Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Portastorm]

I'm always going to side with King Euro if there is model disagreement with the GFS. It continues to be the best skilled model at 5-6 days out.

Meanwhile, y'all have already shared what the great mets at NWSFO Dallas/Fort Worth have written this afternoon. Here is a sampling from other Texas offices as they look to next week's potential winter excitement:

Houston/Galveston:
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO HINT AT AN ACTIVE PERIOD RIGHT AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH THIS WEATHER WILL AFFECT SANTA`S FLIGHT PATH BUT TRENDS
NOT LOOKING PROMISING ATTM.

San Angelo:
NOW THAT WE ARE PAST THE MIDPOINT OF DECEMBER...THE WEATHER
FORECAST FOR CHRISTMAS IS BEGINNING TO COME INTO PLAY. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING A STRONG TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES BY 00Z TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
SMALLER SCALE FEATURES BUT THIS IS TO BE EXPECTED AT F180. THE
ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT /AND DEEPER WITH THE
SURFACE LOW/ WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR
TUESDAY. NEITHER OF THE MODELS DEVELOP MUCH QPF OVER THE
CWA...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE EFFECTIVELY SWAPPED ROLES TODAY...WITH THE
GFS BEING THE DEEPEST OF THE TWO...WITH REGARD TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.. THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION
DOES EXIST BUT IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT AT THIS JUNCTURE. IT
WILL REQUIRE A WATCHFUL EYE OVER THE COMING DAYS.

Lubbock:
INTERESTING SYSTEM TO WATCH AT THE VERY END OF
THE PERIOD...IE MONDAY AND BEYOND. CERTAINLY WAY TOO EARLY TO PUT
VERY MUCH FAITH IN SPECIFICS BUT ECMWF AND GFS HAVE COME A LITTLE
MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z RUNS WITH DEPICTION OF DEEPENING UPPER LOW
DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
GIVEN DRY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...WILL NOT INSERT MENTIONABLE POPS AT
THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN THE UPCOMING CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY THIS SYSTEM
CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING.

[Ntxw]

Blizzard and winter storm watches in Kansas for this week's storm (the one mentioned last week as the 17-18th+-). Our snow cover is creeping closer.

[somethingfunny]

Wow. Even if it doesn't verify for Texas, it's really starting to look like a significant winter storm will affect a large area of the country just after Christmas.

[iorange55]

Blizzard and winter storm watches in Kansas for this week's storm (the one mentioned last week as the 17-18th+-). Our snow cover is creeping closer.

Very good point, Ntxw! It looks like things (might) be coming together for a big storm in the southern plains. Now all we need is that guy from Wichita Falls to come around again.

[HockeyTx82]

Blizzard and winter storm watches in Kansas for this week's storm (the one mentioned last week as the 17-18th+-). Our snow cover is creeping closer.

Very good point, Ntxw! It looks like things (might) be coming together for a big storm in the southern plains. Now all we need is that guy from Wichita Falls to come around again.

No kidding, I remember that guy. His maps were dead on. What ever came of him?

[aggiecutter]

Anyone good at reading severe weather charts have an input?

Looks like there will be a lot of divergence "lift" in the atmosphere ahead of the low pressure system. If the today's 12z GFS run verifies, I wound not be surprised to see a severe weather outbreak in the warm sector of the storm.

I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts.

[DonWrk]

Blizzard and winter storm watches in Kansas for this week's storm (the one mentioned last week as the 17-18th+-). Our snow cover is creeping closer.

Very good point, Ntxw! It looks like things (might) be coming together for a big storm in the southern plains. Now all we need is that guy from Wichita Falls to come around again.

No kidding, I remember that guy. His maps were dead on. What ever came of him?

Haha this gets brought up every year. I don't know the full story or I would explain.

[Ntxw]

Portastorm doing some work on the 18z

[Portastorm]

As a matter of fact, I drew that map!

Y'all are referring to "msstateguy83" from Wichita Falls, Tx. He was a prominent poster during the winter of 2009-2010. You will recall that North Texas had several great snowstorms that winter and he accurately predicted the first ones, despite many of us (including me) telling him he was nuts. I don't know how or why he nailed those forecasts but to his credit, he did. However, later on that winter he ran afoul of forum rules when he clashed with other members and some of our pro mets. He decided to leave the forum after that.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Is the 18z serious? Holy moly. That would bring frozen stuff to SE Texas im sure

Edit: The analogs popping up from 6 to 10 day are pretty interesting

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... og.off.gif

[Turtle]

Is the 18z serious? Holy moly. That would bring frozen stuff to SE Texas im sure

Edit: The analogs popping up from 6 to 10 day are pretty interesting

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... og.off.gif

What does each ring of blue mean on that map?

I'm getting excited too. But living in Texas we can't get too excited because models flip flop all the time.

[Ntxw]

What does each ring of blue mean on that map?

I'm getting excited too. But living in Texas we can't get too excited because models flip flop all the time.

It's the years with a similar pattern set up regarding height fields. Blues are low heights (troughs) and reds are higher heights (ridge). Those analogs suggest cross polar flow and a southern storm track.

That is partly why I mentioned I do not believe the models that go north. This is ideal for them to trend south as we grow near due to the blocks involved. A path across Texas to the mid south is more likely than Colorado to the Great Lakes.

[weatherguy425]

Unfortunately, I'll be back in SETX for this storm system. However, I love the GFS' idea of holding back energy to the west as we continue to have reinforcing shots of cooler air intrude the central/southern plains through January 1st.

[orangeblood]

Anyone checked out the 18Z GFS ensembles yet ?? For the 1st time this year it pumps the Alaskan Ridge and opens the Siberian Express up to spill straight down into the snow covered Plains. The ensemble mean suggest temps some 15-25 F below normal towards the beginning of the new year. If the mean is already showing this, there are some very extreme members showing temps we haven't seen in a long long time. IMO, this does seems plausible considering the extreme cold across Eastern Siberia at this time.

Buckle up, this could be a wild ride coming up over the next few weeks!!


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ntxw]

IMO, this does seems plausible considering the extreme cold across Eastern Siberia at this time.

In the 3 years or so I've followed this board, I've never seen such expanse of frigid air outside of Antarctica (models says it will get even colder). Canada is nothing to sleep at either.



The US is roughly the size of China.

[PTrackerLA]

Is it too early to tell if the models are showing snow or ice for the after Christmas storm for parts of Texas and south? Hopefully it's mainly snow but it seems we never know until the event gets close. Back in early 2011 we plenty of precip and cold temps all we got was about a .25" of ice...no fun!

[Ntxw]

Is it too early to tell if the models are showing snow or ice for the after Christmas storm for parts of Texas and south? Hopefully it's mainly snow but it seems we never know until the event gets close. Back in early 2011 we plenty of precip and cold temps all we got was about a .25" of ice...no fun!

Way too early, just know that a major storm will likely move across the country around Christmas. Precip types for various areas will depend on amount of cold and storm movement which we won't have the slightest clue until late this week.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Anyone checked out the 18Z GFS ensembles yet ?? For the 1st time this year it pumps the Alaskan Ridge and opens the Siberian Express up to spill straight down into the snow covered Plains. The ensemble mean suggest temps some 15-25 F below normal towards the beginning of the new year. If the mean is already showing this, there are some very extreme members showing temps we haven't seen in a long long time. IMO, this does seems plausible considering the extreme cold across Eastern Siberia at this time.

Buckle up, this could be a wild ride coming up over the next few weeks!!


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Its been very cold in that region for a very long time. It has to go somewhere.

[Rgv20]

Is it too early to tell if the models are showing snow or ice for the after Christmas storm for parts of Texas and south? Hopefully it's mainly snow but it seems we never know until the event gets close. Back in early 2011 we plenty of precip and cold temps all we got was about a .25" of ice...no fun!

Way too early, just know that a major storm will likely move across the country around Christmas. Precip types for various areas will depend on amount of cold and storm movement which we won't have the slightest clue until late this week.

Its going to be tough to forecast as this type of pattern is going to lead the models on a wild goose chase! For what is worth today's Monthly ECMWF forecast more cold weather as we head to the new year....Looks like fun times for us winter lovers!

[orangeblood]

Is it too early to tell if the models are showing snow or ice for the after Christmas storm for parts of Texas and south? Hopefully it's mainly snow but it seems we never know until the event gets close. Back in early 2011 we plenty of precip and cold temps all we got was about a .25" of ice...no fun!

Too early to tell, most of the time the models (this far out) have feedback problems in these situations when they try to run storms along the arctic boundary. The problems occur because they underestimate the southern push of the Arctic air and forecast storms further north than they actually end up being. Like Ntxw said earlier, I would suspect the models to trend further south with time as we get within the 5 day range. Once we get within that time period, we can start to pin point specific rain/ice/snow transitions areas.

Due to the massive block over Greenland into eastern Canada forcing energy to bundle underneath across the southern US, this has a chance to become a massive storm. I think everyone from I-10 north should pay close attention to this situation


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.