LINE IN INTERACTION WITH THE ITCZ IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN GUYANA/NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF
20-30MM.

TO THE WEST...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OF MOST REGIONS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF NICARAGUA. MARGINAL ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CAMPECHE AND NORTHERN HONDURAS WILL LEAD TO LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 36 HRS...TO DECREASE AFTERWARDS. A REGION OF
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN COSTA
RICA/BOCAS DEL TORO IN PANAMA...WHERE EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM THROUGH 60 HRS. A FEW ISOLATED
DEEP CELLS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PACIFIC BASIN OF COSTA
RICA...PRODUCING SIMILAR ACCUMULATIONS. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE IN INTERACTION WITH OROGRAPHY. ACROSS COLOMBIA...THE
PACIFIC ITCZ ENTERS THE CONTINENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CHOCO.
YET...CONVECTION PATTERN IS NOT AS ACTIVE AS DURING PREVIOUS
WEEKS. EXPECTING HEAVIEST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA WITH
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ORDER OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.

ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
GALDAMEZ...DGOA-MARN (EL SALVADOR)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A mainly good weekend weatherwise is expected in the NE Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST FRI DEC 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY
AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NOW ACROSS CUBA...WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
TODAY AND APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE WEST BY SATURDAY. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
TODAY... AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL WESTERN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL AID IN TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THEREFORE
FURTHER INCREASE THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED INCREASING
OVERALL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY A FEW AREAS OF SHALLOW
MOISTURE WAS OBSERVED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH VERY LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION SO FAR REACHING THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE ISLANDS. PREVIOUS
TJSJ 07/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING AS WELL AS THE SATELLITE DERIVED BLENDED
TPW...SUGGESTS CONTINUED DECLINE IN PWAT VALUES. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO
SUGGEST DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR PERIODS OF QUICK
PASSING LOW TO MID LEVEL TRADE WIND CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. WITH THAT SAID...
EXPECT A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS TO CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
AND EAST UNDER THE PREVAILING MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ENHANCED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
MAINLY IN THE WEST INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
FORESEE NO WIDESPREAD OR LONG DURATION CONVECTION AT THIS TIME...AS
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH
INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA AS DRIER AND STABLE AIR WILL INFILTRATE
THE AREA. EARLIER TJSJ 07/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATED AN EAST
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW BTW 10 TO 20 KNOTS FM SFC-FL100 KFT...
THEN BCMG WESTERLY AND INCREASING UP TO 75 KT NR FL450.


&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES AS NORTHEAST SWELLS CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...HIGH SURF ADVISORY
WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM AST. IN ADDITION...SEAS DIMINISHED
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND FOR THAT REASON THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 75 84 74 / 30 30 40 20
STT 85 74 86 75 / 20 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

December 7 Jamaica forecast:

A surface trough across the south-central Caribbean will continue to influence weather conditions across the island over the next day or two.

This will result in partly cloudy conditions with occasional showers over most parishes.

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

December 7 2012
 
Significant Feature: Surface trough over the central Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy with isolated showers.

Afternoon: Expect scattered showers over sections of most parishes.

Tonight: Partly cloudy.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 30C (86F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:26 a.m.
 5:32 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:31 a.m.
 5:37 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:32 a.m.
 5:38 p.m.
 
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST FRI DEC 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MEAN TROF PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SAT WITH
GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS/BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED SUN
THRU WED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO HIGH CLOUDS PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED
OVER ANY OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. VERY DRY CONDITIONS AT MID LEVEL OF
THE ATMOSPHERE IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUD COVER...LIMITED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. LATEST 12Z TJSJ SOUNDING
CAME WITH PW VALUES OF ONLY 1.24 INCHES AND LATEST SATELITE IMAGES
SHOWS THE CONTINUATION OF DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED
SATURDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. ALSO...PW VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR 1.9
INCHES AND THETAE VALUES AT 700MB RISE TO 335K.
THEREFORE...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL DRY SIGNIFICANTLY
AFTER SUNDAY...WITH A DRIER AIR MASS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST. IN GENERAL...IN THE LONG TERM...NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN150 WITH PERHAPS SOME VIRGA OR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
BUT NO RESTRICTIONS. WINDS WILL DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET BUT PICK UP
AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 75 84 / 0 20 20 20
STT 74 85 77 86 / 10 10 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST SAT DEC 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CUBA AND
JAMAICA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE TO FRESH EAST
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A 70 KT JETSTREAM NORTH OF THE REGION IS ENHANCING
THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...PROVIDING ABUNDANT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS
THE FA TODAY. HOWEVER...DUE TO A GENERALLY DRY AIR AT LOWER AND
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
DETECTED ONLY LIGHT ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS
AND ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO. NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS
DETECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. COMPUTER MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA THIS
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS. TJSJ 08/00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A PWAT VALUE OF 1.33
INCHES. THIS VALUE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 1.80
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS VALUE OF PWAT DO NOT SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD PCPN...BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO. PWAT
VALUES WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY BY MONDAY AND AFTERWARD AS A VERY DRY
AND STABLE AIR MASS AT ALL LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE ENCOMPASS THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONT THRU SUNDAY WITH ISOLD MVFR IN ISOLD/SCT SHRA.
LLVL E WIND 10 TO 20 KT BLW 7 KFT...LGT/VRBL TO 14 KFT...THEN
STRONGER WESTERLIES ABV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 84 74 / 30 20 30 20
STT 85 77 86 75 / 10 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

December 8 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

December 8 2012
 
Significant Feature: Surface trough over the central Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy with isolated showers.

Afternoon: Expect scattered showers over sections of most parishes.

Tonight: Partly cloudy.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 30C (86F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:27 a.m.
 5:32 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:32 a.m.
 5:37 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:33 a.m.
 5:38 p.m.
 
 


[cycloneye]

Good weather in general for the next few days is expected in the NE Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST SAT DEC 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLC INTO HISPANIOLA WILL
MOVE ACROSS PR TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS/BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUN THRU MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUD COVER WHICH PERSISTED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...HAS MOVED AWAY DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
HAVE PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY IN
THE VICINITY OF MAYAGUEZ. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION NEXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM HISPANIOLA EAST ACROSS
PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH ONLY SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. VERY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. ONLY PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION FROM TIME
TO TIME...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT NEXT FEW DAYS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BECOMES STRONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 08/22Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 09/12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 74 84 / 0 10 20 30
STT 77 87 76 86 / 0 20 20 30

[Gustywind]

Good weather in general for the next few days is expected in the NE Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
256 PM AST SAT DEC 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE ATLC INTO HISPANIOLA WILL
MOVE ACROSS PR TONIGHT WITH GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS/BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SUN THRU MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUD COVER WHICH PERSISTED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...HAS MOVED AWAY DURING THE AFTERNOON. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
HAVE PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY IN
THE VICINITY OF MAYAGUEZ. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION NEXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM HISPANIOLA EAST ACROSS
PUERTO RICO TONIGHT...WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH ONLY SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. VERY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. ONLY PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION FROM TIME
TO TIME...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT NEXT FEW DAYS...AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BECOMES STRONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 08/22Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 09/12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 74 84 / 0 10 20 30
STT 77 87 76 86 / 0 20 20 30

That's excellent news Cycloneye... even if most of our carib friends are a bit shy by posting less messages (included me ).

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Yes!! Good weather will prevail in the NE Caribbean for the next few days.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
437 AM AST SUN DEC 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING...WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC AND AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. NOT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LANDS AREAS SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FA TODAY AND UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THESE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A GENERALLY DRY AIR
MASS MAINTAINING A VERY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES STRONGER. HOWEVER...THE
EXPECTED EAST NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES OF PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHTS AND EARLY IN THE MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLD
SHRA ACROSS PR MAY CAUSE VCSH MAINLY FOR TJSJ AND TJMZ. WIND TO
REMAIN EASTERLY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...INCREASING AFTER 09/13Z
TO 10 TO 15KTS UNTIL 09/23Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 83 74 / 10 20 30 0
STT 86 75 86 76 / 20 20 30 10

[cycloneye]

December 9 Jamaica forecast:

A surface trough across the western Caribbean will continue to influence weather conditions across the island today.

This will result in partly cloudy conditions with isolated showers over sections of the island.

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

December 9 2012
 
Significant Feature: Surface trough over the western Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy.

Afternoon: Windy with isolated showers over sections of the island.

Tonight: Partly cloudy becoming fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:27 a.m.
 5:32 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:32 a.m.
 5:37 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:33 a.m.
 5:38 p.m.
 
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST SUN DEC 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK THEN
BREAK DOWN AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS POLAR TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME FAST MOVING SHOWERS
WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...WITH
FEW AFFECTING SAINT THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
EASTERN SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. AN OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE LOCAL REGION. GFS COMPUTER
MODEL...INDICATED PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME...WHICH WILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA IN THE LONG TERM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 10/12Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO
15 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS DUE TO SEAS OF 7 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 84 73 85 / 20 20 0 20
STT 75 86 75 87 / 20 20 10 20