Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

Also the ECMWF continues to develop into a TD/Weak Storm but as GFS it moves NE and out to sea.

96 hours.

[cycloneye]

This is information that Dr Jeff Masters posted at his blog about NOGAPS shutting down and a new one comming up to replace it. Hopefully,the new one competes in a good way with GFS and ECMWF.

News from the Navy:

On March 13, 2013, FNMOC WILL COMPLETE THE TRANSITION FROM NOGAPS TO THE NEW Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) MODEL. THE NOGAPS MODEL WILL BE REMOVED FROM OPERATIONS.

I haven't come across any info on whether or not the new model is better at tracking hurricanes.

Jeff Masters

[Cyclenall]

I just looked through all of Dr. Jeff Master's blog entries for December 2012 and didn't see anything about this posted.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: I just looked through all of Dr. Jeff Master's blog entries for December 2012 and didn't see anything about this posted.

It was a post (#278) that he made in the latest blog.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... commenttop

[Cyclenall]

:uarrow: I just looked through all of Dr. Jeff Master's blog entries for December 2012 and didn't see anything about this posted.

It was a post (#278) that he made in the latest blog.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... commenttop

That's finding the needle in the haystack right there. Well hidden and not in his actual blog but in a post within a blog entry.

[cycloneye]

NCEP site has been thru some problems releasing a good portion of the GFS runs on December 27th. Hopefully,all is resolved before things heat up in the North Atlantic Tropics.

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1450Z THU DEC 27 2012
12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS ON TIME..
THE MODEL ANALYSIS AND GUIDANCE WEBSITE AT MAG.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
REMAINS DOWN. THE WOC IS INVESTIGATING THE ISSUE...ETA IS
UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP

http://weather.noaa.gov/tgstatus/

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest information by NCEP about the GFS site.


NCEP Model Analysis and Guidance (MAG) Website Status
January 4, 2013

Immediate Response to System Failure

On December 26, 2012, the MAG website experienced a major hardware failure at NOAA’s Web Operations Center (WOC). Twenty-four hours after the system crash, the WOC determined the operational MAG site to be unrecoverable. By the afternoon of December 27, NCEP Central Operations pulled together its resources and built a temporary site. The site initially hosted the GFS, NAM, and RAP graphical model output over the North American Region. Even though the functionality of the site differs considerably to the original site, customers will have access to the graphical model output with looping capabilities. To accommodate our customers who directly download the GIF images, the directory path of the images was maintained.

Near Term Solution


The remaining model output and observational data will be added in a phased approach as follows:

By January 7, 2013, NCEP will update the temporary MAG website to include the GEFS, SREF, NAM-HIRES, and additional regions for the GFS model.
By January 12, 2013, NCEP will provide the following model and observational data: NAEFS model output, Upperair, Skew-T, RTMA, and expanded regions for the GEFS, GFS and NAM model output.
By January 17, 2013, all remaining graphical model output and regions will be included on the temporary site. Data includes the Wave Watch III and HI-Resolution Window models.
Long Term Solution

NCEP Central Operations will re-architect the MAG to take advantage of our new Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System (WCOSS) scheduled to be fully operational later this year.

While the “look and feel” of the MAG site prior to the system failure will be preserved, the backend processing will be streamlined and moved to the new WCOSS allowing for more frequent site enhancements and provide the ability for customers to access experimental model runs. The new MAG architecture will eliminate the need for the complex Java, J2EE, JBOSS, and relational database components. Instead, the redesigned MAG will rely on internal process-driven html generator scripts.

The redesigned site is planned to be launched in May 2013.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/notice2.shtml

[cycloneye]

Maybe Subtropical Andrea or this low is a teaser cold core?

GFS at 120 hours



ECMWF at 120 hours

[Hurricane Jed]

Nothing like an early start

[cycloneye]

Is cold core. We may have to wait a while before we see the first Invest in the North Atlantic.

[CrazyC83]

There is precedence - 1938 had a solid hurricane in early January out there...

[Hurricane Jed]

1 storm out of 163 seasons lol

[mitchell]

Also Hurricane Alice in January 1955. Perhaps others?

[CrazyC83]

:uarrow: 1 storm out of 163 seasons lol

Reanalysis continues. There appears to have been a storm (below cane status) discovered in January 1951 in that area, pending approval by reanalysis committee.

[Hurricane Jed]

So it appears. Lets see, Alice (2)(54/55) and Zeta(05/06) formed in December and existed into the New Year. SS 1 in 1978 and H#1 in 1938 formed in January. Now possibly this storm in 1951. Impressive but not the best of odds, though certainly better than Feb., Mar., and Apr. combined. Too bad we can't get a well defined Category 1 hurricane in January nowadays to sink our teeth into. That would be some fun research.

[CrazyC83]

So it appears. Lets see, Alice (2)(54/55) and Zeta(05/06) formed in December and existed into the New Year. SS 1 in 1978 and H#1 in 1938 formed in January. Now possibly this storm in 1951. Impressive but not the best of odds, though certainly better than Feb., Mar., and Apr. combined. Too bad we can't get a well defined Category 1 hurricane in January nowadays to sink our teeth into. That would be some fun research.

I'm not aware of any other suspect storms in February or March, but the 1952 storm will definitely survive reanalysis.

[cycloneye]

Also Hurricane Alice in January 1955. Perhaps others?

SubTropical Storm One in 1978.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hurricane withdrawl, lol. We are desperate, aren't we!

[cycloneye]

Major Upgrade to Canadian Model

It was upgraded on the 13th of Febuary at 12z and will be known as GDPS. Now let's see how it does with tropical weather but apparently,the upgrade is more to North America than the tropics.

http://dd.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/doc/ge ... 10___00179

MAJOR UPGRADE TO THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM GDPS-
VERSION 3.0.0) AT THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE
ON WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 13, 2013, STARTING WITH THE 1200 UTC RUN, THE
CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE (CMC) OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
OF CANADA (MSC) WILL IMPLEMENT VERSION 3.0.0 OF ITS GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (GDPS), HEREAFTER REFERRED TO AS
GDPS-3.0.0. THE MAIN CHANGES OF THIS UPDATE ARE:

- CHANGES TO THE 4D-VAR DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM: - THE USE OF
ADDITIONAL REMOTE SENSING DATA: - AN INCREASE IN HORIZONTAL
RESOLUTION FROM 33 TO 25 KM: - IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE GEM MODEL
PHYSICS: - AND 1200 UTC RUNS NOW DONE TO 240 HOURS AS FOR 0000 UTC
RUNS.
OBJECTIVE SCORES DONE IN DEVELOPMENT AND PARALLEL RUN PHASES SHOW
IMPROVEMENTS IN THE FORECASTS WITH MOST METRICS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE ATMOSPHERE, IN PARTICULAR OVER NORTH AMERICA IN WINTER. THESE
IMPROVEMENTS ARE OF AN ORDER OF MAGNITUDE USUALLY SEEN ONLY ONCE IN
A DECADE. A SUBJECTIVE EVALUATION BY OPERATIONAL METEOROLOGISTS AT
CMC CONFIRMED THOSE IMPROVEMENTS. OTHER FORECAST SYSTEMS WHICH
DEPEND ON GDPS OUTPUT ALSO BENEFIT FROM THE GDPS-3.0.0. CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE REGIONAL DETERMINISTIC PREDICTION SYSTEM (RDPS) TO
HARMONIZE IT WITH THE NEW GDPS, AND THE RDPS FORECASTS ARE ALSO
IMPROVED AS A RESULT, SO ITS VERSION NUMBER IS ALSO INCREASED TO
3.1.0, AND IS HEREAFTER REFERRED TO AS RDPS-3.1.0.


5.3 TROPICAL CYCLONES (TCS)
TCS FROM THE SUMMER CYCLE FORECASTS WERE TRACKED OVER THE ATLANTIC,
EAST PACIFIC AND WEST PACIFIC BASINS, AND COMPARED TO BEST TRACK
DATA PROVIDED BY THE US NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTRE AND THE JOINT
TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. OVERALL, THE GDPS-3.0.0 SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN TC HIT RATE, AND A REDUCTION IN THE INTENSITY BIAS,
RESULTING FROM THE INCREASED RESOLUTION OF BOTH THE FORECAST AND
ANALYSES COMPONENTS. THIS IS MORE EVIDENT OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
EAST PACIFIC BASINS, WHERE SMALL-SCALE TCS OCCUR MORE FREQUENTLY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE FOUND IN THE AVERAGE TC POSITION ERRORS
OR IN THE NUMBER OF FALSE ALARMS.

[cycloneye]

The models have been showing a low pressure in the GOM moving NE towards Florida Penninsula for the past few runs. ECMWF is also showing at day 10. I think this is a non-tropical low but you never know if mother nature surprises us with a semi warm core low.