Texas Winter 2012-2013

[SouthernMet]

Per the best short range model out there... This could be a huge mistake :

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
707 PM CST SUN DEC 9 2012

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO REDUCE POPS AND COVERAGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND REMOVED PRECIPITATION OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ON MONDAY MORNING. AS FOR THE SNOW
POTENTIAL...WILL LEAVE 20 POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND ALONG THE RED RIVER ON MONDAY MORNING. MODEL SOLUTIONS
YESTERDAY AND TODAY INDICATE THAT THIS POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO
DECREASE AS THE UPPER AXIS ARRIVES NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY.
ALSO...MOISTURE FLUX AND 850-700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THIS
SYSTEM IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. 75

The reason I say this COULD be a mistake is because it is within 24 hours - 12 hours. They should ATLEAST have a SWS or Advisory for the possibility of this coming true.. The HRRR (unbelievably accurate) has trended this way and finally has a common solution for the last 5 runs, which says something.

[iorange55]

Seeing the moisture down there in Mexico is more intriguing than the actual model runs. It'll be interesting to see if anything actually develops.

I'm just not confident it will come together.

[SouthernMet]

New NWS Graphic : http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=fwd&gc=5
"Expect mostly cloudy and cold conditions overnight with a chance of light snow or snow flurries after 3 am along and north I-20 and I-30"

Still not enough IMO..

[Ntxw]

Seeing the moisture down there in Mexico is more intriguing than the actual model runs. It'll be interesting to see if anything actually develops.

I'm just not confident it will come together.

We wouldn't want it any other way right? When the models and forecasts busts is when we usually see our best snows!

Lets not forget, there are some pretty big thunderstorms in east and southeast Texas too. Hoping you folks that way get a deluge!

[Shoshana]

Wind just picked up here. 59F at the house, 68F (and thunderstorm?) at the airport (south of us, obviously)

[vbhoutex]

Saw that moisture to the SW last night and almost got to the e in excited. We are back in severe drought here in Houston and we need any rain we can get. Cold rain I do not like!! If it has to be cold and wet then it just needs to snow. We may see some overrunning tomorrow in SE TX. I guess I have to take what I can get. Looking forward to the temperature change definitely. Hoping the trend I have seen in the lows coming up a little on the locals is just model hugging and not what will happen. We are WAY overdue for some COLD weather!!!

[SouthernMet]

And the trend continues..
1 hr snowfall @ 6am : http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displ ... ll&adtfn=1

Temps : http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displ ... ll&adtfn=1

Radar 6am : http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/displ ... ll&adtfn=1

[Ntxw]

There is now support from the RAP (the beloved short range guidance by the NWS which replaced the RUC). Temperature profiles are plenty cold for snow, as low as -3c in some areas and -10c in the dendritic growth zones.



^ that band is moving southeast

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

00Z HRRR continues on this trend

[SouthernMet]

Okay now this is more than just a trend.. If the RAP/Nam/HRRR Solution verifies then the NWS better adjust the "20% chance of flurries" .. Because now Im pretty confident there is a decent chance with this setup, of a minor snow event in NTX..

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Okay now this is more than just a trend.. If the RAP/Nam/HRRR Solution verifies then the NWS better adjust the "20% chance of flurries" .. Because now Im pretty confident there is a decent chance with this setup, of a minor snow event in NTX..

I concur with you! What's interesting is the NAM showed this possibility a day or two ago; it showed a moist tongue moving in from the southwest, but it backed off until late.

[Ntxw]

Daily AO hit it's lowest point since 2010.

[iorange55]

I glanced at Steve McCauley's Facebook to see if had any updates lately. Someone asked him about the HRRR model trend, and Steve said.

"Physics going awry"

[HockeyTx82]

So just got back in from dinner. I see what the models are doing and read up that last page and this one. Anyone have any answers as to what might be happening? Any pro mets out there?

[bella_may]

y'all send some of this snow to south mississippi!

[Ntxw]

So just got back in from dinner. I see what the models are doing and read up that last page and this one. Anyone have any answers as to what might be happening? Any pro mets out there?

We're just dissecting every possible frame of every possible run of every model there is . FW said a couple years back that systems tend to find moisture, might happen here, albeit chances are still low but latest trends are certainly good.

[weatherdude1108]

The cold front has passed through the Portastorm Weather Center. Temps dropping into the mid 60s now. I didn't expect too much drama with this fropa but I am disappointed to not get any rain. About two hours ago, I saw some healthy cumulus buildups to our west. Got my hopes up ... and ... nothing.

SouthernMet's post certainly has piqued my curiosity though for my friends in North Texas.

Nothing here either. Saw a cell to our west. After front moved through, saw flashes of lighting east and northeast as storms flared out that way. That was the "fanfare" in the moisture dept.

But yeah, north and northwest Texas may have more Wintry excitement.

[iorange55]

Looks like there is more moisture developing out west on the radar than expected. However, it could just be my wishful eyes playing tricks on me.

Anyway, I have to up at 5am, so it should be interesting! *fingers crossed*

[somethingfunny]

This is the 3z RAP (it ran at 9pm CST), at its' 1-hr forecast frame (valid at 10pm CST/0400 UTC or half an hour ago) How does it look, compared to what's actually happening?





That precipitation building up in southeast New Mexico is a bit surprising.

There goes our little snow band on its' closest approach to DFW...



Keep your expectations reasonable though; even this exciting little high-resolution model doesn't show anything extraordinary.

[Ntxw]

^ Radar is back building south of the main band. Iorange55's eyes are not deceiving him. NAM and Euro did not show it.