Texas Winter 2012-2013

[vbhoutex]

Yeah the sun has peeked through. When the sunsets the temps will plummet fast if the wind calms down

Euro has Houston sky overcast (mid and high clouds returning) by 8pm-9pm and continuing so through the night.

Euro may be right. Some high clouds showing just before sunset. Nothing thick enough yet to stop the temps dropping. Already down to 45f here in W. Houston. I'll definitely be watching for the clouds. Hope we do see our first freeze tonight. After all it is that time of year Wxman57.

Managed 32F here in W Houston close to the urban heat core with some high clouds overhead most of the night.
SS your assumption would be correct about the -50C. If it were spilling South I have no idea what it would be here but normally you don't see those temps unless they are "bottled up" and I guess fortunately for us here in TX it is a long ways for the temps to moderate before they get here.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

This is definitely the gift that keeps on giving then (you get enough cold to knock down the hot temps and pests and we don't turn into human popsicles).

Wish you had gotten a whole lot more moisture though.

[vbhoutex]

This is definitely the gift that keeps on giving then (you get enough cold to knock down the hot temps and pests and we don't turn into human popsicles).

Wish you had gotten a whole lot more moisture though.

I think I can safely speak for ALL of my Texas brethren in saying SO DO WE!! ALL of Texas still needs more moisture in any form we can get it.

[weatherdude1108]

Sure is chilly ... 27 degrees at 6 am at the Portastorm Weather Center.

Meanwhile, both the 0z GFS and King Euro continue to suggest a major cold front right before Christmas for Texas. Details obviously need to be honed between now and then but considering this scenario has been suggested for about 4-5 cycles of model runs, I'd say confidence is growing. It doesn't look like an "Arctic Outbreak" to me but just a strong Canadian front ... more or less like what we are experiencing now.

The GFS is real, real dry for much of Texas. Hope it's wrong but as long as the PNA is negative, it's probably right.

NOT liking the negative PNA. On a slighter brighter note (or less pessimistic note), there is a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday through Saturday! Something is better than nothing, as long as it comes to fruition of course. Actions speak louder than words. Or another way to put it, weather observations speak louder than forecasts.

Austin and Vicinity
Friday - A chance of drizzle before 11am, then a chance of showers after 11am. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 69. South southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday Night - A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. South southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west after midnight.

Saturday - A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. West northwest wind 10 to 15 mph.

[Portastorm]

I'm sorry to be a Negative Ned, weatherdude, but that 30% means that 30% of the county warning area within the jurisdiction of NWS Austin/San Antonio has a shot at some rain. And based on forecast discussions I have seen ... that 30% is probably covering the far eastern counties (i.e. east of I-35). It'll probably be much like what we just saw with this last front. Whatever rain brews up will probably do so to our east. I hope I'm wrong but ...

[gpsnowman]

Same here in North Texas Portastorm. We get a 30% chace of rain a few days out then it's 20 then 10 and next thing you know all the rain is falling well east of here. Same old story. Keeping my fingers crossed with the next system on Friday.

[Tireman4]

This is for we in Houston......


Friday Night A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 59.
Saturday A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 77.

[orangeblood]

I'm very interested in the winter period coming up over the next month....there are very few analog years with a - AO, - NAO along with a - PNA. I would assume that this is a perfect set up for laying quite a bit of snow cover across the lower 48. The winter of 78-79 had a similar setup which led to a very cold January of 79, almost 10 degrees below normal for the entire month in some area of Texas. Although one important mechanism for the Arctic Express to come barreling down into Texas (+PNA) isn't on the table quite yet, the - AO and the retrograding block across Canada will keep unmodified cold canadian air just to our north. Any system traversing across Texas would be able to tap into this canadian air just to the north and create a good setup for rain changing to snow on the backside of these upper level systems. The caveat for too far south would mean the systems aren't able to tap into this cold air but should change over time as snow cover develops to our north. Lookout later this month when the retrograding block makes it over to Western Canada/Alaska...that might flip the PNA + and open the railway into the Central Plains for the Siberian Express!!!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

33.1F here in Sugar Land. A bit of an urban area but i think the clouds held us back from freezing temps. Im very curious as to what analogs are similar for this year so far. Currently we have no set pattern at all. Have not had a year like this in a while

[Portastorm]

I'm very interested in the winter period coming up over the next month....there are very few analog years with a - AO, - NAO along with a - PNA. I would assume that this is a perfect set up for laying quite a bit of snow cover across the lower 48. The winter of 78-79 had a similar setup which led to a very cold January of 79, almost 10 degrees below normal for the entire month in some area of Texas. Although one important mechanism for the Arctic Express to come barreling down into Texas (+PNA) isn't on the table quite yet, the - AO and the retrograding block across Canada will keep unmodified cold canadian air just to our north. Any system traversing across Texas would be able to tap into this canadian air just to the north and create a good setup for rain changing to snow on the backside of these upper level systems. The caveat for too far south would mean the systems aren't able to tap into this cold air but should change over time as snow cover develops to our north. Lookout later this month when the retrograding block makes it over to Western Canada/Alaska...that might flip the PNA + and open the railway into the Central Plains for the Siberian Express!!!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Nice analog connection, orangeblood. I went back and checked on those indices and they do look very similar to what we're dealing with now. December 77 through February 78 featured normal precip but below normal temps for Texas. Something for us to watch.

[orangeblood]

Yeah, 77-78' was probably the greatest winter in North Texas history....had winter storms come through almost every week starting in late December!! But that winter had a neutral to postive PNA, something I think we will go to once we get this block to transverse across Canada

[horselattitudesfarm]

Well, its official. All my vegetation is now freeze-dried. Slow dried for 2 months and then flash frozen. Swansons Foods couldn't have done a better job than mother nature has done. Sad thing is....I cannot really tell that much of a difference

[Ntxw]

Keep an eye on the system early next week (17-18th). This is much different than the storms that have been passing through this fall. It will be strengthening unlike it's predecessors which fall apart crossing Texas. GFS and Euro have been strangely cooperating with each other quite well (doomsday must be coming). Not a whole lot of cold air to work with, but we know the typical drill of being under the vortex with such low heights.

I'd like to see a warm up this weekend so we can get some moisture return for rain with it at least.

[vbhoutex]

We are already seeing moisture return here in SE TX with a currently mostly cloudy sky. It isn't at just one level either. The clouds are keeping our temps a lot lower than progged too. We just hit 49.5F here at my house after 32F for the low. Progged is 60F. I doubt we make that unless the clouds disappear soon.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

51F here, no way we hit 60F

[Rgv20]

We may get our first light freeze tonight for a good portion of the RGV.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1239 PM CST TUE DEC 11 2012

TXZ248>254-256-120245-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
COASTAL WILLACY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...HEBBRONVILLE...FALFURRIAS...
SARITA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...
MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...PORT MANSFIELD
1239 PM CST TUE DEC 11 2012

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID VALLEY
TONIGHT...

A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS IS NOW SETTLING OVER DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE INTO THE LOWER 30S
ACROSS BROOKS AND JIM HOGG COUNTIES...AND PERHAPS ALSO AT OTHER
ISOLATED RURAL AREAS IN ZAPATA AND KENEDY COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES
MAY DECREASE TO FREEZING OR BELOW IN A FEW SPOTS FOR A FEW HOURS.
IN LIGHT OF THE POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES...A FREEZE WARNING
MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY SHOULD CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR PREFERRED MEDIA
OUTLET FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER EVENT.

[gboudx]

Well, its official. All my vegetation is now freeze-dried. Slow dried for 2 months and then flash frozen. Swansons Foods couldn't have done a better job than mother nature has done. Sad thing is....I cannot really tell that much of a difference

I harvested all the bell peppers and poblanos this past Sunday. I pulled about 40 roma tomatoes off with 95% of them being green still. I've placed them in a paper bag and am storing them in a cabinet to see if they ripen. Checked the plants this morning and.....time of death - last night.

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow:

I'm sorry to be a Negative Ned, weatherdude, but that 30% means that 30% of the county warning area within the jurisdiction of NWS Austin/San Antonio has a shot at some rain. And based on forecast discussions I have seen ... that 30% is probably covering the far eastern counties (i.e. east of I-35). It'll probably be much like what we just saw with this last front. Whatever rain brews up will probably do so to our east. I hope I'm wrong but ...

I hear ya' Porta. Seems like all of these "rain events" get hyped, then as the days roll on, the chances go to slim, then none. Then, they go east, into the abyss, until the next rain event hype.

I'm always hoping for that mood-changing surprise rogue system. A system that brings in a deep source of moisture, pumping up the spirits of myself and my fellow Texas bretheren who are in dire need of a "boost," literally and metaphorically. I guess I'm an optimistic realist.

[Tireman4]

A question. Now, I am not as smart as the sharpest object in a tool shed, but did we not have a wet fall/ winter? If yes ( I swear I remember something falling out of the sky...LOL), did not the models forcast a dry period for that forecast timeframe and it proved the models wrong? What I am saying, with Mother Nature, I think we still are trying to figure things out. My mother just died recently due to complications of a stroke that occured in 2002. Now, we know a ton about the brain, but ( as the Neo Nurse confirmed), there still so much we do not know. We can do wonders on small strokes, but massive, we still are aways from it. What I am saying is, I suppose anything can happen. Look at the snow DFW area got this past week. Maybe I know nothing...LOL

[Portastorm]

A question. Now, I am not as smart as the sharpest object in a tool shed, but did we not have a wet fall/ winter? If yes ( I swear I remember something falling out of the sky...LOL), did not the models forcast a dry period for that forecast timeframe and it proved the models wrong? What I am saying, with Mother Nature, I think we still are trying to figure things out. My mother just died recently due to complications of a stroke that occured in 2002. Now, we know a ton about the brain, but ( as the Neo Nurse confirmed), there still so much we do not know. We can do wonders on small strokes, but massive, we still are aways from it. What I am saying is, I suppose anything can happen. Look at the snow DFW area got this past week. Maybe I know nothing...LOL

There's no question that the accuracy of any forecast beyond the 3-5 day period is suspect ... the further out one goes beyond that period, the less accurate the forecast is more likely to be ... unless the atmosphere is in a static state with an unchanging pattern.

You folks in SE Texas had "normal" precipitation for the Sep-Nov period this year but everyone to your west and northwest was drier and warmer than normal. So, in essence, those longer range forecasts did verify for this fall. One major forecast which received a lot of attention (and speculation) which did NOT verify was for ENSO. We are in neutral conditions but the forecast for this time period from last summer was for a weak-to-moderate El Nino. That obviously didn't happen.