WPAC: BOPHA - Remnants

[dexterlabio]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OQsKusqMdUU[/youtube]

i see. thank you for that.

[ejeraldmc]

The storm just shattered north of Luzon...

[poppixie27]

Doesn't look good...is it still alive?

[supercane4867]

It's fallen apart as i said, no big threat to Luzon

[poppixie27]

It's fallen apart as i said, no big threat to Luzon

Good riddance

[Meow]

Very terrible... Strong vertical wind shear is killing Bopha.

[stormstrike]

Very terrible... Strong vertical wind shear is killing Bopha.

at last!

[vbhoutex]

Thank goodness it is dying or dead!! Here in the US we aren't getting much coverage of Bopha. I did see a report this morning that 600+ are dead and 600+ missing with over 400k homeless. Is this correct? That is horrible!! With Bopha progged to head back towards Luzon as of yesterday I pray that it totally disapates before moving back over the Phillipines.

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 052
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 17.7N 118.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 118.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.9N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.8N 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.1N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.9N 119.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 13.6N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 11.5N 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 118.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTHWEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z
IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 52//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTHWEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT TY 26W HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED EAST OF A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081134Z SSMIS IMAGE
DEPICTS CURVED, SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC, WHICH IS
POSITIONED JUST WEST OF AN ISOLATED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE
IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE.
DESPITE THE RAPID WEAKENING TREND, DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES REMAIN AT TYPHOON STRENGTH, RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS, SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES, BASED ON THE WEAK DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING. TY 26W HAS MAINTAINED GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW;
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN STRONG (30 TO 40 KNOTS)
WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY 26W HAS CONTINUED TO TURN
EASTWARD AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE; HOWEVER, FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN
DECREASED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED
BY TAU 96.
B. TY 26W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR BUT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY DUE TO STRONG VWS AND SOME INTERACTION WITH LUZON.
THEREAFTER, AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, IT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD FOLLOWING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE
DYNAMIC AIDS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR AND GFS, ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH TAU 72. WBAR AND GFS ARE
CONSIDERED HIGHLY UNREALISTIC SINCE THEY BOTH TRACK THE SYSTEM INTO
A ZONE OF HIGH VWS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND
A STRONG NORTHEAST SURGE. ANALYSIS OF GFS 850MB VORTICITY FIELDS
SHOWS RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WEST OF LUZON AND A QUICK TURN
SOUTHWARD; THE GFS VORTEX TRACKER APPEARS TO BE ERRONEOUSLY JUMPING
THE CENTER EASTWARD TO ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHEAR LINE POSITIONED EAST OF LUZON. GIVEN THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL
TRACK GUIDANCE AND HIGH TRACK DEPENDENCE ON THE INTENSITY, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 REMAINS LOW.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AND WEAKEN DUE TO ONGOING VWS AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LOOPING MOTION AND A SPREAD IN ALONG-TRACK FORECAST SPEEDS
AMONG CONSENSUS MODEL MEMBERS. EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[Meow]

The JMA downgraded Bopha to a severe tropical storm just now.



STS 1224 (BOPHA)
Issued at 15:50 UTC, 8 December 2012

<Analyses at 08/15 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°00'(18.0°)
E119°10'(119.2°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 09/15 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°25'(18.4°)
E120°00'(120.0°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE Slowly
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°40'(16.7°)
E120°05'(120.1°)
Direction and speed of movement S Slowly
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 11/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°25'(14.4°)
E119°30'(119.5°)
Direction and speed of movement S 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I'm just a newbie here!

Anyway PAGASA announced that the name Pablo will no longer be used the lists of names.

Typhoon Bopha seems to be dissipating now, more like a tropical storm to me! Probably, the name Bopha will also be retired...

[euro6208]

I'm just a newbie here!

Anyway PAGASA announced that the name Pablo will no longer be used the lists of names.

Typhoon Bopha seems to be dissipating now, more like a tropical storm to me! Probably, the name Bopha will also be retired...

WELCOME TO STORM2K!!!




highly likely bopha will be retired as well...

[mrbagyo]

I'm just a newbie here!

Anyway PAGASA announced that the name Pablo will no longer be used the lists of names.

Typhoon Bopha seems to be dissipating now, more like a tropical storm to me! Probably, the name Bopha will also be retired...

Welcome to the storm2k community..
I suggest the name "PONYANG" to replace Pablo, "Ponyang" is the name of our former boarder that really pumped up our water bill. LOL

[mrbagyo]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 DEC 2012 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 17:15:22 N Lon : 118:40:05 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 972.9mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 3.8 1.5

Center Temp : +14.9C Cloud Region Temp : 0.5C

Scene Type : SHEAR (>1.25^ TO DG)

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.0T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.7 degrees ...
about to die...

[CrazyC83]

The shear is astronomical north of Luzon - over 100 kt I think I saw! If running perpendicular to that, it will be torn to shreds!

[supercane4867]

Huge zonal flow over East Aisa, nothing can survive there

[Meow]

Tropical Storm Bopha may die within one day.



TS 1224 (BOPHA)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 8 December 2012

<Analyses at 08/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N18°20'(18.3°)
E119°40'(119.7°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 09/18 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N18°30'(18.5°)
E120°25'(120.4°)
Direction and speed of movement ENE Slowly
Central pressure 1006hPa
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

[PaulR]

Thank goodness it is dying or dead!! Here in the US we aren't getting much coverage of Bopha. I did see a report this morning that 600+ are dead and 600+ missing with over 400k homeless. Is this correct? That is horrible!! With Bopha progged to head back towards Luzon as of yesterday I pray that it totally disapates before moving back over the Phillipines.

I saw those numbers on Yahoo News, also. I have not seen confirmation, but they seem likely. ABS-CBN in Manila has the toll up to 548:

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/regio ... rte-pagasa

On a personal note, my wife's cousin that we had not heard from did contact another relative - the cousin is ok but (if I have this straight - there's a lot of "extended family" in Mindano) the farm sustained a lot of damage, and a niece of that cousin had her home flooded (not the same woman as the "house is a submarine" I spoke of previously.)

There was actually some coverage on our local TV station last night...

[poppixie27]

Mindanao was really devastated here, but a Pacquiao win tonight will temporarily ease a little bit of pain away.

[supercane4867]

It's time to say farewell to Bopha