Texas Winter 2012-2013

[NDG]

Exactly my point, we here in the deep south do not get much out of a -AO with such a negative PNA pattern we have seen so far, which has taken even the CPC by surprise.
It seems that you need a strong 1050mb+ Arctic surface high to beat the pattern we are in to make it to us.

Of course, it's hard to see direct impacts in the south as you mention. The PNA will flip sometime this winter even if briefly, the cold Canadian air is better poised for it. Example of the AO influence will be just before Christmas as the eastern trough will send some cold south from the Northeast into Florida. A freeze might even occur just before Christmas into Central Florida in split flow which is not conducive to cold air there normally but source region allows.

Freeze into central FL before Christmas? I do not see that happening, the Euro and even to some point the GFS have been horrible in their medium range forecast of wanting to deepen a trough over the SE US but has not happened yet. If anything both models have already started backing off of freezing temps for central FL next weekend. Mid to upper 30s for the usual cold spots like Ocala seems to be the coldest central FL will get for next Saturday morning with the rest of us in the 40s for lows.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

What were the early 60's (1960 - 1965) like for Texas? Up here we are seeing a lot of similarities to that time period.

I'm not sure about the temperatures, but I know 1963-1964 DFW had it's greatest single snowfall event (prior to 2009) =). What's the lowest temperature you've seen up there in Moose Jaw this winter?

Arctic Air that we've already received;
minus 25 with a windchill of minus 41

Given that you picked 1963-64 I'll put this up here too (for those that don't sneak a peak in the Global Forum)

On Track for the Whitest Christmas Ever"
by Dustin Gill MJTH Dec. 15, 2012

David Phillips, the senior climatologist for Environment Canada, has good news and bad news for Moose Javians.

“The bad news is that winter officially arrives a week from (Friday),” said Phillips. “I’m really scratching the surface here to give you some good news, but not only are you going to assure yourself of a white Christmas, probably a white Easter too , but also that a week from today we can say that the days are going to start getting longer.”

The winter solstice on Dec. 21 heralds in the official season of winter, and with it the days get longer, but along with this bit of “good news" comes some old folklore wisdom, said Phillips.

“As the days lengthen, the cold strengthens," he said. "So we know we’re still probably a month away until we reach the coldest moment, but we need to get buoyed by that fact that everyday after next Friday we’re going to see more daylight.”

Philips said that so far the Moose Jaw area has seen around 60 cm of snowfall with 25 cm still on the ground, “the most you’ve ever had on this day in history,” he said.

He also said that if we hold on to the snow we have now, we’re just eight centimeters away from having the highest recorded snowfall for this time of year in history, which was 33 cm on the ground in 1964.

“So not quite they’re yet, but give it time. You’ve got a week to go and you might just break that record,” said Phillips. “We want to be able to brag to our grandchildren that we survived the winter of 2012, and you possibly could see that winter and cheer for the whitest Christmas ever, but come Boxing Day wish for it to be gone.”

[Ntxw]

Freeze into central FL before Christmas? I do not see that happening, the Euro and even to some point the GFS have been horrible in their medium range forecast of wanting to deepen a trough over the SE US but has not happened yet. If anything both models have already started backing off of freezing temps for central FL next weekend. Mid to upper 30s for the usual cold spots like Ocala seems to be the coldest central FL will get for next Saturday morning with the rest of us in the 40s for lows.

I'm not predicting it. It was statement to show what influences the AO may have regarding source region, whether or not there is a freeze there is up to one's interpretation of the models.

And to SasketchewanScreamer, it does get cold in January! But Feb seems to be the month of choice lately!

[Portastorm]

Taking a 30,000-foot view ... I understand the frustration I've seen here this morning. If you're regular posters/lurkers here, you see when each of us posts about a particular model run and perhaps expectations get raised. One lesson you gotta learn in this gig is that one model run doesn't mean too much at all. Computer models always have to be compared to the ongoing trends and the larger atmospheric signals. And when you are dealing with a pattern like we have, the models really struggle because there are a lot of conflicting signals out there. A good example of this is today's 0z and 6z GFS operational runs. You couldn't ask for two more different scenarios in the Plains than what they show. No consistency whatsoever. Good sign that the models are struggling to figure it all out.

I'm still fairly confident that the odds of Texas seeing a strong cold front and maybe even Arctic air around Christmas are good. One reason why is what I'm including below, the 12z GFS' progged 500mb flow for 12/30. Yes, it is in "la-la land" but all of the models have been suggesting a transition to this kind of flow late in the period. It is the classic "split-flow" with Arctic air flowing south out of Canada into the central US.



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[NDG]

That I do agree, might be a good recipe for a shallow Arctic airmass to come down the plains all the way down to TX and parts of the central gulf coast but usually run out of steam as it gets to FL.

[iorange55]

12z GFS looks better for cold weather fans and people who want some rain! Now we just need to keep the trend going, and maybe even throw in a few snowflakes!

[Rgv20]

12zECMWF forecasting a pretty potent storm right around Christmas

12zECMWF forecast 500mb Heights Day 9


12zECMWF Forecast 500mb Heights Day 10


12zECMWF Forecast 850mb Temperature Anomalies by next Wednesday Morning...That is cold!

[Portastorm]

And if you look at the end of that 12z Euro run (216-240 hrs), it shows a classic Arctic outbreak ... yes I'm using that particular phrase! ... into the southern Plains and Texas. The 12z GFS op run showed the same but a few days after the Euro. Will be interesting to watch in the days ahead to see if this continues or not.

[Rgv20]

Looking at the 12zGFS Ensembles and 0zECMWF Ensembles it looks like a stormier pattern is on tap as we head until Christmas.


12zGFS Ensembles Forecast 500mb Height Anomalies on Christmas Eve....Negative Heights Anomalies means that a storm is more likely present.



0zECMWF Ensembles Forecast 500mb Height Anomalies on Christmas Eve....In great agreement with the GFS Ensembles.

[Ntxw]

He also said that if we hold on to the snow we have now, we’re just eight centimeters away from having the highest recorded snowfall for this time of year in history, which was 33 cm on the ground in 1964.

That certainly gave me a smile! Boy you are good . 1963-1964 wasn't a strong analog of mine (64-65 in your case), but I haven't dove into it much yet, I'm sure it's purely anomalous coincidence.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

He also said that if we hold on to the snow we have now, we’re just eight centimeters away from having the highest recorded snowfall for this time of year in history, which was 33 cm on the ground in 1964.

That certainly gave me a smile! Boy you are good . 1963-1964 wasn't a strong analog of mine (64-65 in your case), but I haven't dove into it much yet, I'm sure it's purely anomalous coincidence.

Thought it might give you hope!

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

And if you look at the end of that 12z Euro run (216-240 hrs), it shows a classic Arctic outbreak ... yes I'm using that particular phrase! ... into the southern Plains and Texas. The 12z GFS op run showed the same but a few days after the Euro. Will be interesting to watch in the days ahead to see if this continues or not.

It just looks like a moderate Canadian front to me, Portastorm. 1040mb high over North Dakota sliding southeastward. Storm system over IL/ID border causing some snow up there around the Great Lakes, perhaps a good bit of it. I'm really liking this fall weather so far. Too bad it has to end next week. Can't stop the calendar...

[Rgv20]

Interesting trend from the CFSv2 for the Month of January......The past few days it has been trending colder for January


Today's Run 12/16



Monday's Run 12/10

[DonWrk]

Interesting I was just looking at the forecast about 45 minutes north of me across the red river where I hunt and for Wednesday it says high of 71 20% chance of rain and Wednesday night 20% chance of rain and snow low of 31. Usually don't see them throw that out there.

[Ntxw]

Another day of models another set of flip flops! Could be handy in the warm weather we're experiencing huh? Christmas is getting into the range of decent resolution of the GFS (not that it makes it any more believable). I've heard Larry Cosgrove and various other people mention that a significant storm may be in the cards to finish the pattern change that began around the 7-10th. The storm of suspect should cross the country +- the Holiday. Hopefully it will break the flood gates held back by the -PNA persistence since early November once and for all!

Anyone making plans for trips, things should be okay leading up to it, but the trip back bares watch.

[MississippiWx]

The 0z Euro sure is eye-candy for you Texans. The trajectory is to the east, so I'm drooling at the idea as well. Unfortunately, Day 9 and 10 just isn't as reliable as we'd like to believe! Starting at Day 8, however, I noticed a nice big high pressure system sitting off/right on the coast of Northern California. Time for the Euro to latch onto this idea and stick with it! The Euro has been flippy-floppy lately in the long term. I say it's high time that it nails one of these long-range predictions.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif

[somethingfunny]

The 0z Euro sure is eye-candy for you Texans. The trajectory is to the east, so I'm drooling at the idea as well. Unfortunately, Day 9 and 10 just isn't as reliable as we'd like to believe! Starting at Day 8, however, I noticed a nice big high pressure system sitting off/right on the coast of Northern California. Time for the Euro to latch onto this idea and stick with it! The Euro has been flippy-floppy lately in the long term. I say it's high time that it nails one of these long-range predictions.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif

[Rgv20]

0zECMWF 850mb Temperature Anomalies by Day 10

[wxman57]

You folks up in Oklahoma and along the Red River might be interested in the 00Z Euro's forecast for snow on the 25th/26th. Note that the map below depicts 24hr snowfall but it's the liquid equivalent in millimeters. 25mm = about 1" liquid = about 7-10" of snow, typically. It shows up to 35mm of liquid over OK, maybe 10-15" snow.

[iorange55]

Oh, no! Even Wxman is teasing people with maps now. I'll be spending Christmas and the day after with some family who live just outside of Decatur. Let's keep the trend going!

Model watch Christmas 2012 has officially started.