SPAC: Evan - Severe Tropical Cyclone

[Meow]

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[CrazyC83]

What was the lowest pressure recorded in Nadi?

[supercane4867]

What was the lowest pressure recorded in Nadi?

968mb recorded in this station, that's way higher than the estimated 929mb


http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/91680.html

[supercane4867]

Weakening and heading for New Zealand

[euro6208]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171800Z --- NEAR 19.7S 177.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 177.2E


REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 177.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM SOUTH
OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL
CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS
THE OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS BEGUN TO ELONGATE POLEWARD. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 171546Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, PHFO, AND
NFFN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOW 07 DEGREES
SOUTH OF AND OPENING DISTANCE FROM THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF
INCREASING (CURRENTLY AT 15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS THE OVERALL OUTFLOW IS FAST
DIMINISHING AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS DIGGING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. IN ADDITION TO INCREASING VWS, COOLING SSTS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE STEADY DECAY OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, TC 04P IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
BEFORE IT FULLY DISSIPATES. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SPREADS
OUT TO ABOUT 30 DEGREES WITH JGSM TO THE RIGHT AND WBAR TO THE LEFT
OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK
FORECAST THAT IS LAID VERY CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
180900Z AND 182100Z. //
NNNN

[HurricaneBill]

Cyclone Evan: Search For Samoan Fishers Called Off

That brings the death toll in Samoa to 14.

[HurricaneBill]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hpn5o88e0w0[/youtube]

[CrazyC83]

What was the lowest pressure recorded in Nadi?

968mb recorded in this station, that's way higher than the estimated 929mb


http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/91680.html

If that is fairly accurate, the central pressure I think would have been around 947mb or so when it passed the island, based on distance and size. That would suggest a lower intensity, around 100 kt or so.

[euro6208]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 21.0S 177.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 177.1E

REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 21.3S 177.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM SOUTH
OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC 04P
HAS CONTINUED TO ELONGATE POLEWARD WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE NORTH-
WESTERN QUADRANT HAS STARTED TO BECOME EXPOSED. THE INITIAL POSITION
WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 180418Z SSMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A
WELL-DEFINED WARM CENTER THAT IS WELL WEST OF THE OVER-SHOOTING
CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 95 KNOTS, WHICH IS
ON THE HIGH END OF MULTIPLE DVORAK ESTIMATES, AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO SPIN DOWN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 04P IS ENCOUNTERING
STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ACCOUNTING
FOR THE VERTICAL DISPLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM NOTED ABOVE. TC 04P IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF A DEEP-LAYER MERIDIONAL EXTENSION OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS NOW AN UNFAVORABLE 25
DEGREES CELSIUS, AND WILL DROP SHARPLY AS THE SYSTEM PASSES 25
DEGREES SOUTH LATITUDE. THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
ACCELERATE THE DISSIPATION OF TC 04P. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PRIOR TO REACHING 30 DEGREES SOUTH
LATITUDE NEAR TAU 72, AND SHOULD BE FULLY EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 96,
HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TC 04P WILL DISSIPATE BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO THIS TIME. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD
IN THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 72, HOWEVER OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 180600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z AND 190900Z.
//
NNNN

[supercane4867]

[CrazyC83]

Definitely starting to spin down and might even be starting to transition to extratropical. Looks to be about 75 kt now.

[supercane4867]

[euro6208]

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 23.4S 178.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 178.2E


REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 178.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM SOUTH
OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED, WITH THE
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION NOW DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY VERY STRONG (40-50 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND A 190402Z SSMI
37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE SYSTEM IS NOW
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL STEERING FLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES
AS WELL AS RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THAT THE SPIN-DOWN OF THE TIGHTLY WOUND
LLCC LAGS BEHIND THE OBSERVED DECREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE.
THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND TC 04P IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
WITH EVEN STRONGER VWS AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO
THE SOUTH. IN VIEW OF THE RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS, TD 04P
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, HOWEVER THE TRACKS ARE PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHWARD, INDICATIVE OF AN OVER-ANALYZED VORTEX FOLLOWING THE DEEP-
LAYER STEERING FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS BASED ON THE CURRENT OBSERVED MOTION AND THE EXPECTED LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. DESPITE THE SLIGHT DEVIATION FROM MODEL
CONSENSUS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT
192100Z.
//
NNNN

[supercane4867]

Final Warning

TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 022
WTPS31 PGTW 192100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 24.3S 178.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 24.3S 178.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 25.2S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 178.6E.

THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 20 FEET.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[supercane4867]

RIP

[HurricaneBill]

Evan will definitely be retired.