SPAC: Evan - Severe Tropical Cyclone

[Crostorm]

[supercane4867]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 954.7mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 6.3 6.8

Center Temp : -36.2C Cloud Region Temp : -80.1C

Scene Type : EYE


T# going straight up

[supercane4867]

Landfall imminent

[Meow]

Severe Tropical Cyclone Evan is the worst to affect Viti Levu since Gavin in 1997. Evan is ready to make landfall over the island.

[Meow]

Landfall imminent

Please change your way of sharing images. They are extremely small.

[supercane4867]

Please change your way of sharing images. They are extremely small.

Don't seem small to me, or are they show up differently on your browser?

[HurricaneBill]

Current conditions in Nadi, Fiji:

http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/91680.html

As of 1:09PM FJT (GMT + 12 hours)

Barometric pressure: 28.71in (around 972mb) and falling

Sustained winds: 51.8mph SSE (about 45KT)
Wind gust: 85.2mph (about 74KT)

[HurricaneBill]

As of 1:25PM FJT (GMT + 12 hours), conditions in Nadi, Fiji:

Pressure: 28.65in (970mb)

Sustained winds: 58mph (about 50KT) SE
Wind gust: 99mph (about 86KT)

[Crostorm]

[HurricaneBill]

Conditions in Nadi, Fiji as of 2:05PM FJT (GMT + 12 hours)

Pressure: 28.59in (968mb)

Sustained winds: 52mph (about 45KT) ESE
Wind gust: 104mph (about 90KT)

[HurricaneBill]

The eye is passing over Nadi.

[supercane4867]

Cyclone Evan is making landfall now, eyewall already went onshore

[supercane4867]

Landfall occurred?

[euro6208]

Equivalent of a Category 4 Typhoon/Hurricane and it's making landfall over Fiji's largest city, Nadi

04P EVAN.125kts-929mb-172S-1777E.

God bless Fiji!

[supercane4867]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 DEC 2012 Time : 013000 UTC
Lat : 17:34:57 S Lon : 177:32:02 E


TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
NO ADT ANALYSIS AVAILABLE

[euro6208]

this is one of the poorest looking category 4 i've ever seen...

[supercane4867]

this is one of the poorest looking category 4 i've ever seen...

It doesn't look that bad on visible, the outflow is very impressive

[Crostorm]

Cyclone Evan pushes into Nadi with hurricane force winds (+radar)
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/c ... m=facebook

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gh6S9D6Hs8A[/youtube]

[Crostorm]

[Crostorm]

WTPS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170600Z --- NEAR 17.9S 177.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 177.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.5S 176.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 21.0S 177.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 22.3S 177.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 23.6S 177.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 26.4S 177.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 29.2S 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 32.3S 175.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3S 177.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 15 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS TC 04P HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG THE COAST OF VITI LEVU,
FIJI AND HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM
BUT DUE TO THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING TO 125 KNOTS AT THE 170000Z
POSITION, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON THE OBSERVED WEAKENING TREND IN
MSI AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND NFFN. OBSERVATIONS
FROM NADI INDICATE WINDS NEAR 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 82 KNOTS AT
0600Z. BASED ON THIS DATA THE WIND FIELD HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER TC 04P, PROVIDING AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING ENHANCED BY A SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE
SOUTH AND LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. TC 04P CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR),
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF FIJI. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY
OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN AUSTRALIA, IS FORECAST TO ERODE THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR, CAUSING THE STR TO BECOME MORE MERIDIONALLY
ALIGNED, ALLOWING TC 04P TO TRACK SOUTHWARD BEYOND TAU 24. A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH TAU 48 IS FORECAST AS VWS OFFSETS THE
FAVORABLE OUTFLOW FROM THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BEYOND TAU 48,
STRONGER VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ACCELERATE
THE WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND TAU 96 AS
INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH STARTS TO SHIFT
THE SYSTEM TO A COLD CORE LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM, WHICH SHOWS A MORE AGGRESSIVE WESTWARD
TURN INTO THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. DUE TO THE TIGHT
AGREEMENT AMONG THE OTHER CONSENSUS MEMBERS, FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 40 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//
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