Florida Weather

[Sanibel]

Good rain here too. Mild.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Structural Damage to my House in St. Petersburg from Tornado Warned Severe
Cell Last Night.

[psyclone]

new outlook pulls the tampa CWA out of the slight risk area. the slight risk zone basically includes the melbourne, miami and key west coverage areas...roughly south and east of a line from flagler beach to naples

[AdamFirst]

Interesting weather extremes statewide.

Strong storms are beginning to build over the central interior - while dense sea fog is coming ashore in Volusia County, from Daytona Beach to Cape Canaveral.

[AdamFirst]

Mesoscale Discussion has been posted for east Central and southern Florida. Can't post it because I'm on my phone.

Severe Thunderstorm Watches may be posted later this evening.

[northjaxpro]

A classic overrunning rain event is in store for the northern peninsula on tomorrow as the front has stalled right over the area and strong shortwave energy will swing east. Got less than an 1/2 inch of rain Monday with the pre-frontal disturbance traversing through the region, although areas just south of Jax around St. Augustine reported over 3 inches.

Should get good rain area wide before ending by tomorrow evening and a brief cooldown with lows back to seasonal norms in these parts in the 40s on Thurday morning.

[AdamFirst]

Training torrential rain has caused major flash flooding across northeastern Palm Beach County, specifically in the communities of Jupiter and Tequesta. Water rescues have occurred and are occurring.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
811 PM EST TUE DEC 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 200 AM EST

* AT 809 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT
IN EXCESS OF SEVEN INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN THE JUPITER
AREA WITH THE JUPITER POLICE DEPARTMENT REPORTING THAT MANY HOMES
HAVE WATER INTRUSION.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
JUPITER.

[gsytch]

Typical winter severe season weather yesterday and a cool video of the tornado near Edgewater was on You Tube. We even got 1/2" here with more for tomorrow?? Welcomed rain but very humid and warm. Check out this link for anticipated Florida winter weather:

agroclimate.org/forecasts/current_climate_outlook.php

Scary for those like me who grow plants and have a jungle! But winter is always a guessing game.

[vbhoutex]

Structural Damage to my House in St. Petersburg from Tornado Warned Severe
Cell Last Night.
http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/8476/img0001gxf.jpg

Do you have an estimate of the winds that caused the damage? I am presuming it was winds that did that. It seems like one "little" piece of wood broken. I know if something like that happened there was other damage to your property and the surrounding area. Any other reports?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The local meteorologist on channel 8 showed the velocity radar that showed a light green color that I know from looking at Tampa bay national weather service legend to represent 50 to 60 knots, iirc. Also the wind based on eyeball estimates got very strong for 20 seconds similar to high end tropical storm force (55 to 65 mph). Wind was similar to 2004's hurricane Jeanne as that tornado warned cell blew through. It could have been higher, always hard to tell at night when it struck.

There were many branches down in the area and damage to a sign on top of a nearby shop near mobile home park with the sign partly ripped off.

The local mets mentioned that wind gusts over 60 mph were likely occurring with that cell.

[northjaxpro]

Measured just under 1.25 inches of rain at my location today, the most received in over two months. Good steady rainfall all morning long. Shortwave axis now moving through the area and the rain is coming to an end. We will have a brief cool down the next 36 hours. Lows will be in the 40s tomorrow morning and on Friday morning, then it will warmup again above seasonal norms over the weekend with highs back in the 70s as heights rise with an upper level ridge buiding back over the region.

[gsytch]

Missed a lot of the heaviest rains, but thankful here in W Pasco that we received about 3/4" total since Monday. Could have used more. There is another chance next week with another front. Weekend is suppose to be beautiful, again. Ahh such nice winter weather!

[northjaxpro]

Today was a raw, cloudy and cold day as the daytime high temp only reached 51 degrees at my location as an inversion held in the low cloud overcast across all of NE FL and SE GA. The official high was 59 degrees, which occured at midnight, and the temps dropped off through the morning and held steady all day long. This combined with the low level cold air advection bought in by the northerly wind flow and gave my area the lowest max high temperature reading since last February.

Clouds will hold the temps tonight in the 40s, but the sun should return tomorrow as high pressure builds north of the area and the drier air will finally scour out the clouds and warm up intomthe mid-upper 60s. Mid level ridging returns for the weekend across the region and temps will warm well into the 70s. No major arctic cold spells seen at least for the next week, although we will see a cooldown across at least the northern third of the peninsula as a cold front will move through late Tuesday into Wedneday.

Only two freezes have occured so far at my north Jax location, Nov. 25 and Nov. 26 with 30 degrees each morning. Still awaiting on a significant pattern shift to see if some of that very cold air that has been bottled up in Canada since last month will finally get dislodged and head southward. However, looking at the long range Euro going out 10 days, it shows a mega 1050 mb Arctic High dropping down out of Saskatchewan into the lower 48 leading into Christmas. GFS is also hinting at a similar scenario. So, if the trend with the models hold in the coming days, Old Man Winter may be coming in a big way just in time for Santa to arrive.

[SouthFloridian92]

Today was a raw, cloudy and cold day as the daytime high temp only reached 51 degrees at my location as an inversion held in the low cloud overcast across all of NE FL and SE GA. The official high was 59 degrees, which occured at midnight, and the temps dropped off through the morning and held steady all day long. This combined with the low level cold air advection bought in by the northerly wind flow and gave my area the lowest max high temperature reading since last February.

This is perfect weather for me! Sounds awesome.

Only two freezes have occured so far at my north Jax location, Nov. 25 and Nov. 26 with 30 degrees each morning. Still awaiting on a significant pattern shift to see if some of that very cold air that has been bottled up in Canada since last month will finally get dislodged and head southward. However, looking at the long range Euro going out 10 days, it shows a mega 1050 mb Arctic High dropping down out of Saskatchewan into the lower 48 leading into Christmas. GFS is also hinting at a similar scenario. So, if the trend with the models hold in the coming days, Old Man Winter may be coming in a big way just in time for Santa to arrive.

I wish some of that cold weather would come down here to Key West. It's only gotten down to the low 60s at the coldest so far, which was back in November. It's been an unusually warm December. I can't figure out why it's been so warm though. But it's very disappointing.

[gsytch]

I've seen where that high is suppose to come down, but it appears it will be mostly blunted east, like many have been so far. I am sure one will make it through, eventually. They always do. However, long range is looking like just below normal but nothing out of the ordinary UNLESS....but I will not think of the unless. I enjoy the mild winters and din't move here 24 years ago for the arctic fronts! lol...

Today was a raw, cloudy and cold day as the daytime high temp only reached 51 degrees at my location as an inversion held in the low cloud overcast across all of NE FL and SE GA. The official high was 59 degrees, which occured at midnight, and the temps dropped off through the morning and held steady all day long. This combined with the low level cold air advection bought in by the northerly wind flow and gave my area the lowest max high temperature reading since last February.

Clouds will hold the temps tonight in the 40s, but the sun should return tomorrow as high pressure builds north of the area and the drier air will finally scour out the clouds and warm up intomthe mid-upper 60s. Mid level ridging returns for the weekend across the region and temps will warm well into the 70s. No major arctic cold spells seen at least for the next week, although we will see a cooldown across at least the northern third of the peninsula as a cold front will move through late Tuesday into Wedneday.

Only two freezes have occured so far at my north Jax location, Nov. 25 and Nov. 26 with 30 degrees each morning. Still awaiting on a significant pattern shift to see if some of that very cold air that has been bottled up in Canada since last month will finally get dislodged and head southward. However, looking at the long range Euro going out 10 days, it shows a mega 1050 mb Arctic High dropping down out of Saskatchewan into the lower 48 leading into Christmas. GFS is also hinting at a similar scenario. So, if the trend with the models hold in the coming days, Old Man Winter may be coming in a big way just in time for Santa to arrive.

[NDG]

I am taking the Euro with with a grain of salt, it has been wanting to deepen troughs across the south-eastern US more than it actually happen, the persistent -PNA has been canceling any troughs from really deepening across the eastern US.
Even the GFS raw numbers now show low temps in the mid to upper 30s all the way down to Lake Okeechobee for next weekend, I am not bying that until we get closer to that time period and they get a better grip.

[NDG]

12z GFS already has backed away from is previous 0z run of the really cold spell it was painting for next weekend.

[NDG]

Today was a raw, cloudy and cold day as the daytime high temp only reached 51 degrees at my location as an inversion held in the low cloud overcast across all of NE FL and SE GA. The official high was 59 degrees, which occured at midnight, and the temps dropped off through the morning and held steady all day long. This combined with the low level cold air advection bought in by the northerly wind flow and gave my area the lowest max high temperature reading since last February.

This is perfect weather for me! Sounds awesome.

Only two freezes have occured so far at my north Jax location, Nov. 25 and Nov. 26 with 30 degrees each morning. Still awaiting on a significant pattern shift to see if some of that very cold air that has been bottled up in Canada since last month will finally get dislodged and head southward. However, looking at the long range Euro going out 10 days, it shows a mega 1050 mb Arctic High dropping down out of Saskatchewan into the lower 48 leading into Christmas. GFS is also hinting at a similar scenario. So, if the trend with the models hold in the coming days, Old Man Winter may be coming in a big way just in time for Santa to arrive.

I wish some of that cold weather would come down here to Key West. It's only gotten down to the low 60s at the coldest so far, which was back in November. It's been an unusually warm December. I can't figure out why it's been so warm though. But it's very disappointing.

It has been for the most part warmer than average in the FL Peninsula the last 3 weeks or so because of a Persistent negative PNA and the NAO has stayed near neutral. So the Arctic airmass in Canada has not reached FL, it usually takes a big trough to dig over FL for the Arctic airmass to reach S FL.

[Sanibel]

80 and sunny again today. Above average.

[NDG]

Here is MLB's forecast discussion for the week ahead, they have also seen how the models have backed away of a really cold weekend they were painting for central and south FL a couple of days ago.

WED-SAT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT QUICKLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WED AND THEN EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT AGAIN FOR THU-SAT. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON WED
AND GET NUDGED INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WEAKEN INTO THU. THE
GFS AGAIN IS TRENDING QUICKER WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PLOWING
IT THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THU OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE BACK INTO
THE AREA THU EVENING INTO FRI MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS AGAIN
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST STATES INTO SOUTHEAST U.S. FRI
OVERNIGHT CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS.

HIGHS/LOWS NOW FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR WED AND
AGAIN ON THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. A COOLER TREND IS
AGAIN EXPECTED BEHIND THE NEXT BOUNDARY FOR FRI/SAT FOR BOTH MAX/MIN
TEMPERATURES BUT CONFIDENCE MAY BE A BIT LOW AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
DID THE SAME THING WITH THE LAST SYSTEM ONLY TO BACK OFF OF THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHED. IF THE LATEST DATA
HOLDS TRUE THEN NEAR TO JUST BELOW CLIMO TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT FRI/SAT.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=0