Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Ntxw]

How has the CFSv2 verified in the past, is it that accurate?

I don't know a lot about that model but for the past year it's weeklies did well forecasting the warmth especially last winter.

[MississippiWx]

18z GFS makes more sense than some previous runs of models today, but it is still taking the storm directly into the teeth of a blocking ridge. I see a track across Tennessee more accurate after traversing North Central Texas.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20121218/18/gfs_namer_204_500_vort_ht.gif

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose thinking more unsettled next week into January, possibly longer.

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The 18z GFS parked over Longview would dump so much goodness in East Tx

[Ntxw]

Interesting changes on the 0z GFS, it looks half like the euro

Edit: But unlike the Euro it still digs, thank god!

[Ntxw]

I think this run of the GFS is gonna be cold, it's much faster with the polar front. It's a bit different, and questionable but workable!

[Turtle]

Interesting changes on the 0z GFS, it looks half like the euro

Edit: But unlike the Euro it still digs, thank god!

That's good to hear. Since I can't read maps very well I usually look at the twisterdata maps for snowfall. Those come out like 30 minutes behind GFS.

[iorange55]

I think this run of the GFS is gonna be cold, it's much faster with the polar front. It's a bit different, and questionable but workable!

It's definitely coming in cold, and it's still digging down! The cold air it is showing up to the north is just ridiculous.

[Ntxw]

I think this run of the GFS is gonna be cold, it's much faster with the polar front. It's a bit different, and questionable but workable!

It's definitely coming in cold, and it's still digging down! The cold air it is showing up to the north is just ridiculous.

I think what the models are doing is not being able to figure out where this polar front will be. The Euro is not fast with it and tries to send a surface wave too quick before it heads south. The latest GFS is much faster and the storm is well behind it and we have a better solution for us.

Edit: And the GFS is not going to send it into the block, more east/southeast. Much better for dixie folks, more realistic!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Tonight we have blustery winds (from the NW)....where is that going to end up???

Wind : NW 22 km/h

[Ntxw]

Unfortunately now we have two completely different solutions, one way north one way south lol, can we ask for any better?

Hello Mississippi and Louisiana!

[iorange55]

Unfortunately now we have two completely different solutions, one way north one way south lol, can we ask for any better?

Most likely scenario...probably in the middle? I'd say it's more likely to go south than north, though.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

it better not come back here!

[HockeyTx82]

So question. As of now is trend that cold is coming for sure and precip is a maybe or both or lack of both? I know we are "model hugging" but overall are the run's showing up with cold? Are we talking any chance of pipe busting cold or just cold "seasonal" or slightly below? Just trying to make sure in all this excitement what the general consensus is.

[MississippiWx]

Wow, talk about extremes. From Chicago to New Orleans from the 12z run to the 0z run. However, I must say that I find the 0z run much more desirable.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20121219/00/gfs_namer_192_1000_850_thick.gif

[Ntxw]

So question. As of now is trend that cold is coming for sure and precip is a maybe or both or lack of both? I know we are "model hugging" but overall are the run's showing up with cold? Are we talking any chance of pipe busting cold or just cold "seasonal" or slightly below? Just trying to make sure in all this excitement what the general consensus is.

Cold is coming, if there is snow it will likely be pipe busting. If there is no snow it will be below normal. Still a storm, where it goes and what it does is beyond anyone's guess. Somebody, somewhere in the southern US will get snow out of it.

[iorange55]

So question. As of now is trend that cold is coming for sure and precip is a maybe or both or lack of both? I know we are "model hugging" but overall are the run's showing up with cold? Are we talking any chance of pipe busting cold or just cold "seasonal" or slightly below? Just trying to make sure in all this excitement what the general consensus is.

Well there are plenty of smarter people than me on this board, but here is the way I see it right now. The cold is coming for sure, and it should stick around for awhile. Pipe busting cold? Probably not, but I think it'll be colder than just your "seasonal" type of cold.

The Christmas storm? Who knows. Personally, I think the track is somewhere in between what the GFS and Euro are showing. I still think folks in North Texas and Oklahoma have a decent shot at some winter precip. It's important to remember that there will probably be more chances for winter precip after that, though. This is (hopefully) just the start of a good stretch of winter weather.

[weatherdude1108]

Hmmm. I don't like the last sentence that our New Braunfels folks threw in there. Dry and warm Christmas? What else is new?

Dont get to down Christmas is still 7 days away...we will see many flip flops with the models until then. 12zGFS Ensembles are all over the place with this feature so there are still many possible outcomes!

In the meantime we had a high of 88F after a low of 48F lol!!!!

Yeah, that last blurb of the earlier weather discussion got me emotional. Been an emotional rollercoaster with these silly models! The models need our patience.

Crazy day! We started out at 39 and got to 83, which broke the record here for this day of 82 in 1924. Relative humidity in the 20 percent range, which helped the diurnal spread.

C'mon Winter/rain!

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Here's a GFS member.
http://imageshack.us/a/img835/6134/imagebzt.jpg

[Ntxw]

I will say 0z GFS scenario is Houston miracle potential since they don't get a lot of snow down there!

But no wound up storm so no blizzard on it, early Dec 2008/2009 are good analogs for that run.