Florida Weather

[TheStormExpert]

So far two words to describe this winter here in West Palm Beach are PATHETIC & WARM! Usually by now we have dropped into the mid-upper 40's at least once here even as early as late November. But so far we've been lucky to drop down into the low 50's at night and daytime highs too haven't been any cooler than 70° so far! It's starting to really frustrate me especially since we are half way through December and have experienced August like weather with 4in. of rain last week! It's starting to look like last winter maybe even slightly worse this year again, and the inconsistency of the models is annoying due to the ENSO being Neutral.

[northjaxpro]

Well, the models have seemed to latch on to a mid level trough which will develop late this week in the Thursday - Saturday period across the Eastern U.S seaboard. Glancing at the GFS early today, as of right now it looks as the coldest of the air will remain to the north but it seems there will be just enough cool air to advect into at least the panhandle and nothern peninsula to possibly have a light freeze by Saturday morning. Early projections are calling for temperatures to be at or slightly below the freezing mark in the normally colder spots in North Florida.

The pattern looks to remain progressive in the coming days, so any cold air intrusions that attempt to come south will be short-lived. The NAO continues in its neutral phase and it looks to stay that way at least through the end of December.

[gsytch]

It appears the cold will once again be blunted east rather than south. The winds are trending W to E so cold air has a tougher time penetrating into FL. I am fine with that. Just wish that 4" of rain was here. We've seen about an inch total since Oct 2nd. One inch. My winter break starts Friday at 3pm (I am a teacher) so I'd like the two weeks to be pleasant to warmish, sunny. Just hoping.

[Patrick99]

Looking out to New Years Day, it just doesn't seem that any cold air will be making it to SFL. Outside of these little glancing "cool" days. But even those are getting quickly blunted by that persistent subtropical ridge.

[MiamiensisWx]

There are some indications that before settlement in South Florida, much of the region was actually wetter annually--with more precipitation. Perhaps development helped reduce the moisture flux that once characterized the regional hydrology. This hypothesis is interesting as South Florida has had even drier winters since development seized the region from 1970-2005. Drier conditions might also tend to induce a heat ridge along with the urban heat island, thus blunting or modifying, even preventing, sharper cold snaps, especially since the 1990s and the real-estate bubble. That is why less-developed Tampa and interior North/Central Florida still get as cold as they did in the 1890s while South FL sees fewer effects from recent cold snaps like those of 2008-09. In the 1890s-1960s, temperatures reached below 35°F in South Florida on numerous occasions, much more frequently than in the 2000s. Such occurrences are no longer the norm in the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-Palm Beach metro area.

[NDG]

Well of course growth of urban areas in S FL has most likely altered the temperatures in the winter from W Palm on southward but to say that it has also altered the precipitation during the winter, I do not buy that.

[gsytch]

They are pulling for 30's north and east of Tampa Bay this weekend, and probably around 42F here in New Port Richey. This cool snap should help to shut down some plants for a while. I worry when warmth sticks around, because plants grow then POW! a freeze. Whatever the result, urbanization has clearly affected climate. Despite our doubts, TIA (Tampa) is nowhere near as cold as it once was. St Pete also has unusually high lows during hard freezes, water effect or not.

[TheStormExpert]

The future for potential cold snaps & arctic cold air intrusions is looking very blah! The models are though trying to trend somewhat colder with the fronts that might potentially come through after Christmas, but they will most likely end up backing off and start trending warm just like the rest of the fronts we've so far had here in South Florida.

[JonathanBelles]

My latest blog post: http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... n-the-way/

[Patrick99]

I understand how dense development in the SE Florida metro area might blunt the effects of arctic air masses somewhat. What I don't get is how that would change rainfall patterns. How has it made our summers drier?

[JonathanBelles]

Tonight's post: http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... n-florida/

[Sanibel]

Looks like a glancer not a plunger.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Storm Reports:
http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... 03.1.99999

12/20/2012 1030 PM

3 miles ENE of Saint Peters, Pinellas County.

Marine tstm wind m40 mph, reported by ASOS.


The ASOS at Albert Whitted Airport reported a 40 mph gust
at 1030 PM EST.





12/20/2012 0930 PM

4 miles WNW of Clearwater, Pinellas County.

Marine tstm wind m44.00 mph, reported by mesonet.


Mesonet on Clearwater Beach near pier reported 44 mph
wind gust around 930 PM EST.




12/20/2012 1000 PM

4 miles WNW of Clearwater, Pinellas County.

Marine tstm wind m44.00 mph, reported by mesonet m39.00 mph, reported by mesonet.


Mesonet on Clearwater Beach near pier reported 39 mph
wind gust around 1000 PM EST.





12/20/2012 0930 PM

4 miles WNW of Clearwater, Pinellas County.

Marine tstm wind m44.00 mph, reported by mesonet.


Mesonet on Clearwater Beach near pier reported 44 mph
wind gust around 930 PM EST.





12/20/2012 0930 PM

4 miles WNW of Clearwater, Pinellas County.

Marine tstm wind m39.00 mph, reported by mesonet.


Mesonet on Clearwater Beach near pier reported 39 mph
wind gust around 930 PM EST.

[JonathanBelles]

Latest Post! Part Two of this Storm: http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... da-freeze/

[NDG]

Looks like yet another typical forecast in which the MOS guidance could be a good 3 degrees cold bias on its forecasted lows for tomorrow morning. Not unless winds totally collapse I do not see many areas where it is forecasted to drop into the upper 20s like Ocala. Sounding tonight shows an atmosphere well above freezing all the way up to H70, with winds staying up it should mix it down to the surface.

Sunday morning could be a frosty one along the I-4 corridor on northward on sheltered areas.

[gsytch]

Winds also stayed westerly, keeping my location mild at 51F right now (actually this is the low) while FAWN shows Hillsborough farm locales in the 30'sF. with Balm at 37F and down in Okeechobee city at 38F. The winds have already turned on the E coast to NE. The only thing that worries me is the calm winds tonight. Just had my upper teeth removed yesterday and obviously I am healing, so it is difficult for me to do much, but I did get my most sensitive orchids and plants in and heated GH for the night (although it is not needed this morning).

[northjaxpro]

Good morning! Currently 31.7 degrees on my themometer at my locale, the third freeze of the Fall/Winter season , but the first in about a month.

Thankfully, the winds stay up through the night to mix the atmosphere with the High Pressure axis still to the west of the area, or else we would have been looking at much colder temps than what we have now. Beautiful but chilly day today with max temps today only oin the md-uppper 50s.

High Pressure will move in closer to the peninsula today and by tonight will be positioned directly over the region. This will create a near ideal radiational cooling set-up with light to calm winds and expect colder temperature readings tomorrow morning. I expect to see upper 20s in locales across the Suwannee River Valley and the normally colder interior areas west of the St. Johns River in Northeast FL. Heavy frost will be likely in many areas also tomorrow morning,

Looking through the crystal ball for the next 10 days, it looks like the progressive and active pattern will continue. We have the next storm system forecast to develop Christmas Day over the Southern Plains moving through SE US and lifting northeast. That system will bring us another round of chilly weather by Friday. Thre models are also hinting at another strong system to come sometime around New Years Day.

[NDG]

Well, my instinct was right, temps this morning for the most part were 3-5 degrees above the forecasted lows.

With the surface high pressure centered to move over the Peninsula tonight, the only thing that could help from temps getting as cold as forecasted and from heavy frost developing over most of northern and central FL away from the immediate coast is if high clouds move in faster & thicker than forecasted.

[psyclone]

the lows in my area were a whopping 6-10 degrees warmer than forecast. That's the kind of bust i love. as much as i love warm weather, this cool snap is quite nice. it reminds me of a brisk fall day up north. good football weather. Christmas is looking very warm

[gsytch]

Bottomed out at 36F this morning. No frost noted. Yesterday was a balmy 47F same time as winds kept up slightly from the GOM. No frost noted. 20's in counties to the north of me, and 54F in St Pete????? Really? Who is on the Chamber of Commerce lol? Quick warmup today and no real cold for some time.