SPAC: Evan - Severe Tropical Cyclone

[euro6208]

there are thousands of islands in the south pacific...especially along Evan's path...

[euro6208]

WTPS31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 13.0S 172.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 172.1W


REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 172.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM
NORTHWEST OF OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION AS FEEDER BANDS REMAINED TIGHTLY WRAPPED AROUND A 10-NM
EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE EYE-FIX WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, NFFN, AND PHFO RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF A RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE
CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO TRACK WESTWARD AS A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH HAS ASSUMED STEERING. AFTER TAU 48 THE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC
04P WILL SEE MORE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS, IN ADDITION TO WARM SSTS, REMAIN FAVORABLE.
AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE
VORTEX IN A GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK SPEED. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS. THERE IS NOW A HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST AS A DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM
HAS EMERGED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z AND 150300Z. //
NNNN

[supercane4867]

Evan is not that well organized apparently, it's having issues with its core

[supercane4867]

Pinhole eye no more

[supercane4867]

The eyewall completly collapsed, it's getting worse

[supercane4867]

JTWC stil keeps it at 100kt

TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 12.3S 174.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 174.0W

[mrbagyo]

Evan: " I 'm steamy hot" LOL
look at that insane convection..

[supercane4867]

Down to 90kts

TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 13.0S 175.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0S 175.6W

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

For days, it had appeared that Cyclone Evan in the South Pacific had been struggling with its inner-core. Its presentation on geostationary satellite imagery consisted of a humongous, amorphous "blob" of convection deeper than -90 °C. And this had a lot of people fooled because, as they looked at microwave image after microwave image, the satellite showed a very well-defined eye. The main reason this eye was not being observed on satellite...until now...goes back to the basics of convective growth. As a thunderstorm builds, heat rises and expands, leading to the growth of more and more convection. If you were watching the cyclone this morning, the convection near the center just kept getting larger and larger and more intense and more intense. In an eye, air sinks as opposed to rising, and an overall rising motion, like observed earlier today, results in one not being able to form. Now this afternoon, the cloud tops have warmed significantly, and in accordance, a well-defined eye is becoming increasingly apparent on visible satellite images. The latest, official advisory put Evan's intensity at 115 mph. Given recent satellite trends, it may be higher.

[supercane4867]

For days, it had appeared that Cyclone Evan in the South Pacific had been struggling with its inner-core. Its presentation on geostationary satellite imagery consisted of a humongous, amorphous "blob" of convection deeper than -90 °C. And this had a lot of people fooled because, as they looked at microwave image after microwave image, the satellite showed a very well-defined eye. The main reason this eye was not being observed on satellite...until now...goes back to the basics of convective growth. As a thunderstorm builds, heat rises and expands, leading to the growth of more and more convection. If you were watching the cyclone this morning, the convection near the center just kept getting larger and larger and more intense and more intense. In an eye, air sinks as opposed to rising, and an overall rising motion, like observed earlier today, results in one not being able to form. Now this afternoon, the cloud tops have warmed significantly, and in accordance, a well-defined eye is becoming increasingly apparent on visible satellite images. The latest, official advisory put Evan's intensity at 115 mph. Given recent satellite trends, it may be higher.

Here we go...

[CrazyC83]

15/2330 UTC 14.1S 178.9W T5.5/5.5 EVAN -- Southeast Pacific

Still only supports 100 kt (and ADT is lower so 95 kt is my guess for current intensity). However the central pressure is probably very low, guessing near 940mb, given the huge size.

[madness]

Special Weather Bulletin Number SIXTEEN FOR FIJI ON SEVERE TROPICAL
CYCLONE EVAN ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
at 10:43pm on Sunday the 16th of December 2012
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP. A
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE BUA PROVINCE, WESTERN PARTS OF
VITI LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, THE REST OF
VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVITI
GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA,
VATULELE AND NEAR BY SMALLER ISLANDS.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF FIJI.
A DAMAGING HEAVY SWELL WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR FIJI.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN CENTRE [957HPA] CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 15 DECIMAL 2 SOUTH 179 DECIMAL 7 EAST OR ABOUT 75 KM NORTHWEST
OF CIKOBIA AND 145 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LABASA AT 9:00 PM TODAY.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 17 KM/HR.
CLOSE TO ITS CENTRE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE AVERAGE WINDS
UPTO 165 KM/HR WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 230 KM/HR.

ON THIS TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED ABOUT 60 KM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR ABOUT 135KM WEST OF LABASA OR
ABOUT 160KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NADI AT 9:00 AM TOMORROW AND 140 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YASAWA-I-RARA OR 65 KM WEST OF NADI AT 9:00 PM
TOMORROW.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS MAY BEGIN SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE CENTRE
PASSES OVERHEAD OR NEARBY.

FOR YASAWA AND MAMANUCA GROUP:EXPECT VERY DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 180 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 240
KM/HR FROM TOMORROW MIDDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY
THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS. DAMAGING
HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR THE BUA PROVINCE AND THE WESTERN PARTS OF VITI LEVU AND NEARBY
SMALLER ISLANDS:
EXPECT DESTRUCTIVE STORM FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 100
KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 140 KM/HR.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS.
FLOODING INCLUDING SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS.

FOR CIKOBIA, TAVEUNI, THE REST OF VANUA LEVU AND NEARBY SMALLER
ISLANDS, NORTHERN LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUP, REST OF VITI LEVU AND NEAR
BY SMALLER ISLANDS, KADAVU, BEQA, VATULELE AND NEAR BY SMALLER
ISLANDS:
DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS UP TO 80 KM/HR AND
MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 110 KM/HR. RAIN BECOMING FREQUENT AND HEAVY WITH
SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.
DAMAGING HEAVY SWELLS WITH SEA FLOODING OF LOW LYING COASTAL AREAS.
FOR THE REST OF FIJI:
STRONG WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEEDS TO 55 KM/HR AND MOMENTARY GUSTS TO
85 KM/HR. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM TOMORROW.
The following information is provided especially for the mariners:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND PHENOMENAL SEAS NEAR THE CYCLONE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS AND VERY HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 35 NAUTICAL MILES
FROM THE CENTRE. GALE FORCE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS OUT TO ABOUT 120
NAUTICAL MILES FROM THE CENTRE. ELSEWHERE, STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH TO
VERY ROUGH SEAS

The next Special Weather Bulletin for Fiji on Severe Tropical Cyclone
Evan will be issued at or around 01:00am tomorrow morning.

[euro6208]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 179.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 179.9W


REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 179.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS THE DEEP LAYERED CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS REMAINED WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH A BRIEF RE-APPEARANCE OF A
PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED EYE FEATURE WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ANALYSIS OF THE
MSI AND THE POSITIONING FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES AND PHFO. THE
INTENSITY HAS SLOWLY INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH
CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATING 105 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
LLCC, WHICH IS ENHANCING THE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS AND IS CREATING A MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. TC 04P HAS STARTED TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF FIJI. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO ERODE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, CAUSING THE STR TO BECOME
MORE MERIDIONALLY ALIGNED, ALLOWING TC 04P TO TRACK SOUTHWARD BEYOND
TAU 48. TAPPING INTO THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, BUT AS VWS INCREASES SLIGHTLY, A SLOW WEAKENING TREND THROUGH
TAU 72 IS EXPECTED. BEYOND TAU 72, A SHARP INCREASE IN VWS AND A
MARKED DECREASE IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ACCELERATE THE RATE
OF WEAKENING OBSERVED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, BUT SHOWS A
WIDER VARIATION IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. THE FORECAST REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AND BASED ON MODEL
GUIDANCE IMPROVING IN THE EXTENDED TAUS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,
THE TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN INCREASED TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

i never seen so much black, usually it's the typhoons that display this...

Northern Fiji is getting pounded...

[CrazyC83]

Rainfall could be the biggest threat...

[supercane4867]

TXPS26 KNES 161214
TCSWSP

A. 04P (EVAN)

B. 16/1130Z

C. 15.7S

D. 179.3E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/TMI/SSMIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN CMG RESULTING IN AN EYE NO. OF
6.5. SUBTRACTED 0.5 FOR ELONGATED EYE RESULTING IN A DT OF 6.0. MET AND
PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

16/0645Z 14.9S 179.9W TMI
16/0804Z 15.0S 179.8E SSMIS
16/1017Z 15.2S 179.7E AMSU

[supercane4867]

The eyewall will pass by to the west if Nadi

[supercane4867]

Evan is going east of the forecast, could make landfall on Fiji

[supercane4867]

OUCH...

[supercane4867]

TPPS10 PGTW 162110
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN)
B. 16/2030Z
C. 16.7S
D. 178.0E
E. ONE/MTSAT
F. T6.5/6.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. 10NM LG EYE SURROUNDED BY
CMG YIELDS A CF AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.5. PT AND MET
AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
16/1730Z 16.2S 178.4E WIND