SPAC: Evan - Severe Tropical Cyclone

[supercane4867]

14.0S 177.5E

[euro6208]

EURO develops this into a powerful cyclone...American Samoa and Fiji should look out...

[supercane4867]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD04F CENTRE [1005HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 13.0S 176.1E 
AT 092100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT IR IMAGERY AND 
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS. 
 
ORGANISATION IS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS 
SLIGHTLY INCREASED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE CIRCLONIC CIRCULATION 
EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA.  
 
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT EASTWARDS WITH 
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. 
 
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE 
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.  

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.9S
178.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 177.6E, APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH
OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LOOSELY-ORGANIZED,
FLARING CONVECTION. A 100216Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A 092209Z ASCAT PARTIAL IMAGE INDICATES 10 TO 15
KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
NADI, FIJI (NFFN) INDICATE SLP VALUES RANGING FROM 1005 TO 1006MB.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THIS AREA IS LOCATED JUST POLEWARD OF
THE RIDGE AXIS WITH DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND WEAK (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A FAVORABLE 28 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS. THE BROADER SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE IN WHICH
THIS AREA IS LOCATED IS OBSERVED TO BE INCREASING IN ACTIVITY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Depression 04F

[supercane4867]

PS10 PGTW 102349
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91P (NE OF FIJI)
B. 10/2322Z
C. 14.4S
D. 179.4W
E. FIVE/GOES15
F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/1853Z 14.3S 179.9E TRMM
10/2028Z 14.2S 179.7W SSMS
UEHARA

[supercane4867]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 11/0157 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F CENTRE 1001HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 179.1W
AT 110000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST AT
ABOUT 9 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION AND CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST 24
HOURS. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION IN A LOW SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. TD04F IS BEING STEERED EAST-NORTHEAST BY WEST-SOUTHWEST
DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.3 WRAP GIVING
DT=2.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING
T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A EASTWARDS MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 14.0S 177.8W MOV E AT 06 KT WITH 25 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120000 UTC 13.5S 176.1W MOV ENE AT 08 KT WITH 25
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 13.0S 174.2W MOV ENE AT 08 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 12.8S 172.9W MOV ENE AT 08 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD04F WILL BE ISSUED AT OR
AROUND 110800 UTC.

[supercane4867]

[Crostorm]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 11/0759 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 177.8 AT
110600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30
KNOTS.

OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMROVED WITH MULTIPLE BANDS TRYING TO WRAP
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION
IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. TD04F IS BEING STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST
BY WEST-NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.4
WRAP GIVING DT=2.5, MET=2.0 AND PT=2.0. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING
T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A EASTWARDS MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT.
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 111800 UTC 14.8S 175.7W MOV E AT 10 KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 14.5S 174.2W MOV ENE AT 08 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 14.5S 173.3W MOV E AT 05 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 14.5S 172.8W MOV E AT 05 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD04F WILL BE ISSUED AT OR
AROUND 111400 UTC

[Crostorm]

WTPS21 PGTW 110500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.7S 179.7W TO 13.5S 172.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
110222Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.6S
178.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.4S
177.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 178.8W, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CENTRALIZED CONVECTION AND SYMMETRIC FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A RECENT 102312Z OSCAT PASS SHOWED STRONG
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WITH 30 KNOT WINDS PRESENT
AROUND THE LLCC, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER
OF THE SYSTEM INDICATING 1000 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AXIS, WHICH IS PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND A LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ENVIRONMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE A FAVORABLE 29 TO
30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1000 MB. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE SSTS AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN A
LOW VWS ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[euro6208]

[supercane4867]

SUBJ： TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
WTPS31 PGTW 112100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 175.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 175.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.8S 173.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 13.2S 172.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 13.0S 171.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 13.4S 171.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 14.8S 174.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 16.6S 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.2S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 175.2W.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 110451Z
DEC 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 110500 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[supercane4867]

The Samoa Islands need to be prepared for a hurricane

[HurricaneBill]

The next name on the list is "Evan".

[euro6208]

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST
OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH INCREASED FORMATIVE BANDING AND IMPROVED CENTRAL CONVECTION. A
111758Z TRMM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONCURS WITH THE RECENT
IMPROVEMENT AND SHOWS THE BEGINNING OF A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 04P HAS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE JET JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE FORMING ALOFT. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW (05-10 KNOTS). TC 04P IS CURRENTLY TRACKING
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE CENTERED
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 04P WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS VWS REMAINS LOW AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN HIGH. AFTER TAU 36, TC 04P WILL SLOW
CONSIDERABLY AS A COL REGION FORMS BETWEEN THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHEAST, WHICH COULD CAUSE LOOPING AND QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT
DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 48, THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL TAKE OVER AS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM
DRIVING TC 04P TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 04P IS FORECAST TO REACH PEAK
INTENSITY BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96 NEAR 100 KNOTS. INTENSITIES WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER TAU 96 AS VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD
OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND ALL AGREE ON THE CLOCKWISE TURN
WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN TRANSLATIONAL SPEED. THE OFFICIAL
JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THESE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. DUE TO THE LOOPING MOTION AND VERY WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT FORECAST AT TAUS 36 AND 48, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 110451Z
DEC 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 110500).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 120900Z AND 122100Z.//
NNNN

[supercane4867]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 12/0223 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN 04F CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 174.5W
AT 120000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT ABOUT
10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
INCREASED WITH PRIMARY BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC. SYSTEM
LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH.
SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS BEING STEERED
EAST-NORTHEAST BY A WEST-SOUTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. SST AROUND
30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT OF
3.0, MET AND PT AGREE. THUS, T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121200 UTC 13.7S 172.6W MOV ENE AT 10 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 13.4S 171.6W MOV ENE AT 07 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 13.8S 171.2W MOV ESE AT 05 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 14.2S 171.4W MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON EVAN WILL BE ISSUED AT OR
AROUND 120800 UTC.

[supercane4867]

Very deep convection firing up

[Crostorm]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 12/0805 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN 04F CENTRE 990HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 174.1W
AT 120600 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 40
KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE PAST SIX HOURS. CLOUD TOPS
COOLING. THE CYCLONE LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO THE SOUTH. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND
IS BEING STEERED EASTWARDS BY A WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. SST
AROUND 30 DEGREES CELCIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON CENTRAL CLOUD COVER PATTERN, YIELDING DT OF
3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON MET. THUS, T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 13.8S 172.7W MOV ENE AT 08 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 13.9S 172.0W MOV E AT 05 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 14.2S 171.8W MOV SE AT 05 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 14.6S 172.2W MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON EVAN WILL BE ISSUED AT OR
AROUND 121400 UTC.

[supercane4867]

TPPS10 PGTW 121220
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN)
B. 12/1152Z
C. 14S
D. 173.1W
E. FIVE/GOES11
F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. 1.1 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. PT AGREES; MET WAS 3.5. DBO DT, BREAKING CONSTRAINTS AS MASSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER LLCC HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO PLACE A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN PAST DVORAKS BUT LATEST METSAT IMAGE IS WELL-DEFINED AND THERE IS A ROUND MICROWAVE EYE ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
LONG

[supercane4867]

50kt category 2?

TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN CENTRE 985HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9
SOUTH 172.8 WEST AT 121200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GMS IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT 13 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE,
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
EVAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY WITH DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING IN THE
PAST SIX HOURS. CLOUD TOPS COOLING. THE CYCLONE LIES UNDER AN UPPER
DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW GOOD TO RESTRICTED TO SOUTH BUT GOOD
ELSEWHERE. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS BEING
STEERED EASTWARDS BY A WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. SST AROUND 30
DEGREES CELCIUS.DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.0 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL
YIELDING YIELDING DT OF 3.5. MET=4.0, PT=3.5. FT BASED ON PT. THUS,
T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS.
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 130000 UTC 13.8S 171.7W MOV E AT 05 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 13.8S 171.3W MOV E AT 04 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 14.1S 171.3W MOV E AT 02 KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 140600 UTC 14.8S 172.3W MOV SSE AT 01 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON EVAN WILL BE ISSUED AT OR
AROUND 122000 UTC.